Transportation Engineering Approaches to Climate Resilience (TEACR) Rob Hyman, FHWA Good morning. I’m going to talk about why it’s important to think about climate changes in design, and FHWA’s approach to building examples and guides on how you might go about this. The handout folder in front of you includes information on studies and resources we’re involved in. I’m going to refer to a few of the projects and resources that are highlighted inside.

Lessons Learned Workshop TEACR Project Transportation Engineering Approaches to Climate Resilience Objective: Develop a state of practice set of approaches for using climate projections in engineering analyses for project development and scoping Performed by: ICF, PB, and SCE Gap Analysis Gap Analysis Workshop Case Studies Lessons Learned Workshop Synthesis Report Objectives: Standardize process for translating scientific climate projections into information applicable to project-level specifications and design Develop a state of the practice set of solutions and methodologies that engineers can use in developing transportation infrastructure Key Features: Stakeholder workshop to identify key gaps in current knowledge for addressing climate change at the project level 8 engineering + 4 economics case studies Development of synthesis report for transportation stakeholders summarizing best practices and lessons learned from case studies and other recent efforts Anticipated Completion Date: January 2017 Current Status: Case studies nearing completion Beginning development of synthesis document

Gaps Identified Working with future climate projections Choosing appropriate scenarios given the uncertainties Using 24-hour precipitation data constructively Assessing future soil moisture conditions given changes in temperature and precipitation How to incorporating climate change into analyses that don’t readily allow for it (e.g. regression equations) Engineering solutions for adaptation Developing approaches at varying levels of effort Looking at systems of assets Economic assessment Determining cost-effectiveness given uncertainty Costs/benefits of adaptive strategies

Case Study Analyses - Basic Steps Adaptation Decision-making Assessment Process (ADAP) Understand Site Context Document Facility Identify Climate Stressors Develop Climate Scenarios Assess Performance of the Facility Develop Adaptation Options Assess Performance of Adaptation Options Conduct Economic Analysis Additional Considerations Select a Course of Action Develop Facility Management Plan Key way this differs from a normal process is in Step 3&4…and then how you use that new information in Steps 5, 6, and 7.

Case Study Analyses - Basic Steps Adaptation Decision-making Assessment Process (ADAP) Understand Site Context Document Facility Identify Climate Stressors Develop Climate Scenarios Assess Performance of the Facility Develop Adaptation Options Assess Performance of Adaptation Options Conduct Economic Analysis Additional Considerations Select a Course of Action Develop Facility Management Plan Key way this differs from a normal process is in Step 3&4…and then how you use that new information in Steps 5, 6, and 7.

Case Study Analyses - Basic Steps Adaptation Decision-making Assessment Process (ADAP) Understand Site Context Document Facility Identify Climate Stressors Develop Climate Scenarios Assess Performance of the Facility Develop Adaptation Options Assess Performance of Adaptation Options Conduct Economic Analysis Additional Considerations Select a Course of Action Develop Facility Management Plan Key way this differs from a normal process is in Step 3&4…and then how you use that new information in Steps 5, 6, and 7.

Case Study Analyses - Basic Steps Adaptation Decision-making Assessment Process (ADAP) Understand Site Context Document Facility Identify Climate Stressors Develop Climate Scenarios Assess Performance of the Facility Develop Adaptation Options Assess Performance of Adaptation Options Conduct Economic Analysis Additional Considerations Select a Course of Action Develop Facility Management Plan Key way this differs from a normal process is in Step 3&4…and then how you use that new information in Steps 5, 6, and 7.

Case Study Analyses - Basic Steps Adaptation Decision-making Assessment Process (ADAP) Understand Site Context Document Facility Identify Climate Stressors Develop Climate Scenarios Assess Performance of the Facility Develop Adaptation Options Assess Performance of Adaptation Options Conduct Economic Analysis Additional Considerations Select a Course of Action Develop Facility Management Plan Key way this differs from a normal process is in Step 3&4…and then how you use that new information in Steps 5, 6, and 7.

Case Study Analyses - Basic Steps Adaptation Decision-making Assessment Process (ADAP) Understand Site Context Document Facility Identify Climate Stressors Develop Climate Scenarios Assess Performance of the Facility Develop Adaptation Options Assess Performance of Adaptation Options Conduct Economic Analysis Additional Considerations Select a Course of Action Develop Facility Management Plan Key way this differs from a normal process is in Step 3&4…and then how you use that new information in Steps 5, 6, and 7.

Engineering-Focused Case Studies From Multiple Projects So together, this adds up to a whole range of different assets around the country, with a pretty wide set of issues (not all hydraulic) We’re looking at a whole range of different assets around the country. We’ve been doing these assessments under various research projects -such as the one I mentioned earlier-for several years as part of a broad attempt to better understand the impact of climate change on the design process. The dots on this map don’t include all of the work we’ve done in the resilience area, but show many of the studies that are focused on the engineering design or resilience analysis process. Gulf Coast 2 Study Adaptation Pilots Post-Sandy Resiliency Study TEACR

TEACR Assessments Assessments: I-10 Bridge and wave action (AL) Pavement and permafrost thaw (AK) Living shoreline and sea level rise (NY) Pavement overwashing (FL) Pavement and drought (TX) Precipitation and slope stability (VA) Forest fire and debris loading (CO) Pavement and freeze-thaw (ME) The four boldfaced studies are the ones with a hydrologic focus – and not coincidentally are being presented in the two sessions that follow this one – Justin Lennon of PB will be talking about the Colorado forest fire and debris loading study in the session immediately following, and then Scott Douglas of South Coast Engineers will be talking about the three coastal studies in today’s final session.

