Anwaar Abdullah Alsuleimani u106915 Political, Economic and Social Transformation in the Middle Eastern and North African Countries Anwaar Abdullah Alsuleimani u106915

Outline Introduction Historical Background Internal Dynamics of the Region and Democratization Can the People’s Movements in the MENA be defined as Revolution ? After “Arab Spring” Is Turkey an Example? Expectation

Introduction Fall of the regimes(Egypt+Tunisia),uprising brought changes in MENA Identity politics(after the collapse of Ottomans)+Economic troubles =motivates for developments. Poverty, rapid population, police state practice, human abuses /constituted regional dynamics of the change. Radical movements /dangerous dimentions(liberalization+democratization)

Historical Background Main Problems: Depending on the west. ( passive resistance from the people/repressive policies),increase the gap between people and government(ex, Egypt participation rate in election in 2005(25%),2010,=(35%) Identity. (Boundaries issue, mismatch between interests and identity) Is it impossible to build a nation based on Arab or Islam identities !/ UAR(1958-1961). Identity problem repressive policies legitimacy! instability in regional, international relations.)religious, secular, tribalist)

Historical Background\USSR Main reasons of collapse: Lost the arm race Social explosion (level of welfare) Globalization lose the control interaction between people collapse USSR+communist regimes in Eastern Europe/democratic. MENA remains with no changes/ social bursts! Rapid change /dangerous for Israel/continue to support repressive regimes/Transformation delayed.

2000s After the events of 9\11 Democracy (inevitable necessity) to avoid radicalism. GMEI(2004/Collin Powell)+MEPI(Participatory Governance, Economic Reform, Educational Advancement). G.W. Bush https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rp6WuTSTyS8

Reasons for rising democracy claims 1-Disconnection between regimes and the people which cause radical movements. -(Afghanistan) . 1990s threating the global energy security. 3-Survival of Israel. “accepted” democracy. 4-New markets and investment area.(before it captured by China and India)./ agreements! 2-Radical elements threating security (western presence in the region (anger)/democracy as a solution!). 5-China+Russia can reduce western sphere of influence.( control Ch,Ru,In/Muslim majority)

Rising of GPs (China, Russia, Turkey, Brazil, Iran)/ restrict effectiveness of the west. Damaging western interests by establishing relations with dictatorships in MENA./Syria Now! Democratic regimes must be found before GPs interfere. Is Democracy the solution! /failed situation: Afghanistan (2001). Iraq (2003). / What kind of Democracy ? Most important (institutionalization of democracy+ preventing terrorism).

Internal Dynamics of the Region and Democratization Egypt witnessed serious opposition movements. -Nasser era )7 attempts to kill the president, first one,1954) -Anwar Sadat.(Camp David agreement, 1978,Assocination 1981)/followed by Jamaa Islamiyya+demonstration( Muslim brothers, Wafd, union of democrats )

Hosni Mobarak: 2000/universities (Cairo.Mansourah,Alexandria)>al Aqsa Intifada+20 March change Movement 2004/Kifaya Movement (No renewal, No heritor)/Jamal Mobarak presidency. 2005/dependence of members of judiciary 2006 /labor strikes 2007/opposition group from different sections . 2008/Water revolution, farmer demonstration/ removal of fertilizer subsidies. 2010 election to replace upper house/Wafd, Karamah, Democratic Front,etc

Libya/ opponents were arrested in 1992 (over 500 people) Tunisia/ Rashid Ghannouchi,opposition leader were in exile(UK). Algeria, Yemen, Syria(opposition lead by Islamic movements). Gulf States! Rate Country Score 78 Kuwait 28 112 United Arab Emirates 45 114 Qatar 46 119 Oman 55 158 Saudi Arabia 83,25 173 Bahrain 125

Palestine-Israel issue /Deeping of the divergence Palestine-Israel issue /Deeping of the divergence.( Gaza siege, Operation Cast lead) (sentiments and feelings of the people) Passivity against government reaction towards US policies(limiting troops in Sinai, 1991 embargo against Iraq, silence against 2003 occupation) ( lead to more disconnection)

Police State MENA regimes preferred Police state, because they failed to solve legitimacy problem. Features of Police State: Torture Uncanny deaths Increase the number of policeman. Unquestionable government Repress freedom.

Broken monopoly, politician events(bribe) become more visible/ technology+ Globalization ( reduce the control of police state) Regime will not allow for such developments. Population+ oppression + economic weakness=terrorist attack/trade liberalization. Few Developments > most shares belong to the government. Bad condition =more movements.(socio economic condition matters)

Anger was directed to US/ support those regimes Anger was directed to US/ support those regimes. (public opinion support AlQaida) Obama’s addresses( Ankara+Cairo)/ democratization.( Trump!/attacks in Syria) Obstacle/ political and social structure Role of Internet, cellular phone, satellite Muhammed Buazizi. Arab Spring raised (passed over the shame of 67). /culture of defeat

Can the People’s Movements in the MENA be defined as Revolution ? Revolution/ sudden, radical, permanent change (Bolshevik revolution) Feature of revolution Occur because of the interplay between eco,pol,social factors. Existence of ideologies.( quest for welfare, freedom, equality) Revolutions are consequence of these ideologies. Violence Islamist,nationalist,tribalist/ not enough, but democracy, respect, quality./system does not matter anymore

Causes of Transformation: Arab nationalism become weak( 1967+oil revenue)/failed to bring developments. Education programs Information technologies(comparison to the west, blame regimes ) Globalization/lose control(transparent just election+democratic government)/to hold legitimacy Not revolution!/ instantaneous parts of a long range revolution Revolution!/ collapse of USSR+ qualified change in the regional international relation

Is it a coup d’etat! Foreign policy matters/US focused on public diplomacy to shape it policies rather than imposing them. People contribute to US policies. Despite all the anger against the west, still people of MENA demanding help from the west.

After “Arab Spring” Tunisia +/(New constitution 2014, dropping references to Islamic law+ freedom to worship) /bad economic situation (loan, unemployment 35%,) Egypt supreme Council of Armed Forces (SCAF) continues to run the country. 2012 election52% ,2014( first two days 2.27 %, bribes, day off, fined up 500 pounds/26.6%),unemployment 12.4%

Is Turkey an Example? Turkish democracy is partly successful./pioneer to MENA. After AKP raised to power/ increase level of interaction between MENA and Turkey./highest level Good example for Egypt/ Sunni majority. Clergy can't seize power in Sunni majority countries, but possible in Shia majority.. EX: Hezbollah in Lebanon Seize of power by a Sunni clergy/ exceptional and temporary case.

Expectation Democratic demands will not stop (bread, freedom.respect,justice) Democratization will increase.(globalization +technology) Regimes will try to contain the situation (balancing between freedom and security)/Gulf States. Role of Egypt Global powers will take demands of people into consideration./Israel.(review relation) hostility against the west (colonlism+support for Israel)

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