Air Pollution and Public Health in India INDIA@COP22 Air Pollution and Public Health in India Council on Energy, Environment and Water In collaboration with IIM Ahmedabad and IIASA Sustainable Lifestyle = Positive Climate Action www.indiaatcop22.org

INDIA@COP22 Context Environment and health linkages – Hippocrates (c.460 – c.377 B.C.) Indian cities today Among most polluted in the world >600000 deaths can be attributed to outdoor pollution (GBD, 2013) Few studies assess current & future health impacts – key for pollution control policies www.indiaatcop22.org

Outdoor Air Pollution and Disease Burden INDIA@COP22 Outdoor Air Pollution and Disease Burden What are the short term mortality effects of outdoor air pollution in selected Indian cities? What is the efficacy of alternate policy scenarios on air pollution control and likely long term health impacts? www.indiaatcop22.org

Representative cities INDIA@COP22 Methodological Approach Climate zone Representative cities Topography Hot and dry Ahmedabad Plains Cold Shimla Hilly regions Temperate Bangalore Plateau Composite Hyderabad, Lucknow Warm and humid Mumbai Coastal areas Selected cities in India [population, location, climate] Daily deaths, pollution, humidity, temperature data Exposure – response functions for pollution & mortality Disease burden due to outdoor air pollution Alternate Policy scenarios – future estimates Log[Deaths] = βPM10 + s(Temp) + s(RH) + s(Time) + DOW www.indiaatcop22.org

Percentage mortality change for every 10 µg/m3 PM10 increase INDIA@COP22 Percentage mortality change for every 10 µg/m3 PM10 increase Ahmedabad 0.16 % [-0.3 – 0.6] Bangalore 0.22 % [-0.04 –0.5] Hyderabad 0.85 % [0.06 –1.6] Mumbai 0.2 % [0.1 – 0.3] Shimla 1.36 % [-0.4 – 3.1] Delhi Rajarathnam et al. (2011) Chennai Balakrishnan et al. (2011) NMMAPS Dominici et al. (2007) 0.15 % [0.01 – 0.3] 0.44 % [0.15 – 0.6] 0.3 % [0.2 – 0.4] -1 1 2 % Change in mortality www.indiaatcop22.org

Sensitivity Analysis INDIA@COP22 www.indiaatcop22.org Alternate models Core model No Lag for PM Minimum temperature SO2 included Ahmedabad 0.16% 0.06% 0.12% -0.32% (95% CI) (-0.31 to 0.62) (-0.42 to 0.55) (-0.36 to 0.61) (-1.01 to 0.38) Bangalore 0.22% 0.17% 0.23% (-0.04 to 0.49) (-0.11 to 0.43) (-0.09 to 0.43) (-0.18 to 0.64) Hyderabad 0.85% 0.48% 0.83% 0.41% (0.06 to 1.63) (-0.30 to 1.27) (0.04 to 1.62) (-0.69 to 1.51) Mumbai 0.20% 0.18% 0.13% (0.10 to 0.30) (0.08 to 0.27) (0.06 to 0.25) (0.04 to 0.23) Shimla* 1.36% 0.97% 0.54% - (-0.38 to 3.1) (-0.83 to 2.7) (-1.17 to 2.27) *No humidity and SO2 values were available for Shimla; Negative values imply that the effect of pollution on mortality is not significant www.indiaatcop22.org

Future pollution and health impacts for Delhi INDIA@COP22 Future pollution and health impacts for Delhi Emissions and future concentrations of fine particulate matter were estimated using the GAINS model We adopted the IEA/WEO (2011) energy scenario for India GDP growth at 6.4% from 2008 to 2035 Population (1.1 to 1.5 billion in 2035) Coal contributes 53% of primary energy in India in 2011 All-cause mortality using the population attributable fraction (PAF) approach Risk rate of 1.06 used with sensitivity analyses for alternate rates (low = 1.02 & high =1.11) from Pope et al. (2002) Relation between dosage and health response assumed to be linear at high concentrations Theoretical minimum exposure of PM2.5 -10 µg/m3 www.indiaatcop22.org

Schematic of modelling framework in GAINS INDIA@COP22 Schematic of modelling framework in GAINS www.indiaatcop22.org

GAINS India: 23 Regions INDIA@COP22 www.indiaatcop22.org Delhi 16 m

City specific policies Advanced Control technologies* INDIA@COP22 Policy Scenarios Sector City specific policies Advanced Control technologies* 450 Scenario Reference Transport Stage II control measures in buses and trucks Stage III controls in buses and trucks Higher reliance on clean fuels bringing down PM2.5 emissions by 20% in 2050 MoPNG (2003) Stage II control measures in two and three wheelers Introduction of Euro IV standards in Indian megacities from 2010 Introduction of Euro V and Euro VI standards from 2015 Shifting of public transport buses from diesel to CNG in Delhi Same as city specific policies Bell et al. (2004) Power plants Shift of all power plants from coal to natural gas High reliance on gas based power plants and renewables bringing down PM2.5 emissions by 60% in 2030 CPCB (2010); SoE-Delhi (2010) Use of High efficiency ESP technology in large coal based power plants (where applicable) Use of High efficiency de-dusters in coal based power plants where applicable Industry Closing down/ moving highly polluting industries outside city limits No significant change in industrial PM2.5 emissions CPCB (2010) Waste Ban on open residential burning of garbage and plastics No significant change in waste sector PM2.5 emissions MoEF (2010) www.indiaatcop22.org

Estimated PM2.5 concentrations for Delhi under different scenarios INDIA@COP22 Estimated PM2.5 concentrations for Delhi under different scenarios NAAQS WHO 2010 Baseline Δ 27% Δ 13% Δ 63% Δ 61% Δ 25% Δ 18% www.indiaatcop22.org

PM2.5 emissions by aggregated sector INDIA@COP22 PM2.5 emissions by aggregated sector www.indiaatcop22.org

Estimated all-cause mortality due to air pollution for Delhi in 2030 INDIA@COP22 Estimated all-cause mortality due to air pollution for Delhi in 2030 www.indiaatcop22.org

Temperature – PM10 Interactions INDIA@COP22 Temperature – PM10 Interactions Log[deaths] = β1PM10 + β2Temp + β3(PM10:Temp) + s(RH) + s(Time) + DOW City β3 co-efficient Std. error p – value Significance* Ahmedabad 0.00328 0.00202 0.11 ns Bangalore 0.00607 0.00473 0.20 Hyderabad 0.00759 0.00757 0.31 Mumbai -0.00380 0.00281 0.16 Shimla -0.00007 0.00054 0.89 *ns: Not significant www.indiaatcop22.org

Conclusions INDIA@COP22 Air pollution impacts are heterogeneous across cities Focus on clean as well polluted cities Air pollution monitoring and vital registration needs to be strengthened Current policies will not be enough to bring pollution levels to ambient air quality standards Advanced controls + clean fuels www.indiaatcop22.org

INDIA@COP22 Thank You www.indiaatcop22.org