Az orosz piac kihívásai 2015-ben Horváth Gergely

Elmúlt évek dinamikus növekedése Magyarországon 3. 14. * Előzetes adatok

Russia travel growth has been very strong… Total Russian outbound travel, 1990-2013 Overni ght visitor arrivals from Russia by destination World to Europe* 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 12% CAGR No. of outbound tourists (mns) 15% CAGR 2000 2005 2010 * Europe is defined as ETC members plus France, Netherlands and UK

… making a very large contribution to growth for all European sub-regions… Russian contribution to growth across Europe, 2008-13 % of total Europe inbound arrivals growth 2008-13 C/Baltic Europe C/E. Europe S/Med Europe Positive contribution N. Europe W. Europe 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

…with differences by country and city Russian contribution to growth for European cities, 2008-13 % of total inbound arrivals growth 2008-13, selected cities from Global City Travel database with large Russian visits Helsinki Sofia Tallin Riga Prague Madrid Vilnius Rome Vienna Lyon Istanbul Munich Barcelona Budapest Berlin Amsterdam Antalya Milan Paris London Positive contribution 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

European arrivals from Russia down in 2014… Visits from Russia to select destinations 2014, year-to-date*, % change year ago 50 40 30 20 10 -10 -20 -30 Russian visitor nights in select destinations 2014, year-to-date*, % change year ago 50 40 30 20 10 Serbia UK Iceland Italy Montenegro Turkey Cyprus Latvia Hungary Czech Rep Bulgaria Slovenia Greece Estonia Spain Austria Belgium Germany Romania Lithuania Switzerland Croatia Poland Malta Slovakia Serbia Italy Hungary Netherlands Belgium Germany Luxembourg Austria Czech Rep Estonia Denmark Lithuania Switzerland Latvia Spain Slovenia Poland Portugal Finland Malta Sweden Croatia Slovakia Norway -10 -20 -30 Source: TourMIS *date varies (Jan-Dec) by destination Source: TourMIS *date varies (Jan-Dec) by destination

…broadly in line with expectation Divergence of scenarios, ETC+3 arrivals Counterfactual Increased sanctions Latest data Current sanctions Conflict 24000 European arrivals from Russia (000s) 22000 20000 18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

But travel to Europe fell late in the year European travel from Russia & exchange rate Annual % change 8th September: Oil price drops below $100pb 20% 17th March: first travel bans and asset freezes imposed 27th November: Oil price below $75pb 10% 0% -10% -20% ETC+3 arrivals* ETC+3 excl Turkey Rouble v Euro -30% -40% -50% Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Source: TourMIS, Tourism Economics. * collated monthly TourMIS reporting, excludes some European destinations. Indicative of trend not growth rate

Oil price falls and collapse in rouble value… Russia: Rouble and oil US$/barrel RUB/US$ 120 30 RUB/US$ (RHS, inverted) 110 35 40 100 45 90 50 Oil price (LHS) 80 55 70 60 60 65 50 70 40 75 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics Jan-15

…are leading to deep recession… Russia: GDP and Oil Price % year Russia GDP 15% 140 Oil price, US$ pb 120 10% 100 5% 80 0% 60 -5% 40 -10% 20 Forecast -15% 2006 2008 2010 Source: Oxford Economics 2012 2014 2016 10

…not fully anticipated in prior scenarios… Russia: GDP forecast evolution % year 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% April 2014 forecast October 2014 forecast February 2015 forecast -4% -6% -8% Forecast -10% 2013 2014 Source: Oxford Economics 2015 2016

Tourism a key area for import substitution Russia: Domestic v Outbound Tourism % year Domestic Hotel Arrivals Russian Outbound Trips 35% 25% 15% 5% -5% -15% Forecast -25% 2006 2008 Source: Oxford Economics 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Further falls for Europe expected in 2015 Divergence of scenarios, ETC+3 arrivals Counterfactual Increased sanctions Latest trends Current sanctions Conflict 24000 European arrivals from Russia (000s) 22000 20000 18000 -25% 16000 14000 -40% 12000 10000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

With large divergence in country performance Arrivals from Russia: 2013-16 Cumulative arrivals falls/gains from Russia, % change over 3 years Slovakia Iceland Switzerland Belgium Luxembourg Sweden Slovenia Denmark Poland Montenegro Romania Germany Greece Spain Norway Finland Italy Netherlands Austria Turkey Hungary France Malta Lithuania Bulgaria Estonia Croatia Cyprus UK Czech Rep. Latvia -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10%

Russia arrivals pulling down 2015 performance ETC+3 tourism demand by origin % year Total arrivals From other ETC+3 markets From Long-haul From Other Europe 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% 2011 2012 Source : Tourism Economics 2013 2014 2015 2016

And risk of conflict remains Divergence of scenarios, ETC+3 arrivals Counterfactual Increased sanctions Latest trends Current sanctions Conflict New conflict 24000 European arrivals from Russia (000s) 22000 20000 18000 16000 14000 -50% 12000 10000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

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