The analysis of air transport in Poland Poznań University of technology Institute of combustion engines and transport Authors: Jerzy Merkisz, Jacek Pielecha, Jarosław Markowski, Marta Galant, Remigiusz Jasiński, Dawid Gallas International Conference on Air Transport INAIR 2015, 12-13 November, Amsterdam

Agenda Introduction Polish airports Passenger transport in Poland National and international transport Structure of transport according to the business model Conclusions International Conference on Air Transport INAIR 2015, 12-13 November, Amsterdam

Introduction Air transport is the youngest and the most dynamically developing branch of transport, Air traffic in Europe is distributed very unevenly. More than half of it takes place in 7 major airports (London Heathrow, Frankfurt n / Main, Paris CDG, Amsterdam, Madrid, London Gatwick, Rome), And the 23 largest airports correspond to 66% of this movement, Unfortunately Chopin airport is in the 41st position  International Conference on Air Transport INAIR 2015, 12-13 November, Amsterdam

Introduction The leading companies in the production of aircraft regularly reports on the prospects for the development of the aviation market, 2014 2034 Large wide-body 740 670 Medium wide-body 1 620 3 800 Small wide-body 2 520 5 800 Single aisle 14 140 30 630 Regional jets 2 508 2 660 Total 21 600 43 560 -10% +135% +130% +117% +6% +102% Source: Boeing Current Market Outlook International Conference on Air Transport INAIR 2015, 12-13 November, Amsterdam

Introduction Source: Airbus Global Market Forecast International Conference on Air Transport INAIR 2015, 12-13 November, Amsterdam

Polish airports 14 (15) international airports, the ones that are closest to each other: Warsaw Chopin (EPWA) and Modlin (EPMO) Poznań (EPPO) and Zielona Góra (EPZG) Krakow (EPKK) and Pyrzowice (EPKT). Figure shows the road accessibility to airports within Polish borders. Based on the speed limits of different types of roads, the time it takes to reach each of the airports in Poland was calculated Aside from the residents of the most eastern parts of the Warmia-Mazury region and Podlasie region, Polish residents can reach the airport within 180 minutes, of which the vast majority in urban agglomerations reach the airport in less than an hour International Conference on Air Transport INAIR 2015, 12-13 November, Amsterdam

Polish airports In Poland we have: 38.5 mln people 15 airports 1 airport for every 2.5 mln people most passengers were serviced at the: Chopin Airport (10.7 million passengers) Kraków (3.6 million) Gdansk (2.8 million) at the other extreme were the airports: Zielona Gora with 10 thousand passengers throughout all of 2014 Radom Airport (opened in June 2014 – handled about 200 passengers) International Conference on Air Transport INAIR 2015, 12-13 November, Amsterdam

Structure International Conference on Air Transport INAIR 2015, 12-13 November, Amsterdam

Polish airports International Conference on Air Transport INAIR 2015, 12-13 November, Amsterdam

Polish airports vs Schiphol airport International Conference on Air Transport INAIR 2015, 12-13 November, Amsterdam

Polish airports vs others Source: Eurostat International Conference on Air Transport INAIR 2015, 12-13 November, Amsterdam

Polish airports The total result of all polish ports was slightly worse compared to European ports that are members of the ACI (Airport Council International), which recorded an increase of 2.8% The market leader - the Chopin airport recorded nearly 6-fold higher growth to comparable ports in ACI The results of regional airports in Poland remained at a level noticeably worse (-3.74%) in relation to the ports affiliated to ACI, serving less than 5 million passengers a year. International Conference on Air Transport INAIR 2015, 12-13 November, Amsterdam

Passenger transport in Poland Polish airports handled nearly 27 million passengers in 2014, a 8% increase over the previous year and more than 24% compared to 2011. The fourth quarter was mainly responsible for growth, which saw market growth of 10% compared to the same period in the previous year, of 18% compared to the same period in the previous year and over 26% compared to 2011. International Conference on Air Transport INAIR 2015, 12-13 November, Amsterdam

Passenger transport in Poland From May to July (2013) the market noted declines compared to the corresponding months of the previous year This situation was the result of a dynamic growth in the offer of national operations conducted by the carrier OLT in 2012 OLT Express was a Polish airline which first flight was done 1 April 2012 and on 27 July 2012 they filed for bankruptcy after its licence was suspended by the Polish Aviation Authority If you skip this carrier in the analysis, traffic growth can be seen for all months of 2013 An important aspect of the analysis of the Polish passenger market is its seasonal nature. Air traffic dynamics developed unevenly across the entire year of 2013 (Fig. 3). From May to July the market noted declines compared to the corresponding months of the previous year. This situation was the result of a dynamic growth in the offer of national operations conducted by the carrier OLT in 2012. If you skip this carrier in the analysis, traffic growth can be seen for all months of 2013. The dynamic growth of the operations carried out in the late spring and summer of 2012 affected the results of the seasonal operations. While in 2012, in the months of the summer season (April to October) the traffic was 2.25 times higher when compared to the winter months, in 2013 this ratio stood at 2.13. The result for year 2013 was almost identical to that of year 2011. International Conference on Air Transport INAIR 2015, 12-13 November, Amsterdam

