Implications of Paris Results of the 6 March 2017 Trondheim Workshop Jae Edmonds March 7, 2017

Implications of Paris Research and Workshop Series The Paris Agreement of 2015 Adopted by consensus on 12 December 2015 Opened for signature 22 April 2016 (Earth Day) in NYC Entered into force 4 November 2016 Left many of the details to be worked out later

Some remaining questions Nationally Determined Contributions are Goals, that need policies measures and business models to realize. Article 6 allows countries to jointly implement NDCs There will be a Global Stocktake in 2023 (and Facilitated Dialogue in 2018) 1.5 degree limit Source: http://www.carbon-mechanisms.de/en/introduction/the-paris-agreement-and-article-6/

The Implications of Paris Research and Workshop Series Approach Fill High-Priority Research Gaps—Identify important gaps in understanding and conduct research to help fill those gaps. Conduct Workshops— The workshops serve two functions. Identify the most important research gaps in our knowledge Communicate the most recent researcg findings to key decision makers The first workshop was held May 3-4 at the University of Maryland

The Research Agenda: While there are many specific topics the workshop identified 5 overarching questions How will national circumstances, institutions and goals influence the implementation of NDCs and what are their emissions implications? Can new international institutions make NDCs more effective? What are the best measures of progress toward long-term objectives for the Global Stocktake? Can Sustainable Development Goals be achieved simultaneously with the goals of the Paris Agreement? What roles will technology and control of non- energy emissions play in achieving NDCs and the long-term Paris goals? http://www.carbon-mechanisms.de/nc/en/publications/research/

An Example of work to inform one of these questions EXAMPLE Overarching question 1: 3. What are the best measures of progress toward long-term objectives for the Global Stocktake? Specific sub-question: How will increased ambition affect the likelihood of achieving the Paris Agreement’s long-term goals?

The Theme of the Trondheim Workshop—the Role of the Sectors Goal: To identify the research needed to better understand the Role Of The Sectors. Two important considerations What are the technical and technological requirements? What are the policies, measures and new business models that will be needed to achieve the near-term and long-term goals of the Paris Agreement?

How do the sectors fit together? Energy efficiency—reduce demand for energy as much as economical Decarbonize power generation Fossil fuel with CCS Renewable power Nuclear power Bioenergy Bioenergy with CCS Electrify Buildings and Industry as much as economical Decarbonize transport Electrify Biofuels H2 Halt deforestation/afforestation and continue improving crop yields Source: https://www.iea.org/media/news/2015/news/151104_webarticle_CO2_FINAL.pdf Source: http://www.energy.gov/science-innovation/energy-sources/renewable-energy/wind

How do the sectors fit together? The relative roles of sectors depend on many factors, not the least of which is technology Source: IPCC, AR5, SPM Is there a business model for negative emissions?

Sectoral mitigation: EU vs. India Source: Volker Krey. Used with permission

Power and Transport Electric Power Production Transport What is the role of the power sector in the near-term and long-term, in developing and developed economies? What are the technology deployments that will be needed? What policies, measures and business models will be needed? Given the large role of BECCS in most of the analyses, is there a business model that can deliver the goods? Transport How will the transport sector including passenger and freight transport decarbonize? Are there policies and business models that can transform the sector? Will these be viable across the full range of economies in the world?

Green Competitiveness under Diverse Policy and Market Drivers What are the new business models that will be needed? And how can a coherent approach be developed given the bottom-up nature of the Paris Agreement? Will national policies and measures and business models complement or frustrate local and regional efforts? Will national policies fit together in a coherent international regime?

Designing for Transformation: National ownership Stakeholder engagement and participation Establishment of a stable enabling environment for investment Alignment of financial incentives to address market distortions Strategic use of public resources to mobilize investment Investment in technology and innovation Use of innovative financial instruments and arrangements to catalyze investments Continuous learning and improvement In economics, transformation typically refers to structural change in the relative importance of economic sectors as a country’s economy, society, and institutions modernize and as resources shift to more productive sectors and activities (Breisinger and Diao 2008). More broadly, transformation is generally considered a long-term fundamental shift in a system, whether political, economic, social, or biological (see Table). Transformations are typically viewed as multi-actor, multi-scale processes, where the change is highly non-linear. Transformations require not only shifts in technologies, but changes in policy and culture. Transformations are multi-level and occur at multiple scales. According to O’Brien and Sygna,a transformation takes place in three nested spheres (Figure 2). At the center is the practical sphere, where technological innovation and behavioral change lead to measurable outcomes. In the middle is the political sphere, where financial, political, legal, social, economic, ecological, and cultural systems are changed. The outermost sphere is the personal, where deep-seated change in worldviews and values occurs. The nesting of these spheres is important—goals and targets are set in the practical sphere, enabling conditions are set in the political sphere, and individual and collective views of viable systems and solutions are set in the personal sphere. Changes in one sphere influence changes in others. By examining these interactions, it is possible to analyze the breadth and depth of transformations, and identify ways to influence transformations to ensure that they deliver the necessary goals. The word “transformation” is frequently used in the climate change context. For example, the Clean Technology Fund of the Climate Investment Funds seeks to “finance transformational actions” through a set of “transformational investments” in the power sector, transportation, and energy efficiency (CIFs 2008). The Green Climate Fund’s (GCF) Governing Instrument states that “the Fund will promote the paradigm shift towards low-emission and climate-resilient development pathways by providing support to developing countries to limit or reduce their greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt to the impacts of climate change (GCF 2011).” The GCF defines the paradigm shift potential as the degree to which the proposed activity can catalyze impact beyond a one-off project or program investment. In this sense, paradigm shift is synonymous with transformation. Source: Jennifer Layke. Used with permission Source: Westphal and Thwaites (2016) “Transformational Climate Finance: An Exploration of Low- Carbon Energy.” Washington, DC: World Resources Institute. Available online at http://www.wri.org/ publication/transformational-climate-finance.

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