The “Potential” Southwest Sucker

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Weather Discussion Tuesday, November 29. Recap of 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Advertisements

Weather Discussion Tuesday, December 6. Powerful Santa Ana Winds on December 1 (NAM Model)

Weather Discussion August 23-25, A local hotspot…

Jeopardy Composition of Hurricanes Locating Storms Type of Storms Hurricane Categories Organizations Q $100 Q $200 Q $300 Q $400 Q $500 Q $100 Q $200.

Analysis of Rare Northeast Flow Events By Joshua Beilman and Stephanie Acito.

Weather Discussion Tropical Storm Arlene at Landfall.

What Destroyed Ivar’s Mukilteo Landing Restaurant?

Direct observations and measurements, weather maps, satellites, and radar 6.4.6: Predict weather conditions and patterns based upon weather data collected.

Chapter 10 – Midlatitude Cyclones. The Origin of the Theory of Midlatitude Cyclones The polar front theory (Norwegian cyclone model) – description of.

Things to look for on the weather maps Visible and IR satellite images (& radar too): Look at cloud movements and locations - do they correlate with what.

T.S. Danny National Weather Service Raleigh & Newport/Morehead City North Carolina Threat Assessment Impacts: Aug , 2009 Date/Time Created: 8/27/09.

Guided Notes on Gathering Weather Data

Implications of climate variability & change 1 WMO Expert Meeting on CAT Insurance & Weather Risk Management Markets December 7, 2007 Climate Variability.

Weather in Alaska and Antarctica and How It Can Influence Aviation  Pressure Changes.

Hurricane Ike 0800L 11 Sept 2008 Dan Petersen NOAA Meteorologist.

Track of Hurricane Floyd 1999 September 12 th- Floyd Becomes a Category 4 Hurricane September 14 th- Floyd Impacts the Bahamas September 16 th-

How do weather maps help predict the weather?.  Meteorologists are_____________________________ _____________________________________________________.

Chapter 9: Weather Forecasting Surface weather maps 500mb weather maps Satellite Images Radar Images.

Starter 1.What are hurricanes in the Western Pacific called? 2.What are hurricanes in the Indian Ocean called?

Forecasting Weather Station. Doppler Radar image of Hurricane Andrew.

Read. Answer the following in your notebook:  What type of pressure systems produce hurricanes, tornadoes, and winter weather storms?  What things do.

What factors affect our weather? Heat in our atmosphere Winds Water cycle.

Severe Weather.

Forecasted 700 hPa Low (Blizzard of 2006) The RUC was saying “watch out.” This model is becoming a great short range model for East coast snowstorms (courtesy.

What causes the wind to blow?

Winter Storm Feb 25/26, 2010 Dave Ondrejik National Weather Service State College, PA.

Science 10 Mr. Jean May 7 th, The plan: Video clip of the day Predicting the perfect snow day –Types of storms –Timing –Public Opinion Powerful.

Weather Briefing February 11, 2013 National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac, MI

Class #26: Friday October 30 Thunderstorms 1Class #26: Friday, October 30, 2009.

ERCOT Severe Weather Drill Hurricane May May 2012.

National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office Mobile - Pensacola Special Update Briefing Tropical Storm Karen Special Update Briefing Tropical Storm.

NWS Mobile / Pensacola Special Briefing NEW NUMBER Please call: Conference ID #: We had to increase the number of lines to accommodate.

Crashing the Timeline A Journal of Weather Interpretations and

Mean: 80.5 /61.2 Median: 81 /61 Range: /72-46 Mean: 0.10”

Instructor: Cliff Mass TA: Conor McNicholas

25.3 Weather Instruments Wind vane – most common, located on

National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office Mobile - Pensacola

4:40 pm EST Wednesday November 16th

Penn State Weather Camps

BFB Mid-latitude Cyclones

West Pacific Typhoon/Hurricane VongFong

National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office Mobile / Pensacola

BFB: 9/29/2015 Tropical Weather

Mean: 80.5 /61.2 Median: 81 /61 Range: /72-46 Mean: 0.10”

VERIFICATIONS Rain = yes - CLD: 3.5/10 - THUN PA = ??

