How useful and valid is the DTM? 06 November 2017 How useful and valid is the DTM? Learning Objectives: To evaluate the validity of the DTM Learning Outcomes: To analyse the DTM and consider its usefulness To answer an exam question accurately and peer assess it To answer an exam question amazingly and peer mark it

STARTER

Test your understanding! Complete the activity to see how much you remember and understand about the DTM and influences on the BR and DR

How useful is the DTM? It’s a universal concept – can potentially be applied to all countries around the world It provides a starting point for the study of demographic change over time Timescales are flexible Easy to understand Enables comparisons to be made demographically between countries The model shows change over time and can be seen as a predictor, with the expectation that each country will progress through the stages of the model. The flexibility of the time element is a positive, increasing the degree of ‘fit’. No 5th stage Some countries stuck in stage 2 Their death rates have fallen, but their birth rates remain high, due to cultural or religious reasons Model irons out major fluctuations caused by natural disasters It doesn’t include the impact of migration It is Eurocentric and assumes all countries will follow European sequence of socioeconomic changes. The evidence base being north European and so fitting western Europe and North America better than elsewhere; the links to industrialisation and progression make application in poorer countries more difficult The time scales for stage 2 and 3 in poorer areas of the world raise the question about progression through the stages; the cause of the change from stage 2 to 3 is also different – the role of population policies or continuing high levels of births for longer; the original absence of a fifth stage to take into account zero and negative growth Migration is not taken directly into account nor are areas with high rates of disease such as HIV/AIDS that causes a new impact on population.

The application of the DTM over the last few decades In the 1960’s it was noted that many countries in developed world had gone through first 4 stages Developing countries seemed to be in stage 2 – DR fallen but BR still vary high = rapid pop growth In the UK stage 2 took over 100 years to complete This was because social economic and technological changes were being gradually developed and introduced and death rate fell slowly In LEDW many countries have seen DR’s fall more quickly as these technologies were already in place BUT the BR has stayed very high so pop has increased rapidly.

Why do you think people hoped this would happen? Because of the readiness of modern technologies (medicine, contraception etc) it was hoped/expected that developing countries would pass through to stage 3 more quickly than UK Why do you think people hoped this would happen? China and many other developing countries introduced population policies for this reason – trying to force the country into stage 3

So… How have LEDCs compared to MEDCs when passing through the stages of the DTM? LEDCs mainly: 1 – Had higher BRs in stages 1 and 2 2 – Had much steeper fall in DR (and for different reasons) 3 – Had in some cases a larger base pop so the impact of high pop growth in stage 2 and early stage 3 has been far greater 4 – If in stage 3 – fall in fertility has been steeper 5 – Had a WEAKER RELATIONSHIP between pop change and economic dev. – govnt’s have played important role.

Very difficult to use, being almost as complex as reality. Why do we use models? “a simplified structuring of reality which presents supposedly significant features or relationships in a generalised form… as such they are valuable in obscuring incidental detail and in allowing fundamental aspects of reality to appear” Chorley and Hagget A good model should be able to stand being tested in the real world and should fall between two extremes: Very simplified and easy to work, but too generalised to be of real value Very difficult to use, being almost as complex as reality. MODEL

Your task: Complete the exam question. Examine the strengths and weaknesses of the Demographic Transition Model when used to study population change in MEDCs and LEDCs. (10 marks) Level 1 (Basic) (1-5 marks) Level 2 (Clear) (6-8 marks) Level 3 (Detailed) (9-10 marks) A simple response, which probably states that the model can be used to predict or describe vital rates and population growth over a period of time. Answers unlikely to differentiate between MEDCs and LEDCs. Rather unbalanced, probably towards the weaknesses of the model, there will be mention of both strengths and weaknesses of the model. The answer will demonstrate a clear understanding of the usefulness or limitations of the model. Reference will be made to MEDCs and LEDCs but there will only be implied differentiation. Substitute breadth for depth. A well-balanced response, with some good use of detail, e.g. relevant countries might be used as support. Both strengths and weaknesses will be considered equally in MEDCs and LEDCs. Want an ‘A’? use pages 162 – 163 to expand your answer

Peer assessment

POPULATION June 2011 (15 marks) 5 (c) Strengths likely to relate to the fact that all countries will fit model – exemplification likely with reference to specific countries at specific stages. The model shows change over time and can be seen as a predictor, with the expectation that each country will progress through the stages of the model. It is a good basis to compare countries to and offers reasons for progression through stages. The flexibility of the time element is a positive, increasing the degree of ‘fit’. Some countries such as those in north western Europe clearly fit the model and it explains the changes that occurred there. Weaknesses likely to relate to the evidence base being north European and so fitting western Europe and North America better than elsewhere; the links to industrialisation and progression make application in poorer countries more difficult; the time scales for stage 2 and 3 in poorer areas of the world raise the question about progression through the stages; the cause of the change from stage 2 to 3 is also different – the role of population policies or continuing high levels of births for longer; the original absence of a fifth stage to take into account zero and negative growth; migration is not taken directly into account nor are areas with high rates of disease such as HIV/AIDS that causes a new impact on population. POPULATION June 2011

POPULATION June 2011 Level 1 (Basic) 1-6 marks Describes the demographic transition model. Refers to either strengths or weaknesses. General, simple statements. Level 2 (Clear) 7-12 marks Clearly knows the demographic transition model. Uses this knowledge to exemplify strengths and weaknesses. There is likely to be imbalance between the two components. Begins to discuss. Occasional developed, illustrated statements. Level 3 (Detailed) 13-15 marks Response is purposeful in linking the demographic transition model to strengths and weaknesses. Account will be more balanced between the two components – but still emphasis on weaknesses likely. Discussion, debate is present. Some developed, illustrated statements using country/countries studied. POPULATION June 2011