Deutsche Presentation

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Presentation transcript:

Deutsche Presentation Retail Market Dynamics February 2015

Consumer Position High Income vs. Low & Middle Income markets Relative outperformance but not immune to slowing economy Credit position is the major differentiator Risks: Aspirational shopper has limited resources Stock market performance Possible higher personal taxes

Annual Trading Densities Y / Y % Growth Affluent BROOKLYN MALL 8.8% LA LUCIA MALL 5.6% WALMER PARK 9.0% CONSTANTIA VILLAGE 6.4% Solid-Middle WATERFALL MALL -1.0% KOLONNADE 5.9% WOODMEAD RETAIL PARK 4.3% RIVER SQUARE 3.8% Lower-Middle NORTHGATE -0.7% LONGBEACH MALL 8.2% CBD / Commuter LAKESIDE MALL 3.0% ALBERTON CITY -0.4% GOLDEN ACRE 10.3% CITY VIEW 2.1% CITY MALL -8.7% HATFIELD PLAZA 2.8%

Annual Trading Densities Y / Y % Growth Affluent BROOKLYN MALL 8.8% LA LUCIA MALL 5.6% WALMER PARK 9.0% CONSTANTIA VILLAGE 6.4% Solid-Middle WATERFALL MALL -1.0% KOLONNADE 5.9% WOODMEAD RETAIL PARK 4.3% RIVER SQUARE 3.8% Lower-Middle NORTHGATE -0.7% LONGBEACH MALL 8.2% CBD / Commuter LAKESIDE MALL 3.0% ALBERTON CITY -0.4% GOLDEN ACRE 10.3% CITY VIEW 2.1% CITY MALL -8.7% HATFIELD PLAZA 2.8%

Annual Trading Densities Y / Y % Growth Affluent BROOKLYN MALL 8.8% LA LUCIA MALL 5.6% WALMER PARK 9.0% CONSTANTIA VILLAGE 6.4% Solid-Middle WATERFALL MALL -1.0% KOLONNADE 5.9% WOODMEAD RETAIL PARK 4.3% RIVER SQUARE 3.8% Lower-Middle NORTHGATE -0.7% LONGBEACH MALL 8.2% CBD / Commuter LAKESIDE MALL 3.0% ALBERTON CITY -0.4% GOLDEN ACRE 10.3% CITY VIEW 2.1% CITY MALL -8.7% HATFIELD PLAZA 2.8%

Annual Trading Densities Y / Y % Growth Affluent BROOKLYN MALL 8.8% LA LUCIA MALL 5.6% WALMER PARK 9.0% CONSTANTIA VILLAGE 6.4% Solid-Middle WATERFALL MALL -1.0% KOLONNADE 5.9% WOODMEAD RETAIL PARK 4.3% RIVER SQUARE 3.8% Lower-Middle NORTHGATE -0.7% LONGBEACH MALL 8.2% CBD / Commuter LAKESIDE MALL 3.0% ALBERTON CITY -0.4% GOLDEN ACRE 10.3% CITY VIEW 2.1% CITY MALL -8.7% HATFIELD PLAZA 2.8%

Annual Trading Densities Y / Y % Growth Affluent BROOKLYN MALL 8.8% LA LUCIA MALL 5.6% WALMER PARK 9.0% CONSTANTIA VILLAGE 6.4% Solid-Middle WATERFALL MALL -1.0% KOLONNADE 5.9% WOODMEAD RETAIL PARK 4.3% RIVER SQUARE 3.8% Lower-Middle NORTHGATE -0.7% LONGBEACH MALL 8.2% CBD / Commuter LAKESIDE MALL 3.0% ALBERTON CITY -0.4% GOLDEN ACRE 10.3% CITY VIEW 2.1% CITY MALL -8.7% HATFIELD PLAZA 2.8%

Annual Trading Densities Y / Y % Growth Affluent BROOKLYN MALL 8.8% LA LUCIA MALL 5.6% WALMER PARK 9.0% CONSTANTIA VILLAGE 6.4% Solid-Middle WATERFALL MALL -1.0% KOLONNADE 5.9% WOODMEAD RETAIL PARK 4.3% RIVER SQUARE 3.8% Lower-Middle NORTHGATE -0.7% LONGBEACH MALL 8.2% CBD / Commuter LAKESIDE MALL 3.0% ALBERTON CITY -0.4% GOLDEN ACRE 10.3% CITY VIEW 2.1% CITY MALL -8.7% HATFIELD PLAZA 2.8%

Annual Trading Densities Y / Y % Growth Affluent BROOKLYN MALL 8.8% LA LUCIA MALL 5.6% WALMER PARK 9.0% CONSTANTIA VILLAGE 6.4% Solid-Middle WATERFALL MALL -1.0% KOLONNADE 5.9% WOODMEAD RETAIL PARK 4.3% RIVER SQUARE 3.8% Lower-Middle NORTHGATE -0.7% LONGBEACH MALL 8.2% CBD / Commuter LAKESIDE MALL 3.0% ALBERTON CITY -0.4% GOLDEN ACRE 10.3% CITY VIEW 2.1% CITY MALL -8.7% HATFIELD PLAZA 2.8%