Gulf Coast 2 Project (Mobile, AL) Climate changes examined: Temperature and precipitation statistically downscaled from GCMs Relative sea level rise scenarios based on range of recent global SLR scenarios plus local subsidence Storm surge modeling looked at range of storm intensities and included wave modeling Phase 1 Study Area Phase 2 Study Area Phase 1 – Provides an overview of climate change impacts on transportation infrastructure in central Gulf Coast, Houston to Mobile (completed 2008). The Phase 2 study is ongoing, and is focused on Mobile, AL. The first two tasks have been completed, and focused on developing information that will be used in the vulnerability assessment: A list of the key infrastructure in the region, for each mode (Task 1) Projections of climate change information for temperature, precipitation, sea level rise and storm impacts (Task 2) Information on the sensitivity of roads, bridges, port facilities, etc. to weather and climate impacts (Task 2) Tasks 3 and 4 are underway now. Gulf Coast 2 project is an in-depth vulnerability assessment of transportation system in Mobile, AL Initial vulnerability assessment recently completed Beginning detailed engineering analysis of select assets Developing tools that can be used by MPOs and DOTs around the country

Adaptation Pilots WSDOT WSDOT Oregon DOT NYSDOT Michigan DOT Maine DOT MnDOT MassDOT CalTrans, D1 CT DOT Iowa DOT NJTPA MTC MTC MD SHA VDOT Arizona DOT TNDOT AK This map shows the specific study locations, with the recent pilots shown in blue and five from 2010 and 2011 in orange. Vulnerability and/or adaptation Broad geographic coverage and range of impacts Furthering the state of practice in resilience to climate change NCTCOG 2010-11 Pilot 2013-14 Pilot AKDOT&PF/FLMA CAMPO Hillsborough MPO South Florida MPOs Oahu MPO HI

Post-Hurricane Sandy Resiliency Study Partners FHWA , FTA NY, NJ, and CT DOTs Metro area MPOs: NYMTC, NJTPA, SWRPA, and GBVMPO MTA, Port Authority Primary tasks Assessment of damages, lessons learned, gaps in climate analysis Analysis of adaptation options for 10 transportation assets (project level) Region-wide multimodal vulnerability assessment (systems level) Project Study Area “Superstorm Sandy” project Goal is to make the NY/NJ/CT transportation network more resilient to extreme weather and climate change as destroyed and damaged assets are rebuilt or retrofitted. Focus on both assessing vulnerability and identifying adaptations; both at system level and at an engineering level for a subset of assets.

Bringing It All Together: Synthesis Document Research/Guidance Gulf Coast 2 Study Engineering-focused Pilots Hurricane Sandy Project Engineering Assessments Study Guidance (HEC-25 & 17) So- bringing it all together… We’re going to capture what we’ve learned into a synthesis report, Engineering Approaches for Climate and Extreme Weather Resilience. Which we plan to release next year. This will be a synthesis that will point back to those individual case studies for those who want more detailed information. It won’t be guidance like the HECs, rather it will discuss sample methodologies and approaches. Our goal here today is Synthesis of Approaches for Incorporating Climate Change into Project Development (2017) TEACR Synthesis Document

Synthesis Document: Main Topic Areas Climate Stressors, Climate Scenarios, and Data Assessing Performance of Facility and Adaptation Options Pavements Geotech Slopes Subgrade Hydraulics Riverine Hydraulics Coastal Hydraulics/Coastal Engineering Structural and Mechanical Economic Analysis Hydraulics – Riverine - Culverts, bridges Coastal - Bridges and approaches, other roadway alignment

Cross-Cutting Lessons Learned Performance in past events can be useful in assessing future resilience Suggest need for collecting data on incidents Decision scaling – should match level of effort in analysis to the scale/importance/lifespan of asset Cost-effective adaptation solutions can be found: Phased adaptation Opportunistic adaptation Considering solutions from a system-level asset management perspective rather than asset-by-asset Past events – information on past problems is extremely helpful in understanding how future precipitation and flows are really going to impact a structure, but it is awfully hard to find systematic records of for instance under what conditions a given location flooded or a culvert overtopped, or Decision scaling – for instance, for less critical or less expensive assets, or those with a short lifespan, you might simplify the analysis by simply updating to the most recent historical climate data rather than working with projections Phased/opportunistic adaptation - Hopefully we aren’t creating the impression that these analyses are suggesting we should rip out existing infrastructure and replace it with something hardier. But Clearly

Thank You Schedule: More information: Case Studies Complete: Fall 2016 Synthesis Report Complete: Spring 2017 More information: fhwa.dot.gov/environment/climate_change/ adaptation/ongoing_and_current_research/teacr/ Robert.Hyman@dot.gov