Strategies for Achieving Low-Carbon Cities A Pittsburgh’s Case Study Sep 10, 2009 Mike Blackhurst Carnegie Mellon University

Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Inventory (“Footprint”) Background Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Inventory (“Footprint”) Accounting of GHGs from a specified boundary Performed for a benchmark year Climate Action Plan (CAP) Outlines GHG reduction opportunities May include reduction targets and schedule 500 US Mayors committed to Greenhouse gas inventories Climate action plans (CAPs) Climate Action Plan (CAP) Establish emissions inventory Set future CO2 reduction goals Identify mitigation strategies Pittsburgh developed a CAP in 2008 Reduce text Re-organize slide caps – what is an action plan? Inventory, goals, mitigation Second bullet – pittsburgh did one -remove how can we help… Put numbers on slides

Pittsburgh’s Inventory & CAP (v1.0) CMU Class Project Pittsburgh’s Inventory & CAP (v1.0) Completed in 2008 2006 benchmark year Class Project Review Pgh inventory & CAP QA/QC inventory Outline analytical framework Provide supporting analysis Provide recommendations for future versions Climate Action Plan (CAP) Establish emissions inventory Set future CO2 reduction goals Identify mitigation strategies Pittsburgh developed a CAP in 2008 Reduce text Re-organize slide caps – what is an action plan? Inventory, goals, mitigation Second bullet – pittsburgh did one -remove how can we help… Put numbers on slides 3

Inventory QA Average = 15 Point of this slide – comparing pittsburgh to other cities Note on the Average – this is the average of just the cities on the graph. It is too complicated to do national average (includes agriculture, and is about 24 tons)

Inventory QA 25 23 21 18 14 13 12 12 12 10 7

Quantify action items (~38 out of 360) Analytical Approach Quantify action items (~38 out of 360) Initial cost (inc labor) Service life O&M cost Effectiveness Total stock estimate Capital cost Annual cost effectiveness Total potential effectiveness Used public data sources and Pittsburgh-specific estimations All data sources and estimates are documented and calculations are transparent Options reported in annualized cost/annual ton reduced to normalize project lifetimes

Mitigation Alternatives: 38 Quantified Action Items for Modeling $37,000 Log Total Effectiveness (CO2e mitigated) Relative Initial Cost (log scale) Various dimensions Hybrid electric bus Weatherstripping doors $0.15 Bath Faucet - Total (fixture) Kitchen Faucet - Total (fixture) Showerhead - Total (fixture) LED Exit Signs (Exit Sign) Commercial CFL lighting (CFL) Resid - Weatherstrip Doors (HH) Vending Misers - Drink (miser) Resid - Caulking (HH) LED Traffic Lights (3 bulbs) Vending Misers - Snack (miser) Resid - Water Heater Insulation (HH) Hybrid City Fleet - trucks (truck) Resid - Hot water pipes Insulation (HH) Comm Water Cooler (Water Cooler) Resid - Weatherstrip Windows (HH) Resid - Attic Floor Insulation (HH) Smaller capacity buses (bus) Renewable - Purchase (REC) (MWh) LED Street Lights (Street Light) Urban Forestry (tree) Monitor (Monitor) Hybrid City Fleet - SUVs (SUV) Renewable - Build Wind (MWh) Green Roofs - Multi Family (HH) Hybrid City Fleet - sedans (sedan) Washer (appliance) Green Roofs - Comm (sq ft floor space) Computer (Computer) Dishwasher (appliance) Dishwasher - Total (fixture) Green Roofs - Single Family (HH) Refridgerator (appliance) Printer (Printer) Renewable - Build Solar Thermal (MWh) Clothes Washer - Total (fixture) Hybrid electric bus (bus) Scanner (Scanner) Toilet - Total (fixture)

Using cost mitigation curves (previous slide)… Identify policy goals Analytical Approach Using cost mitigation curves (previous slide)… Identify policy goals Minimize initial cost Minimize lifetime cost Maximize reductions Scenario analyses and modeling Used public data sources and Pittsburgh-specific estimations All data sources and estimates are documented and calculations are transparent Options reported in annualized cost/annual ton reduced to normalize project lifetimes

CAP Modeling Results CAP Scenario Analysis – Maximize Emission Reductions Given Initial Budget Constraint 20-year planning horizon; 4% discount rate; costs do not inc. labor or admin.

CAP Modeling Results CAP Scenario Analysis – Minimize Lifetime Costs Given Target GHG Reduction 20-year planning horizon; 4% discount rate; costs do not inc. labor or admin.

CAP Modeling Results 20-year planning horizon; 4% discount rate; costs do not inc. labor or admin.

CAP Modeling Results Annual GHG Reduction (% Relative to 2003 Inventory) Annual GHG Reduction (% Relative to 2003 Inventory) 20-year planning horizon; 4% discount rate; costs do not inc. labor or admin.

Summary Expect regional inventory variation Carbon mitigation cost planning requires Initial cost (inc labor) Service life O&M cost Effectiveness Total stock estimate Program design & goals significantly affect outcomes Significant reductions are… Expensive Demonstrate significant returns Consider rollback financing for long-term planning

QUESTIONS?