December Trading Densities Dec-13 vs Dec-14 (% Growth) Affluent BROOKLYN MALL 9.9% LA LUCIA MALL 5.2% WALMER PARK 12.6% CONSTANTIA VILLAGE 8.2% Solid-Middle WATERFALL MALL 1.1% KOLONNADE 5.9% WOODMEAD RETAIL PARK 5.5% RIVER SQUARE -0.8% Lower-Middle NORTHGATE 3.6% LONGBEACH MALL 11.2% CBD / Commuter LAKESIDE MALL 3.0% ALBERTON CITY -0.4% GOLDEN ACRE 10.3% CITY VIEW 0.1% CITY MALL -19.0% HATFIELD PLAZA 9.2%

December Trading Densities Dec-13 vs Dec-14 (% Growth) Affluent BROOKLYN MALL 9.9% LA LUCIA MALL 5.2% WALMER PARK 12.6% CONSTANTIA VILLAGE 8.2% Solid-Middle WATERFALL MALL 1.1% KOLONNADE 5.9% WOODMEAD RETAIL PARK 5.5% RIVER SQUARE -0.8% Lower-Middle NORTHGATE 3.6% LONGBEACH MALL 11.2% CBD / Commuter LAKESIDE MALL 3.0% ALBERTON CITY -0.4% GOLDEN ACRE 10.3% CITY VIEW 0.1% CITY MALL -19.0% HATFIELD PLAZA 9.2%

Rental Affordability TOP 10 CENTRES VALUE (R mil) GLA VALUE / M2 COST OF OCCUPANCY AVE. TRADING DENSITY (12 Months) BROOKLYN MALL (75%) 1,953 56,069 34,839 8.8% 2,819 WATERFALL MALL 1,287 49,228 26,142 7.4% 2,649 LAKESIDE MALL 1,234 67,515 18,270 7.2% 2,056 LA LUCIA MALL 1,066 36,379 29,295 2,921 KOLONNADE (50%) 958 37,893 25,292 6.3% 2,828 WALMER PARK 901 43,202 20,858 6.5% 2,530 ALBERTON CITY 877 47,615 18,414 7.3% 2,135 CONSTANTIA VILLAGE 813 20,370 39,926 4.8% 6,007 NORTHGATE (50%) 756 45,329 16,669 10.4% 1,664 WOODMEAD RETAIL PARK 732 54,891 13,328 4.9% 2,876

Rental Affordability TOP 10 CENTRES VALUE (R mil) GLA VALUE / M2 COST OF OCCUPANCY AVE. TRADING DENSITY (12 Months) BROOKLYN MALL (75%) 1,953 56,069 34,839 8.8% 2,819 WATERFALL MALL 1,287 49,228 26,142 7.4% 2,649 LAKESIDE MALL 1,234 67,515 18,270 7.2% 2,056 LA LUCIA MALL 1,066 36,379 29,295 2,921 KOLONNADE (50%) 958 37,893 25,292 6.3% 2,828 WALMER PARK 901 43,202 20,858 6.5% 2,530 ALBERTON CITY 877 47,615 18,414 7.3% 2,135 CONSTANTIA VILLAGE 813 20,370 39,926 4.8% 6,007 NORTHGATE (50%) 756 45,329 16,669 10.4% 1,664 WOODMEAD RETAIL PARK 732 54,891 13,328 4.9% 2,876

Rental Affordability TOP 10 CENTRES VALUE (R mil) GLA VALUE / M2 COST OF OCCUPANCY AVE. TRADING DENSITY (12 Months) BROOKLYN MALL (75%) 1,953 56,069 34,839 8.8% 2,819 WATERFALL MALL 1,287 49,228 26,142 7.4% 2,649 LAKESIDE MALL 1,234 67,515 18,270 7.2% 2,056 LA LUCIA MALL 1,066 36,379 29,295 2,921 KOLONNADE (50%) 958 37,893 25,292 6.3% 2,828 WALMER PARK 901 43,202 20,858 6.5% 2,530 ALBERTON CITY 877 47,615 18,414 7.3% 2,135 CONSTANTIA VILLAGE 813 20,370 39,926 4.8% 6,007 NORTHGATE (50%) 756 45,329 16,669 10.4% 1,664 WOODMEAD RETAIL PARK 732 54,891 13,328 4.9% 2,876

Listed Retailers Listed Retailers GLA Ave. Trading Density (12 Months) Y/Y Growth CHECKERS 23,229 2,902 PICK 'N PAY 73,420 2,721 CLICKS 13,781 3,259 GAME 35,886 1,941 MR PRICE HOME 10,809 2,105 MR PRICE APPAREL 13,717 2,782 FOSCHINI 9,128 1,937 TRUWORTHS 14,293 2,505 WOOLWORTHS 59,066 3,019

Retail Space: Supply & Demand Dynamics 2003 - 2008: Strong GDP growth of ≥ 3% : 2002 – 2008 Relative high employment growth : 2004 -2008 Social Grant roll-out : 2004 – 2009 Consumer Credit Growth: Debt/Income Ratio 55% in ’03 to 83% in ’08 2010 – 2012: Recovery driven by unsecured lending