National and international transport Comparision between 2012 and 2013 The dynamics of domestic transport (red bar graph) in Polish airports (-31.5%) was significantly lower compared to the ACI airports, which in this segment of traffic have not recorded changes in traffic volumes As mentioned earlier it was mainly the result of a lack of alternatives for OLT flights and a decline in offers from LOT Polish Airlines and Eurolot SA International transport in Poland (blue bar graph) recorded approx. 2-fold higher growth compared to international transport carried out by ACI ports The dynamics of domestic transport in Polish airports (-31.5%) was significantly lower compared to the ACI airports, which in this segment of traffic have not recorded changes in traffic volumes between the years 2012 and 2013. In total Polish domestic transport market decreased between 2012 and 2013 more than 1.1 million passengers. As mentioned earlier it was mainly the result of a lack of alternatives for OLT flights offered in 2012 and a decline in offers from LOT Polish Airlines and Eurolot SA. The reduction in traffic of both carriers in 2013 accounted for approx. 20% of the total drop in domestic traffic. Changes in the market also lead to changes in the structure of the national flight network and a greater concentration of this type of traffic in the airport of Warsaw. While in 2012 the Chopin airport handled 43% of domestic traffic, in 2013, this share was 47% International Conference on Air Transport INAIR 2015, 12-13 November, Amsterdam

Structure of transport according to the business model Low-cost carriers recorded a high increase in traffic +19%, Network and charter carriers have noted declines of 8% and 10% respectively Leader – Ryanair – reported an increase of 35% Second biggest increase was reported by Air Berlin Charter carriers (Bingo Airways, Travel Service and Small Planet) Emirates In total, these carriers were responsible for over 80% of new passenger market The largest decreases were recorded for PLL LOT airlines, Wizzair and Enter Air In 2013 significant changes in the structure of carriers depending on the business model can be observed in the Polish air transport market. This is due to significant differences in the dynamics of passenger movement. While low-cost carriers recorded a high increase in traffic (+ 19%), network and charter carriers have noted declines of 8% and 10% respectively (Fig. 9). Among the low-cost carriers who recorded the largest increases in traffic, Ryanair was the clear leader (an increase of 35%, more than 1.7 million passengers more than in 2012). Second, the biggest increase was realized by Air Berlin, which, according to the rules of CAA (Civil Aviation Authority) is also counted among the LCC line. Further down the line were freight charter carriers (Bingo Airways, Travel Service and Small Planet) and network carrier Emirates, they recorded large increases in traffic. In total, these carriers were responsible for over 80% of new passenger market. The largest decreases were recorded for PLL LOT airlines, Wizzair and Enter Air (Fig. 8). International Conference on Air Transport INAIR 2015, 12-13 November, Amsterdam

Structure of transport according to the business model Year after year, the share of charter flights falls (-18% in 2013 compared to 2011) The share of traditional carrier also decreased (almost 11% in 2013 compared to 2011) There is a significant increase in the share of LCC in polish air transport structure (20% increase in 2013 compared to 2011) International Conference on Air Transport INAIR 2015, 12-13 November, Amsterdam

LCC flight dynamics comparison The figure shows the comparison of flight dynamics of LCC in Europe and Poland Poland recorded an 18.59% increase in LCC flight dynamics. While Europe recorded just 4.41% in the corresponding time period It is worth noting that in large part the new offer of the carriers in Poland were to the Warsaw agglomeration. More than 60% of all new Ryanair passengers were handled at the Chopin Airport and at Modlin airport Significant increases among low-cost carriers were also recorded for Air Berlin and Easy Jet A significant reduction in traffic (approx. -3%) was recorded for Wizzair It should be noted, however, that Ryanair and Wizzair still account for nearly 90% of all low-cost transport in Poland Thanks to the dynamic growth in 2013, the carrier increased its share in the low-cost flights from 48% in 2012 to 55% in 2013. It is worth noting that in large part the new offer of the carrier was designated to the Warsaw agglomeration. More than 60% of all new Ryanair passengers were handled at the Chopin Airport in Modlin. Significant increases among low-cost carriers also recorded for Air Berlin, Easy Jet and Norwegian. These carriers serviced more than 260 thousand more passengers compared to 2012 (Fig. 10). A significant reduction in traffic (-3%, approx. 125 thousand passengers less compared to 2012) was recorded for Wizzair. The carrier reduced its share in low-cost transport from 41% in 2012 to 34% in 2013. It should be noted, however, that Ryanair and Wizzair still account for nearly 90% of all low-cost transport in Poland. International Conference on Air Transport INAIR 2015, 12-13 November, Amsterdam

Regular flight dynamics comparison Network carriers in Poland, same as elsewhere in Europe, decreased their operations in 2013, while the decline in the case of Poland was significantly greater To a large extent this was due to the lack of alternatives for OLT carrier in 2012. Skipping the OLT group in the analysis makes the reduction in network traffic amount to -4% In scheduled traffic a significant drop was recorded for other Polish carriers: LOT Polish Airlines, followed by Eurolot SA The biggest increases in 2013, were recorded by gulf carriers that are new on the Polish market: Emirates and Qatar Airways International Conference on Air Transport INAIR 2015, 12-13 November, Amsterdam

Conclusions Polish airports handled nearly 27 million passengers in 2014, an 8% increase over the previous year, The total result of all Polish ports was slightly worse compared to European ports that are members of ACI, Nevertheless, this should be considered a very good result, considering that in 2014 traffic was up by over 24% compared to 2011, International Conference on Air Transport INAIR 2015, 12-13 November, Amsterdam

Conclusions The lead in increases in passenger traffic belonged to the Chopin Airport, which in 2013 recorded an almost 6-fold higher increase in the number of passengers than for comparable ports in ACI, In contrast to the ACI ports the regional airports in Poland together recorded a decline in traffic of nearly 4%, International transport grew more dynamically in Poland than in Europe, mainly due to the expansion of low-cost carriers, Polish airports recorded an unprecedented (over 31%) decrease in domestic transport while at the ACI airports movement of this type has not changed. International Conference on Air Transport INAIR 2015, 12-13 November, Amsterdam

Conclusions – Polish Aviation Authority forecast International Conference on Air Transport INAIR 2015, 12-13 November, Amsterdam

Thank you for your attention International Conference on Air Transport INAIR 2015 12-13 November, Amsterdam