Support to Aviation for Volcanic Ash Avoidance – SAVAA

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Presentation transcript:

Support to Aviation for Volcanic Ash Avoidance – SAVAA S. Eckhardt 1, A. J. Prata 1, A. Stohl 1, A. Richter 2, F. Buongiorno 2, P. Seibert 4 and C. Zehner 5 (1) Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU), Kjeller, Norway (sec@nilu.no), (2) University of Bremen, Germany, (3)INGV, Roma, Italy, (4) BOKU, Wien, Austria, (5) ESA, ESRIN, Frascati, Italy

Global Aviation Threat

Global Aviation Threat 70 active volcanoes around 1 eruption per week eruptions unpredictable, not many volcanoes monitored Costs for avoidance by higher fuel consumption Encountering ash: Costs for maintanance Engine failure – Safety risk

No uniform data delivery system Can satellite data provide a quantitative, timely and useful source of information to support aviation avoid volcanic hazards? Where are the gaps? No uniform data delivery system No standardized products (especially IR) No height information Ad hoc approach to trajectory/dispersion forecast (subjective method)

Our Approach – technical Combine satellite retrievals with dispersion model for injection height profile inversion Implement SO2/ash data products from IR sensors/link to existing UV SO2 products VAS3, FLEXVOL, Eumetcast demo systems Webportal delivery system User Workshops (feedback, improvements, acceptance)

Volcanic Ash and SO2 Support System VAS3 { Volcanic Ash and SO2 Support System VAS3 Seismic Trigger Start Event User alert Satellite alert Simulation Initiate FLEXVOL run Standard height run Satellite & Met data Webportal Inversion run Terminate Event

{ VAS3 Terminate Event Start Trigger Event Initiate FLEXVOL run Seismic Trigger Start Event User alert Satellite alert Simulation Initiate FLEXVOL run Standard height run Satellite & Met data Webportal Inversion run Terminate Event

Satellite Products - Visible

Volcanic Ash – Detection and Discrimination Prata, A. J., 1989, Infrared radiative transfer calculations for volcanic ash, Geophys. Res. Lett., 16(11), 1293-1296 T4 – T5 < 0

Better Identification of Ash - Exploiting high-spectral resolution data (AIRS and IASI)

Satellite Products - SEVIRI Quantitative Ash and SO2 Product Qualitative Ash Product

Satellite Products – MODIS

Satellite Products – AIRS infrared

{ VAS3 Terminate Event Start Trigger Event Initiate FLEXVOL run Seismic Trigger Start Event User Satellite alert Simulation Initiate FLEXVOL run Standard height run Satellite & Met data Webportal Inversion run Terminate Event

Different RELEASE heights

RELEASE height is critical Eruption

{ VAS3 Terminate Event Start Trigger Event Initiate FLEXVOL run Seismic Trigger Start Event User Satellite alert Simulation Initiate FLEXVOL run Standard height run Satellite & Met data Webportal Inversion run Terminate Event

Inverse Modelling – Analytical Method Sources x (1..n) xa a priory profile Satellite observation y0 (1..m) M Emission sensitivity Matrix (m  n), as obtained from FLEXPART σ standard error of observation Source-receptor matrix calculation with a Lagrangian particle dispersion model in backward mode, P. Seibert and A. Frank, ACP, 4, 51-63, 2004.

Eruption of Jebel al Tair September 30th, 2007 Jebel al Tair erupted, a SO2 plume was released into the atmosphere, observed from many satellite platforms over a period of 8 days

Emission Profile

CALIOP

CALIOP

CALIOP

CALIOP

CALIOP

CALIOP

Validation OMI - FLEXPART d) October 4th e) 5th f) 6th 1 mg/m2 FLEXPART SO2 30 mg/m2 FLEXPART SO2 October 1st b) 2nd c) 3rd

Validation of height with CALIPSO

Conclusion We will establish a system which brings together various satellite products for ash and SO2 Apply improved algorithm for ash detection based on both UV and infrared satellite images Developed an objective method for estimating emission profile. Were able to predict emission dispersion in vertical and horizontal resolution. Useful tool for better describing and forecasting extent of volcanic plumes

More Information Estimation of the vertical profile of sulfur dioxide injection into the atmosphere by a volcanic eruption using satellite column measurements and inverse transport modeling S. Eckhardt1, A. J. Prata1, P. Seibert2, K. Stebel1, and A. Stohl1 1Norwegian Institute for Air Research, Kjeller, Norway 2Inst. of Meteorology, Univ. of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna, Austria Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Volume: 8 Pages: 3881-3897 Published: 2008 Determination of the emission height profile of volcanic emissions using inverse modelling N.I. Kristansen Master Thesis at the University of Oslo