Office of Extraordinary Innovation On Autopilot…But Where To? Colin F. Peppard Office of Extraordinary Innovation Los Angeles County Metro Presented by: Assemblymember Adrin Nazarian July 14th, 2016

Modern Auto Travel is a Miracle… The automobile is one of the most transformational technologies ever created, enabling greater mobility than at any time in the history of humankind.

…and a Curse. Your car is also arguably one of the most underutilized, polluting, time-consuming, and dangerous machines on earth…

Can Both Be True? 23.8 billion hours of time operating a vehicle in CA Current Vehicle Mobility Model is Ripe for Disruption Underutilized <4% auto utilization in a 24 hour day Polluting 45% of global oil demand; >37% CA GHG emissions Time Consuming 23.8 billion hours of time operating a vehicle in CA Dangerous ~33,000 annual traffic deaths; ~3,000 in CA

AV Technologies Increase the Value Proposition of Autos More useful - More hours of total uptime… …requiring fewer hours of human time. Cleaner – Efficient operations, improved EV integration Safer – Humans are horrible drivers

Potential Benefits: More Utilization

Potential Benefits: Reduced Pollution

Potential Benefits: Time Savings

Potential Benefits: Safety

How AVs Deliver Benefits Depends on the Model

Potential Pathways to Adoption Closed Campuses Freight Vehicles Mobility Providers (Uber/Lyft) Limited Transit Use (First/Last Mile; BRT; Shuttle) Public Dealership Sales Full Transit Use Widespread Personal Use

Potential Timeframes

A Key Factor: Public Perception

Enthusiasm, Uncertainty

Mixed Reaction to Shared/Sourced AVs

Uncertainty Over Integration

Miles Are Increasing; But So Are SHARED Miles

More Households, More Cars: How Will They Be Used?

The Fate of EVs & AVs May Be Interdependent

So What Will it Mean? Two Possible Futures… Level of Vehicle and Ride Sharing 0% 100% Driverless Utopia Driverless Nightmare

Driverless Utopia Scenario A suite of cost-effective, reliable transportation options includes AV cars, but also AV micro-transit, bus, BRT, etc. Most cars are hired, most rides are shared Private cars are shared when not in use AVs connect with efficient high-capacity rapid transit Less road space, fewer GHGs, less parking needed

Driverless Nightmare Scenario AVs are dominant transportation option Most cars are owned, few rides are shared Vehicles to run personal errands, circulate, or park when not in use Travel distance increase due convenience Increased traffic and road capacity needs

Public Policy & Agency Action Will Set the Course “The state of autonomous vehicle technology seems likely to advance with or without legislative and agency actions… However, the manner in which autonomous vehicle technologies progress… depends heavily on these efforts. Intelligent planning, meaningful vision, and regulatory action and reform are all required.” - Eno Center for Transportation Preparing for Autonomous Vehicles: Opportunities, Barriers, and Policy Recommendations

Key Policy Questions How will deployment of AV technology be regulated? Will regulatory precautions delay AV deployment? Will design be impacted? Will certain users?

Key Policy Questions Will shared AVs be regulated differently than private vehicles? Will regulation of shared vehicles as public utility delay shared uses and accelerate private ownership models?

Key Policy Questions New insurance and enforcement mechanisms? Will citizens accept liability for a vehicle they can’t control? Will manufacturers?

Key Policy Questions Public Transit: Complement or competition? Can transit providers and shared-use AV mobility providers work together? Can transit operations and regulations be aligned with AV fleet operations and business models?

Thank You! Questions?