5th Shire River Basin Conference 22 February 2017 Shire River Basin Management Project Shire Basin Planning Tool Sub-Component A1 Development of a Basin Planning Framework

Presentation Outline Objectives of the Shire Basin Planning Tool Conceptual overview Description of the Water Resources Model Indicator results and Multi Criteria Analysis Walk-through of the Shire Basin Planning Tool Summary and conclusions SRBMP COMPONENT A1

Introduction to the Shire Basin Planning Tool What will Shire Basin Water Resources look like in 2035?? As planners, require analytical tools to quantify impacts of different developments and influences on the Basin Shire Basin Planning Tool is example of one such analytical tool Increases in Water Demand Lake Malawi Hydrology Shire Hydrology Competing Water Use Participatory decision making SRBMP COMPONENT A1

Shire Basin Planning Tool Objectives Analyse water resources development Planning Options Planning option is a combination of water resources investments (development) combined with external scenario influences (e.g. climate change, population growth) Needs to be based on underlying water balance modelling of the Basin Easy to use and compare different planning options against one another Download from the online knowledge portal and use on your computer (when finalised) Equivalent example of driving a car. Don’t need knowledge of combustion engine to get where you going! SRBMP COMPONENT A1

Always remember Models are a mathematical representation of reality Need good quality data! Configuration requires expertise and experience Equivalent example of driving a car. Don’t need knowledge of combustion engine to get where you going! SRBMP COMPONENT A1

Shire Basin Planning Tool - Concept Complex Water Balance Model User Friendly Interface SRBMP COMPONENT A1

Shire Basin Planning Tool - Components Investments External Scenarios Irrigation Water Supply ‘Other’ Hydropower Dams EWR Climate change Population growth Upstream development Generic Shire MIKE Hydro Basin Model Inputs Flows Lake Levels Runoff Groundwater etc. Outputs Hydrology Water demands Env. flows Hydropower Operational rules Supply Reliability EWR Supply Energy Prod. Lake Levels Groundwater Etc. Indicators MCA Weighting of indicators / groups Evaluated Basin Scores Strategies SRBMP COMPONENT A1

Shire Basin Planning Tool - Process Investments External Scenarios Irrigation 1 Irrigation 2 Irrigation 3 Water Supply 1 Water Supply 2 Water Supply 3 Hydropower 1 Hydropower 2 Hydropower 3 Etc… Irrigation 1 Irrigation 2 Irrigation 3 Water Supply 1 Water Supply 2 Water Supply 3 Hydropower 1 Hydropower 2 Hydropower 3 Etc… EWR Option Climate Change Upstream Development Population Growth MIKE Hydro Basin Model Inputs Outputs Indicators Strategies Supply Reliability EWR Lake Levels Economics Energy Production etc MCA Weighting of indicators Basin Scores SRBMP COMPONENT A1

MIKE Hydro Basin Model Model includes: Water Users Hydropower Lake Malawi and Operation Strategy Hydrology (49 years simulated record) Climate change affected hydrology Population growth (increase in water demands) Environmental flows SRBMP COMPONENT A1

Hydrology Input Hydrology is most critical input Model configured at WRU scale Monthly simulated hydrology, 1960 – 2009. Lumped conceptual model. Does not include very low flows during first part of century!! Rainfall and evaporation from Atkins 2011 study Same hydrology used as basis for licensing project Validation checks at major sites on main Shire SRBMP COMPONENT A1

External Scenario Influences External Scenario Influences can be defined for different Planning Options: Climate Change pathways - how will climate change affect the hydrology of the basin i.e. available water? Population Growth Rates - how much water will be needed in future? Environmental Flow Requirements - How much water should be reserved for the environment in the tributaries? Level of Upstream Development - How much consumptive water development will take place above Lake Malawi, i.e. reduce inflows to the lake? SRBMP COMPONENT A1

Result Indicators Indicator Name Tool calculates indicator results based on model input and output Indicator Name Reliability and amount of water supplied (Irrigation, Water supply, Other) Annual energy production from Hydropower Effectiveness of supplying environmental flow requirements (Wet, Dry, Annual) Sustainability of Groundwater Use Average annual Lake Malawi water level Average annual flow into Elephant Marshes Annual net financial benefits (for different investment types) SRBMP COMPONENT A1

Evaluating Different Planning Options Interpreting Results Duration curves of key outputs, extract values for determination of indicators SRBMP COMPONENT A1

Planning Option Analysis SRBMP COMPONENT A1

Planning Options and Investments SRBMP COMPONENT A1

New Investments SRBMP COMPONENT A1

Planning Options and Investments SRBMP COMPONENT A1

Run the Model SRBMP COMPONENT A1

Summary Indicator Results SRBMP COMPONENT A1

WRU Indicator Results SRBMP COMPONENT A1

Strategy Weightings and Basin Score (1) How can we assign importance to indicators? A Basin Score is calculated from results based on Multi Criteria Analysis (MCA) The importance of different themes can be emphasized by specifying a ‘Weight’ for groups of indicators Water Resources Development Environmental Sustainability Economic Returns Other Indicators 25 100 40 15 25 30 100 15 50 20 100 SRBMP COMPONENT A1

Strategy Weightings and Basin Score (2) The importance of different Indicator scores within a group can also be emphasized can be emphasized by specifying a ‘Weight’ for groups of indicators For example, Water Resources Development 'Irrigation' Water Use Development 'Domestic Water Supply' Development 'Other' Water Use Development 30 50 20 100 60 30 10 100 ? 100 SRBMP COMPONENT A1

Strategy Weightings and Basin Score (3) SRBMP COMPONENT A1

Basin Score SRBMP COMPONENT A1

Summary and conclusions Planning options combine investments and external scenario influences Technical model simulations, but simplified user interface that does not require extensive training Key indicators are calculated which include risk based outputs Relative importance of indicators and themes can be adjusted to help interpret planning option results MCA weighting of indicators to compare planning options Tool installer accessible from Knowledge Portal Thank you SRBMP COMPONENT A1