Go West California February 2012 1 1.

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Presentation transcript:

Go West California February 2012 1 1

Global Economic Growth

Decelerating Not Collapsing World Economies Decelerating Not Collapsing 4 4

Avoid Recession Slower Growth Advanced Economies Avoid Recession Except Euro Slower Growth 6 6

Deteriorating External Environment Slower Domestic Demand Emerging Economies Weaker Growth Deteriorating External Environment Slower Domestic Demand 8 8

Lower Global Inflation Demand Softens Lower Comm. Prices Weaker Food Prices Volatile Oil Prices 9 9

U.S. Economy

Not Out of Woods 14 14

U.S. Labor Force: Millions

Illegal Aliens Apprehended

65+ 55+ 25-54 20-24 16-19

Housing’s GDP Share

Housing Affordability Index

Apartment Rent Increases Y/Y

Rent vs. Own

Rent Increases and Desire for Homeownership

Change In House Price

Home Prices w/ and w/o Distressed Sales

U.S. Economic Growth (% Change Year over Year) Forecast Zero

Will Euro Survive?

Recipe for Recession Credit Crunch Fiscal Restraint Low Confidence 34 34

Eurozone Economic Growth (% Change Year over Year) Forecast Zero

Eurozone Jobless Rate

Austerity Restructure Loans Fiscal Union Breakup What to Do? Austerity Restructure Loans Fiscal Union Breakup 37 37

Outstanding Debt by Country Ireland Portugal Greece Spain Italy Ire I

Asia: Go West

Asia’s Contribution to Global GDP Growth

Investments in Asia

Asia Place to Produce Invest Sell 42 42

Asia Not Just Cheap Goods 43 43

Computational Photography

Video 46 46

China

Who’s Bigger? China or Japan

U.S. Treasury Securities 8% of all 25% of foreign owned 50 50

China Big Consumer 51 51

China’s Love Affair with Cars

Buy a Car and Buy a Flat

China Inflation

Growth, Not Inflation

China Risks Europe Real Estate Local Gov’t Debt 57 57

Breakup Euro?

House Prices for Asian Cities

New Home Prices in China 70 Cities

China’s Trade Surplus

Chinese Currency Appreciation

China: Current Account Surplus % GDP 10.1% U.S. Says 2.7%

Japan Unemployment Rate

Recovery after Tsunami Japan Risks Exports to Europe Strong Yen Recovery after Tsunami 67 67

Wise, Strong, Rich

Risks Medium-term Euro: Sovereign Debt Crisis U.S and Japan: Deficits China: Real Estate Bubble Oil: Iran Supply Shock pan Weaker Food Prices Volatile Oil Prices 69 69

DrSohn.com (not Dr.Sohn.com) 70 70