National Shopping Centre GLA Growth Shopping centres ≥ 30 000m² expansion rate: 1993 – 2012 : 7.8% p.a. 2006 – 2009: 12.4% p.a. 2009 – 2012: 9% p.a. 2012 onwards: +/- 6% Supply exceeding demand, leading to declining trading densities, higher occupancy costs and margin compression. Landlords experience higher vacancies, lower turnover rental, limited rental growth USA Example USA Mall Health Index (Vacancy ≤ 10%): Deteriorated 94% (2006) to 80% (2014) USA Malls with 10% - 40% vacancy: 5% (2006) to 15% (2014) Shopping centres with combined GLA of 3mil m² are 40%+ vacant

Listed Retailer: Trading area growth - Relative performance MR PRICE: Consolidation: (Mr Price Home & Sport) Increasing GLA at performing stores WOOLWORTHS: Enlarging high trading density stores Rental model supporting GLA growth FOSCHINI: New stores underperforming existing Trading density growth decelerating TRUWORTHS: Aggressive growth 2012 - 2014 Negative trading density growth

New Centre Performance Matlosana Mall Flamwood Mall Waterfall Corner Club Centre Cosmo Centre Forest Hill Mall of Rosebank Redevelopment Newtown

Impact of new competition Klerksdorp – City Mall impacted by Flamwood & Matlosana Greater Matlosana – 400k population; growth 2001 to 2011 : 1.04% (RSA 1.44%) Northwest GDP/Capita 69% of Gauteng Combined GLA of Flamwood, Tower Mall (Jouberton 2013) and Matlosana – 100 000m² City Mall Trading Density y-o-y change: 2013 vs 2012 – down 4% 2014 vs 2013 – down 8.2% to R1922/m² Dec 2014 vs Dec 2013 – down 19% to R2 776/m² (R14mil loss in sales) ≥ 40% decline: Woolworths, C.N.A., Musica, Red Square, Sterns, Verimark and most cellular shops 20% - 40% decline: All Foschini brands, Legit, The Hub, Wimpy, Sheet Street Positive y-o-y growth: Ackermans, PEP, Webbers, PEP Cel, Signature Cosmetics, Side Step, Spitz, Skipper Bar

Impact of new competition Brooklyn Mall impacted by 1500m² Woolworths stand-alone at Club Centre Woolworths food trading density declined by average 5.1% p.m. y-o-y, reducing overall Woolworths growth to 2.7% in 2014. December up 6.8% Woodmead impacted by Woolworths Food store at Waterfall Corner 2012/2013 Y-o-Y trading density growth – 15.7% 2014/2013 Y-o-Y trading density growth – 6.7% December 2014 Y-o-Y growth – 9.6% 2014 Average trading density: R5000/m²

Eskom Load Shedding Shopper behaviour: At home & at shopping centres Availability of back-up power: Anchors, Nationals & Line shops Impact on centre operations: Security, parking, equipment Impact on foot counts & trading There is not a visible “loss” of visitors to the mall due to load shedding activities. The rate of new arrivals drop on average with 50% during load shedding hours, but quickly resumes after power is restored. The week day arrival pattern shifts to later during the day, but resumes the normal arrival patterns until close of business. Average dwell times for the specific days in question shows a 200% increase across new visitors and recurring customers

Traditional Saturday Pattern 22/11/14 12 months general pattern for normal Saturdays Power Outages on Saturdays Saturday traffic growth peaks at 11h00 and 19h00 clock With load-shedding the traffic drops in average with 50 % but resumes in growth after load-shedding stopped. There is no substantial decrease in overall volumes. However, average time in mall spend however doubles.

12 months normal arrival pattern for Sunday Arrival pattern on a Sunday with Load Shedding Normal Sunday traffic growth peaks at 11h00

Eskom Load Shedding Growthpoint position Diesel generators Solar Inverters & UPS Energy saving initiatives Change in trading hours

International Retailers Rationale for market entry : International foot print, RSA retailer margins. Luxury International Brands Brand recognition & Trading Performance Market size Presence & interest: LV, Gucci, Dior, Burberry, D&G, Prada, Fendi Franchised International Brands Edcon – Topshop, River Island, Tom Taylor, TM Lewin, Lucky Brand, Lipsy, Calvin Klein, Accessorize Busby – Topshop, Guess, Mango, Tumi, Karen Millen Surtee – Hugo Boss, Dunn Hill, Hacket, Armani Other – GAP, Banana Republic, Pringle, Ben Sherman, Tiger of Sweden, Hamleys H&M

Cotton On Group Market Entry Strategy Pricing Performance in terms of market penetration, market share and trading density Cotton On Factorie Typo CO Kids Impact on RSA retailers Risks

Inditex / ZARA Market entry strategy Brand Awareness Store Performance Sandton, V&A, KZN, PE, Cresta, Tyger Valley Store roll-out programme Impact on RSA retailers Challenges Currency pressure, product sizing, market knowledge, shrinkage Zara Home

Questions