What Big Change Looks Like: High School Graduates in the West through 2032 AT THE COLLEGE DOOR Thursday, February 9, 2017 www.wiche.edu/knocking #Knocking2016

Agenda High School Graduate Trends So what? Now what? Q & A Peace Bransberger, Senior Research Analyst, WICHE So what? Now what? Rachelle Sharpe, Acting Executive Director, Washington Student Achievement Council Q & A

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U.S. High School Graduates The overall number will plateau for most of the next decade The racial/ethnic mix of high school graduates will continue to shift significantly toward a more diverse population Private high school graduates continue to decline in number and share

U.S. High School Graduates 3.56 Public & Nonpublic Graduates Million NCES data through SY2012-13, WICHE Knocking at the College Door 2016 for SY2013-14 to 2031-32.

U.S. High School Graduates Projections 3.44M 3.56M ('25) 3.30M White Hispanic Black Asian/Pacific Islander Private Schools 2013-14 2019-20 2025-26 2031-32

White HSGs in Decline Change from SY2012-13

Hispanics Are the Primary Growth Engine Change from SY2012-13

Steady Increase of Asian/Pac. Is. HSGs Change from SY2012-13

Black HSGs Decline Slightly Change from SY2012-13

Significant Regional Variation

Significant Regional Variation Total Public and Private High School Graduates

The West Tracks the National trend 30% of the Nation’s graduates Cedes position as #1 producer of Hispanic graduates to the South by 2025, but remains #1 producer of Asian/Pac. Isl. grads

West Region High School Graduates Projections 862K ('24) 832K 789K 2013-14 2019-20 2025-26 2031-32

West Region High School Graduates Change from SY2012-13 (thousands) 278 Hispanic 86 Asian/Pac. Isl. 14 Am. Ind./Alaska Native 42 Black 54 Private Schools 356 White

High School Graduates by State West Region 821K / year on average 4% by 2023-24 then 8% by 2031-32 Non-White 3% to 57% of Public Total 2013-14 2019-20 2025-26 2031-32 Alaska 7,900 on average Non-White  5% to 45% of Total Arizona 66,900 on average, 14% by ‘32 Non-White  3% to 55% of Total California 426,400 on average, 14% by ‘32 Non-White  5% to 74% of Total

High School Graduates by State Colorado 58,000 on average Non-White  2% to 38% of Total Hawaii 14,600 on average Non-White  3% to 89% of Total Idaho 21,000 on average Non-White  8% to 26% of Total Montana 10,000 on average Non-White  5% to 18% of Total Nevada 24,700 on average, 12% by ‘32 Non-White  8% to 60% of Total New Mexico 20,200 on average,15% by ‘32 Non-White  6% to 77% of Total

High School Graduates by State North Dakota 8,900 on average Non-White  20% to 32% of Total Oregon 36,500 on average, 7% by ‘32 Non-White  3% to 30% of Total South Dakota 9,200 on average Non-White  14% to 26% of Total Utah 39,600 on average Non-White  3% to 21% of Total Washington 71,800 on average Non-White  10% to 41% of Total Wyoming 6,200 on average Non-White  5% to 19% of Total

Traditional & Nontraditional Age Students 18-24 year olds Full-time Part-time 25-34 y.o. 35+ and other IPEDS, Fall Enrollments by Age & Status, 2014-15

Traditional Age Students by Race/Ethnicity Washington’s Class of 2014, Postsecondary Enrollment U.S. Recent High School Completers, Enrolled in 2- or 4-year College, 2014 52% Bottom 20% Income 64% Middle 60% 81% Top 20% Two-year Four-year 85% 68% 63% 62% Washington Student Achievement Council, 2017-19 Strategic Action Plan, and U.S. Dept. of Education, Digest of Education Statistics

College Students from Where? Fall 2014 1st-year, 1st-time Students % Non-resident Hispanics Least Likely to Go Out of State White Hispanic IPEDS, Fall Enrollment, 2014-15 (from www.wiche.edu/factbook), and NPSAS:12, Citizen & resident alien students, 24 y.o. or younger.

Washington Attainment Goals by 2023 July 2016 Washington Attainment Goals by 2023 Rachelle Sharpe Acting Executive Director Washington Student Achievement Council There are many other ways that we could look at these trends. But I hope that this overview provides some evidence of the “big change” that is underway. Before I turn it over to Rachelle to talk about Washington’s strategic plan – about how to tackle the changing times -- I will pause for any burning questions about the projections. [QUESTIONS]

Statewide attainment goals by 2023 July 2016 Statewide attainment goals by 2023 Ensure our residents can compete for the best jobs in Washington. 100% of adults* will have a high school diploma or equivalent. At least 70% of adults* will have a postsecondary credential. The ten-year Roadmap outlined the goals adopted by the 2014 Legislature. *Adults in Washington aged 25-44.

Further education leads to prosperity Living wage employment. Higher labor force participation. Lower unemployment.

Attainment is unevenly distributed Washington Student Achievement Council Educational Attainment of Washington Residents Aged 25-44     Source: WSAC staff analysis of ACS year 2011-2013 (September 2016) Students from racial and ethnic minority populations represent an increasing share of Washington’s high school population. However, attainment gaps persist for certain populations. Hispanic population is overrepresented among those with less than a high school diploma and underrepresented at all other levels of educational attainment. Black, American Indian, and Pacific Islander populations are also underrepresented among college graduates.

Source: A Skilled and Educated Workforce 2015 Projected workforce needs require substantial increases in all credentials. Washington Student Achievement Council *Mid level: A year or more of college credit including Associates degrees. Source: A Skilled and Educated Workforce 2015

Education is critical to a thriving economy Over 3/4 of job openings in Washington require education beyond high school. The state goals reflect the needs in Washington and are consistent with analysis by national experts. Lumina Foundation and the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce. ..and found that ¾ of job openings in Washington will require education beyond HS.  *Mid level: A year or more of college credit including Associates degrees. Source: A Skilled and Educated Workforce 2015

Growth required to achieve the goals Big strides are needed to reach our goals Washington Student Achievement Council Growth required to achieve the goals To meet the goal and address population growth, 500,000 additional adults would need to complete a credential. 90,000 would be required to keep pace with population growth. 80,000 could result from 2017- 19 Strategic Action Plan investments.

Sustained commitment leads to results Stable funding Affordability Quality institutions Well-funded institutions Provide quality instruction and student support to improve graduation rates. Stable state financial aid Helps low-income students afford college. Predictable tuition Helps families plan for college costs. Enables institutions plan longer term. Sustained commitment from the Legislature leads to positive results.

Advisory Group Proposed Work Plan Establish a Vision statement Reaffirm the state’s workforce needs Develop interim targets Region Sector Workforce Industry Describe leading indicators and performance measures College Readiness Postsecondary Participation College Completion Affordable Pathways Workforce Demands Leverage data systems to evaluate outcomes Private institutions Certificates and apprenticeships Mix of credentials based on employer needs Sector and regional contributions Describe current efforts and strategies

Thank You Peace Bransberger Rachelle Sharpe pbransberger@wiche.edu / 303-541-0257 www.knocking.wiche.edu Rachelle Sharpe rachelles@wsac.wa.gov / 360-753-7872