CHANGES OF SOLID FUEL CONSUMPTION IN LITHUANIA by Gintaras Adžgauskas Lithuanian Member Committee of World Energy Council 3rd Thematic Workshop The Future of Total Primary Energy Supply in the Central-East European Countries Katowice, November15, 2004 Source: Lithuanian energy institute

Content Trends of solid fuel consumption Changes of coal consumers structure Changes of wood and fuel consumers structure Future changes Ignalina NPP closure

Consumption of solid fuel in Lithuania

Consumption of primary energy in Lithuania

Forecast of primary energy demand in Lithuania, TWh 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Domestic resources 0,42 0,58 0,66 0,81 1,00 1,16 1,32 Coal 0,64 0,24 0,09 0,11 0,10 Natural gas 4,68 2,03 2,07 2,66 4,54 4,76 4,96 Oil products 7,01 2,95 2,23 2,52 2,72 2,88 3,05 Nuclear energy 4,45 3,09 2,19 1,95 0,0 Total 17,19 8,89 7,24 8,05 8,37 9,42

Primary energy demand in Lithuania -10000 -5000 5000 10000 15000 20000 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 Nuclear Wind Coal Others Woods Peat LNG Petrol Diesel fuel Heavy oil and oil shale oil Oil Natural gas Orimulsion Electricity Hydro Ktoe

Trends of coal and local solid fuel consumption

Structure of coal consumption in 1990

Structure of coal consumption in 2000

Structure of coal consumption in 2003

Structure of wood and peat consumption in 1990

Structure of wood and peat consumption in 2000

Structure of wood and peat consumption in 2003

With the closure of the Ignalina NPP by the end of 2009, primary energy demand in the basic scenario would increase only by approximately 30% during the period until 2020. However, total demand for fossil fuel would increase almost 1.9 times within 20 years, i.e. from 5 million tons of oil equivalent in 2000 to 9.4 million tons of oil equivalent in 2020. The increase in natural gas consumption would be particularly rapid – from 2.1 million tons of oil equivalent in 2000 to 5 million tons of oil equivalent in 2020. During the forecasting period the share of natural gas in the primary energy balance would increase from 28.5% to 53%. The forecasts predict that at the end of the period the share of indigenous (excluding indigenous crude oil) and renewable resources in the total primary energy balance would increase by up to 14%, while the share of petroleum products would constitute about 32%. After the closure of the Ignalina NPP, the existing capacities will be sufficient to meet the national demand for a period beyond the year 2010 in all cases of the domestic demand growth in Lithuania, if the Lithuanian Power Plant is maintained and modernized .

Heavy oil, which is produced at the Mažeikiai refinery factory, has sulphur content up to six percent. Orimulsion, imported from Venezuela, has a high content of sulphur and heavy metals as well. Nowadays, natural gas is only a more or less acceptable fuel for thermal power plants, but unfortunately it can only be supplied from Russia via single pipe, and price level and security of supply remain uncertain.

Kaunas University of Technology is responsible for preparation of study on the continuity of the use of nuclear energy in Lithuania. The study has to answer ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ for the future of nuclear energy in Lithuania. Study covers technical, economic and a political evaluation of different possible scenarios for electric energy production at the nuclear power plants, including: Ignalina NPP unit 2 operation prolongation possibilities; replacement of the RBMK reactors by BWR or PWR reactors (with remained turbines and infrastructure); Construction of a new NPP unit, while maintaining the previous infrastructure; and Construction of a new NPP unit ‘from zero’ (after 15 to 20 years).

Thank you very much for your attention