China, Iran and the nuclear deal 2nd South Caucasus Security Forum (SCSF) 2014 “New Regional Security Environment and Global Changes“ China, Iran and the nuclear deal Erzsébet N. Rózsa Institute for Foreign Affairs and Trade Budapest, Hungary

The Iranian nuclear debate: points of reference for China Iran has and is able to operate the nuclear fuel cycle (except for reprocessing capabilities) – the U-route Khamenei: „we should rather be thankful for the sanctions … we would not be at this level otherwise” Zarif: „when the sanctions started, Iran had a couple of hundreds of centrifuges … now 18,000” The nuclear program is part of Iran’s regional power status – modernity is necessary „The Iranian program is peaceful” – even a civilian program is enough to ensure regional power status Iran’s aim is regime survival – now it is NOT in the interest of Iran to step over the nuclear threshold

China and the nuclear deal Part of the P5+1 – the responsible global player China voted for sanctions, but no rupture in bilateral relations Iran has an observer status in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization 2013 after the Third Plenum ended, China’s Vice Foreign Minister Li Baodong took over - Chinese ambassador to the UN and was present when the UN passed resolutions declaring sanctions against Iran High-level meetings: Rohani-Chinese President Xi Jinping (on the nuclear issue!), Larijani in China China is becoming increasingly proactive on the Iranian nuclear issue – main points: “Iran is entitled to peaceful use of nuclear energy, and should honor its international obligations.” “Final settlement of the Iran nuclear issue should depend on dialogue, negotiation and other means of cooperation.” “China does not favor unilateral sanctions against Iran.”

China and the Middle East a new actor in the Middle East, which traditionally never played a more than formal role in the Chinese relations Chinese reforms – opening: the need to satisfy the insatiable hunger of energy of the Chinese economy and the supply of energy resources more than 50% of the Chinese energy source import from the ME strategic positions along the main maritime supply routes BUT American presence in the region AND Russia trying to regain former positions – BUT two dimensions, where China has real chances: China politically and economically has been pushing to fill in the vacuum left by the Soviet Union/Russia, it takes on partners and interests that the United States cannot take on

China and Iran Similarities: China emerging global power (G-2) – Iran emerging regional power Both stand alone, practically without allies - world looks upon their expansion unfavourably, if not with outright hostility 21st century – gaining influence not necessarily by military means, but rather by economic expansion ancient civilizations - frequently referred to - perceptions of the surrounding world: China in the centre of the universe (Chungkuo) Iran – the „Islamic” revolution of Khomeini, Ahmadinejad

China and Iran (cont.) Differences rather connect than divide: BUT Iran oil and gas supplier – China oil and gas buyer In 2011 Iran was China's 3rd largest oil supplier China technology supplier – Iran technology buyer Early-mid-1990’s negotiations on China supplying nuclear power plants to Iran The Chinese model attraction in Iran BUT human rights spits: the abuse of which both countries are accused. While the Chinese leadership warned the Iranian government to honour the people's will following the Iranian elections, Iran, following the defeat of the demonstrations in Urumchi (Xinchiang) called on China to observe the rights of the Muslims Iranian controversy of cheep Chinese goods flooding the Iranian market RU, China, India to define Asian developments – plus Iran? (the CIRI concept) What does the US pivot to Asia mean for this relationship? Rather anti-Western rhetoric and behaviour „we have no clash of civilizations between us” According to many experts China has put its vote on Iran, and so far no turn from this policy can be detected.

Conclusion What does the US pivot to Asia mean for this relationship? Rather anti-Western rhetoric and behaviour „we have no clash of civilizations between us” According to many experts China has put its vote on Iran, and so far no turn from this policy can be detected Is China interested in a nuclear deal?