EU Perspective for 2030 Paweł Świeboda Deputy Head of European Political Strategy Centre European Commission @pswieboda 7th Strategy Forum of the EU Strategy for the Baltic Sea Region 09 November 2016

2030: complexity and volatility will only grow From a world of problems to a world of dilemmas Annick could you please reproduce the visual here? 09 November 2016

Unprecedented opportunities Scientific breakthroughs cell therapy gene editing New economic and business models circular connected collaborative Technological breakthroughs self-driving robots Annick could you please reproduce the visual here? 09 November 2016

Five dreams for 2030 Extending Europe's unparallel prosperity against the winds of demographic change Making the technological disruption work for us, not against us Maximising our security and resiliance Regaining sense of societal cohesion and inclusion Delivering on the promise of sustainability

2030 Agenda: people, prosperity, governance and the planet

Scanning the Horizon People Annick – could you make the sections look better?

Wealthier and Healthier 09 November 2016

Europeans: a declining share of the world population % of world population Europeans: a declining share of the world population Note: 1990 figure includes West/East Europe. 1960 and 1980 include EU28, Iceland, Norway and Switzerland. 2016 and 2050 include EU28 . Source: Eurostat, OECD, World Bank 09 November 2016

Low fertility and high emigration Declining populations, all fertility rates below the population reproduction level of 2.1 (in the cases of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Germany, this rate is even below EU28 average). Source: Eurostat, 2011, 2015 09 November 2016

Government spending on early childhood education (below 6 years of age) In percent of GDP, 2012 Source: OECD Social Expenditure Database 09 November 2016

Scanning the Horizon Prosperity Annick – could you make the sections look better?

Upward convergence but at a slower pace Graph 1:Pre crisis, CEE was growing fast, catching up with Western Europe Graph 2: Post crisis, growth has been weaker but convergence has continued Graph 3: There is no longer a clear divide in income levels between East and West Source: IMF, 2015 09 November 2016

Risk of Automation of Jobs Percentage of people at risk Annick: could you please circle / highlight the Baltic Sea region countries that appear here? Denmark Germany Poland Lithuania Latvia Estonia Finland Sweden Note: Medium risk of automation affects 5% to 70% of tasks. High risk of automation affects over 70% of tasks. Source: Arntz,M., T. Gregory and U. Zierahn, The Risk of Automation for Jobs in OECD Countries: A Comparative Analysis, 2016, OECD. 09 November 2016

More human: more resilient Trends in Routine and Non-Routine Tasks in Occupations, United States Annick – could you please select 2/3 icons representing the way big data 'helps us think' / 'make better decisions' Personally i like: variety, complexity, plurality of sources variability Source: OECD Skills Outlook 2013, OECD 09 November 2016

Scanning the Horizon Governance

Resilience through solidarity €5.35 billion 195 Annick – could you make this fit the slide better? *As of November 2015 – two year project cycle Source : DG Comm – Energy Union 2 years on 09 November 2016

Scanning the Horizon Planet

Sustainability as a driver of growth Maritime economic activities with most future potential aggregated over sea basin Environmental concerns have always been a strong driver for regional dialogue For example, HELCOM, the Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission, established in the 1980s The Contracting Parties are Denmark, Estonia, the European Union, Finland, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Russia and Sweden. Environmental problems affecting the Baltic Sea all require close cooperation to be tackled: a) Eutrophication (increased input of nutrients causing accelerated growth of planktonic algae and higher plant forms, thus increasing total primary production of organic matter) Baltic Sea drainage area is highly populated, and human activities such as agriculture, municipal sewage, industries and atmospheric deposition b) Hazardous substances c) Overfishing d) Marine litter Source: European Commission Staff Working Document: A Sustainable Blue Growth Agenda for the Baltic Sea Region, SWD (2014) 167 HELCOM, the Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission, established in the 1980s 09 November 2016

EU Agenda 2030: Shaping the future

European Political Strategy Centre Paweł Świeboda European Political Strategy Centre @pswieboda