Response to the Global Downturn: Where is hot and where is not? Presented by Adam Cross arc@lubs.leeds.ac.uk CIBUL Team: Prof. Peter Buckley, Prof. Jeremy Clegg, Hinrich Voss, Dr. Mario Kafouros, Dr. Eva Alfoldi International Enterprise Promotion Convention, 16th November 2009 Copyright: University of Leeds

Objectives To identify those countries that are likely to offer superior business opportunities for British companies following the 2008/09 Global Financial Crisis

Four stage screening process Basis Notes 1: Initial Screening The top 49 destinations for UK exports in 2008, plus Argentina, Indonesia and Venezuela (because of their share of global GDP) These countries account for around 95% of total UK exports and 90% of global GDP and therefore likely to represent the most attractive future opportunities. 2: Identify the Pre-Financial Crisis Position (2005-2007) An index calculated using: Mean of annual GDP relative to the UK (weighted 0.4) Mean of annual GDP per capita relative to the UK (weighted 0.2) Mean share in total UK exports (weighted 0.4) This produces a trade-weighted index that estimates market attractiveness of a country based on market size (calculated using IMF data) 3: Country Attractiveness Assessment Mean of annual GDP growth (weighted 0.3) Mean of annual GDP per capita growth (weighted 0.3) Mean share in world GDP (weighted 0.2) GDP per capita index (calculated as the national share of per capita GDP to the total GDP per capita of all shortlisted countries) (weighted 0.2) Calculated for three time periods (using IMF data): 2008-2009 (current position) 2010-2011 (immediate future) 2012-2014 (medium term future) 4: Identify Key Sub-national Locations Various means

Country Attractiveness Pre-Financial Crisis 2005-2007 Most attractive USA, Germany, France, Ireland, Netherlands, Belgium, Spain, Italy, China, Japan, Sweden, Switzerland, Canada India, UAE, Russia, Hong Kong, Australia, Norway, Denmark, Singapore, Korea, Turkey, Poland, Qatar, Brazil Attractive

Country Attractiveness – Immediate Future 2010-2011 Most attractive China, Qatar, USA, Angola, India, Korea, Libya, Japan, Indonesia, Russia, Pakistan, Ukraine, Mexico Poland, Egypt , Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Kuwait, Romania, Canada, Hong Kong, Turkey, South Africa, Cyprus, Iran, France Attractive

Country Attractiveness – Medium Term Future 2012-2014 Most attractive China, USA, India, Libya, Ukraine, Russia, Romania, Korea, Mexico, Singapore, Hong Kong, Thailand, Japan Pakistan, Malaysia, Indonesia, Egypt, Taiwan, Poland, Sweden, Nigeria, Hungary, Angola, Czech Republic, Brazil, UAE Attractive

Attractiveness of European Countries in 2012-14 Russia Moscow (1) St Petersburg (2) 1st richest city 2nd 3rd Other UK London (1) Birmingham (2) Manchester (3) Leeds Netherlands Rotterdam Amsterdam Germany Berlin (1) Hamburg (2) Munich (3) Cologne Poland Warsaw (1) Krakow (2) France Paris (1) Lyon (2) Lille (3) Others Stockholm Zurich Brussels Vienna Oslo Athens Copenhagen Helsinki Lisbon Spain Madrid (1) Barcelona (2) Italy Rome (1) Milan (2) Turin (3) Naples Turkey Istanbul (1) Ankara (2) Izmir (3) Identifying richest cities and urban areas in 2020 (source: www.citymayors.com)

Sub-national differences in economic performance: EU Source: OECD (2009) OECD Regions at a Glance 2009 Report available for download at: http://www.oecd.org/document/9/0,3343,en_2649_33735_42396233_1_1_1_1,00.html

Attractiveness of North American Countries in 2012-14 Most attractive 1st city 2nd city 3rd city Attractive Other Canada Toronto (1) Montreal (2) Vancouver (3) USA New York (1) Los Angeles (2) Chicago (3) Philadelphia Detroit Washington DC Boston Dallas/Fort Worth San Francisco/Oakland Miami San Diego Baltimore Cleveland Pittsburgh Houston Seattle Phoenix Minneapolis St Louis Tampa/St Petersburg Atlanta Denver Portland Mexico Mexico City (1) Monterrey (2) Guadalajara (3) Puebla Identifying richest cities and urban areas in 2020 (source: www.citymayors.com)

Sub-national differences in economic performance: USA (07/08) Denver Minneapolis St Louis Chicago (3) Detroit Cleveland Pittsburgh Seattle Portland Boston New York (1) San Francisco/Oakland Philadelphia Baltimore Los Angeles (2) Washington DC San Diego Phoenix Atlanta Dallas/Fort Worth Houston Tampa Miami Source: http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/regional/gdp_state/gsp_newsrelease.htm

Attractiveness of South American Countries in 2012-14 Venezuela Caracas Brazil Sao Paulo (1) Rio de Janeiro (2) Belo Horizonte (3) Fortaleza Recife Brasilia Curitiba Porto Alegre 1st city 2nd city 3rd city Other Argentina Buenos Aires Most attractive Attractive Identifying richest cities and urban areas in 2020 (source: www.citymayors.com)

Attractiveness of African Countries in 2012-14 Turkey Izmir (3) Ankara (2) Istanbul (1) Egypt Cairo (1) Alexandria (2) Saudi Arabia Riyadh(1) Jeddah (2) Nigeria Lagos (1) Kano (2) 1st city 2nd city Angola Luanda (1) 3rd city Other Most attractive South Africa Johannesburg (1) Cape Town (2) East Rand (3) Attractive Identifying richest cities and urban areas in 2020 (source: www.citymayors.com)

Attractiveness of Asian Countries in 2012-14 South Korea Seoul (1) Pusan (2) Taegu (3) Japan Tokyo (1) Osaka/Kobe (2) Fukuoka (3) Tehran Riyadh (1) Jeddah (2) China Hong Kong (1) Shanghai (1) Beijing (2) Guangzhou (3) Changchun Chengdu Chongqing Shenyang Tianjin Wuhan Xian Pakistan Karachi (1) Lahore (2) Faisalabad (3) India Mumbai (1) Delhi (2) Kolkata (3) Ahmadabad Bangalore Chennai Hyderabad Jaipur Pune Kanpur Lucknow Surat 1st 2nd 3rd Other Identifying richest cities and urban areas in 2020 (source: www.citymayors.com)

Attractiveness of SE Asia and Oceania Countries in 2012-14 Thailand Bangkok Singapore Indonesia Jakarta (1) Bandung (2) 1st city 2nd city 3rd city Australia Sydney (1) Melbourne (2) Other Most attractive Attractive Identifying richest cities and urban areas in 2020 (source: www.citymayors.com)