Winter Forecasting Tips By Rick Garuckas and Andrew Calvi

National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office Mobile - Pensacola

18 November 2013 Map Discussion

Location – STATE COLLEGE TEMP – PRECIP – SKY COVER

The November 26, 2014 banded snowfall case in southern NY

Weather Forecasting.

Essential Questions Why is accurate weather data important?

Basic Forecasting Tips By Rick Garuckas and Andrew Calvi

The West Coast Thermal Trough

Penn State Weather Camps

Know what to expect! = Climo.

Potential Snow Sunday evening into Monday morning (March 1-2, 2009)

Instructor: Cliff Mass TAs: Conor McNicholas Eduardo Mazza

Hurricane Michael Landfall GOES and NEXRAD Observations 10 October 2018.

De donde son ustedes?.

Location – STATE COLLEGE TEMP – PRECIP – PRECIP – DEW 65

Section 3: Gathering Weather Data

VERIFICATION – DAY CLD: 6.5/10.

Global Weather Patterns

Weather Analysis.

26 November 2018 Map Discussion

Forecast Verification time!

Forecast Verification time!

Forecast Verification time!

Forecast Verification time!

Presentation transcript:

The “Potential” Southwest Sucker By: Ryan Dennis & Casey Oswant ATMO 574 10/24/2016

Outline Use of a Case Study Surface Analysis Satellite Imagery/Radar Upper Air Analysis- 850 mb, 700 mb, 500 mb, 250 mb Model Analysis- NAM vs. GFS Weather Discussion

Use of a Case Study The storm that we will be looking at is taking a track that is very common for many low-pressure systems that form in this area. Storms that form in this area do not always make landfall, but instead make a left turn up towards Canada and Alaska. This makes these storms commonly form very strong winds along the coast in the Pacific Northwest with gusts sometimes being hurricane-force. In our specific case we will be comparing this current storm with a severe windstorm that occurred on 1/1/2006 to see how similar or different their tracks, strength and impacts are/may be.

Southwest Sucker Track

0Z Surface Map (Our 0Z)

3Z Surface Map

6Z Surface Map

9Z Surface Map

12Z Surface Map

Case Study- Surface Map

Development of the Storm: IR Imagery (12am- 10/23)

Development of the Storm: IR Imagery (8am- 10/23)

Development of the Storm: IR Imagery (12pm- 10/23)

Development of the Storm: IR Imagery (4pm- 10/23)

Development of the Storm: IR Imagery (10pm- 10/23)

Development of the Storm: IR Imagery (2am- 10/24)

Development of the Storm: IR Imagery (7:45am- 10/24) https://www.atmos.was hington.edu/weather/sa t.shtml#

Current Radar (9am)

QPF Forecast(0Z)

Southwest Sucker Track

0Z Surface Map vs. Current Surface Map

1/1/2006 Surface Map vs. 1/2/2006 Surface Map

Case Study Track

850 mb Analysis (0Z)

850 mb Analysis (12Z)

850 mb Analysis (0Z Tuesday)

700 mb Analysis (6Z)

700 mb Analysis (12Z)

700 mb Analysis (18Z)

500 mb Case Study- 1/1/06

500 mb Case Study-1/2/06

500 mb- Vorticity(0Z)

500 mb- Vorticity (12Z)

500 mb- Vorticity (0Z- 10/25)

250 mb Analysis (0Z)

250 mb Analysis (12Z)

250 mb Analysis (0Z- 10/25)

Model Forecast: NAM 48 hour(0Z- 10/26)

Model Forecast: GFS 48 hour (0Z- 10/26)

Model Forecast: NAM 60 hour (12Z- 10/26)

Model Forecast: GFS 60 hour(12Z- 10/26)

Model Forecast: NAM 72 hour(0Z- 10/27)

Model Forecast: GFS 72 hour(0Z- 10/27)

Current Weather Discussion- Seattle

Current Weather Discussion- Portland

Current Warnings/Watches

Case Study- Warnings/Watches

Case Study Wind Gusts vs. Projected Wind Gusts

Conclusions/Questions?!?!?