Disconnects in Sun-Climate Studies: Removing Politics from Science IPCC (2007) WG I’s discussion on solar forcing is largely political. A “magical” CO2 knob for controlling the weather and climate simply DOES NOT EXIST. Research on the role of the Sun on climate is making progress and the Sun is not DEAD (yet)! 1 1

#1 Lies by Skeptics !

“This [sun-induced climate change] theory is no longer viable” Ralph Cicerone, President US National Academy of Sciences Dec. 14, 2008 Taipei Times

What did the IPCC AR4 (2007) say about solar variability? “The estimates of long-term solar irradiance changes used in the TAR have been revised downwards, based on new studies indicating that bright solar faculae likely contributed a smaller irradiance increase since the Maunder Minimum than was originally suggested by the range of brightness in Sun-like stars (Hall and Lockwood, 2004; Y.-M. Wang et al., 2005).” (Chapter 2, Section 2.7, Page 188)

New IPCC AR4 (2007) Chapter 2, Section 2.7, Figure 2.17, Page 190 Old

The Bottom Line: The new study by Y. -M. Wang et al The Bottom Line: The new study by Y.-M. Wang et al. (2005) is based on a magnetic flux transport model that contains no radiative transfer module in the computer code!

Even future climate effects by solar irradiance have been predicted to be negligibly small! ??? Lean & Rind (2001) Science

Lean (2001; GRL, received August 23, 2001, accepted August 29, 2001) The Source of the Solar “Trend” Line: Lean (2001) Solar “trend” line!!! 1980 1990 2000 2010 Lean (2001; GRL, received August 23, 2001, accepted August 29, 2001)

Science or Politics: Which do you prefer? “The fact that some people could use Willson’s [increasing TSI] results as an excuse to do nothing about greenhouse gas emissions is one reason we felt we needed to look at the data ourselves. Since so much is riding on whether current climate change is natural or human-driven, it’s important that people hear that many in the scientific community don’t believe there is any significant long-term increase in solar output during the last 20 years.”–Judith Lean, 2003

Science or Politics: (continued) “It would be just as wrong to take this one result and use it as justification for doing nothing as it is wrong to force costly and difficult changes for greenhouse gas reductions per the Kyoto Accords, whose justification using the IPCC reports was more political science than real science.”–Dick Willson, 2003

LOOK: this suggests almost no role for orbital forcing! But the IPCC (2007) said CO2+CH4 are far more important than orbital forcing for large Glacial-Interglacial swings: This is Dangerous and Damaging Politics! LOOK: this suggests almost no role for orbital forcing! Figure 6.5 of AR4 (2007): p. 451

The Theory of Orbital Influences on Climate Milankovitch Variables Eccentricity – ~100,000 years Precession – 23,000 years Tilt – 41,000 years Orbital effects on climate are well-documented and widely accepted Indeed, Milutin Milankovitch codified the concept of the effect of orbital variations as a climate change mechanism to explain changes in glacial and inter-glacial periods – exceptionally long time scales. Milutin Milankovitch 1895-1945

But changes in local insolation at 65°N are over 100 W/m2! Important reminder/lesson on how the Earth’s climate system “sees” light from the Sun 0.6 W/m2 The net annual-mean, globally-averaged forcing is no more than 0.6 W/m2 over 1 million years! But changes in local insolation at 65°N are over 100 W/m2! 2 to 3 W/m2 Soon (2007) Physical Geography, vol. 28, 97-125

Extremely high CO2 levels during winter at SLC! Salt Lake City, UT 14

The CO2 dome phenomenon in large urban cities is caused by an ineffective CO2 sink during nighttime and during winter.

Utah History No urban CO2 dome – Low CO2 Urban CO2 dome – High CO2 Salt Lake Valley ~1870s Salt Lake Valley 2004 16

But where is the winter warming impact of the high CO2 levels at SLC in 2001-2008?

A Recent Global Warming Rally… 18

…And Former VP Gore Appeared! 19

The Sun is more likely the dominant driver of the recorded Arctic temperature variations

Source: Soon (2007)

Estimated radiative forcing at the top of atmosphere (W/m2) Solar versus CO2 radiative forcings over the past 150 years: Why the Sun is a more important climate driver! Estimated radiative forcing at the top of atmosphere (W/m2) IPCC (2007)

Brady-“Climate” Refrigerator Perry-“Sun” Willie-“CO2”

Reports of the death of the influence of our Sun on climate have been greatly exaggerated!

Disconnects in Sun-Climate Studies: Removing Politics from Science IPCC (2007) WG I’s discussion on solar forcing is largely political. A “magical” CO2 knob for controlling the weather and climate simply DOES NOT EXIST. Research on the role of the Sun on climate is making progress and the Sun is not DEAD (yet)! 29 29 29