Summary of West Virginia Statewide Polling

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Presentation transcript:

Summary of West Virginia Statewide Polling Findings and Recommendations from the West Virginia Statewide Assessment December 2016

Methodology A statewide survey of n=603 registered voters was conducted by telephone using professional interviewers, including 40% of all interviews conducted via cell phone. Interviews were conducted November 14-17, 2016. The margin of error for the whole sample is plus or minus 4.0% at the 95% level of confidence. The margin of error for subgroups varies and is higher.

KEY FINDING #1 Voters believe the state’s current budget situation is very serious and 70% are willing to personally pay more in taxes to avoid cuts to critical priorities like schools and public safety.

West Virginia Statewide Nearly all West Virginians believe the state’s budget woes are “serious” with two-thirds in the “very serious” column. As you may know, West Virginia currently faces a budget gap of roughly $400 million for next year’s state budget. From what you know, how serious a problem is the state budget situation? 90 5 West Virginia Statewide

Seven in ten voters indicate a willingness to pay more in taxes if assured it will mean maintaining funding for key priorities. Even Republicans say they are willing to pay more in this scenario. And thinking about the state taxes you pay, would you be willing or not willing to maintain funding for public schools, public safety, and aging roads and bridges in West Virginia, even if that meant raising your own state taxes? % Strongly Willing 46% 52% 45% 39% NET +44 +61 +43 +29

KEY FINDING #2 Voters believe corporations and the wealthy are not paying their fair share of state taxes and that corporate tax breaks are more to blame for the budget shortfall than a lack of spending cuts. And strong majorities are willing to increase taxes on those at the top to avoid cuts to education.

Who is seen as paying LESS than their fair share of state taxes? Large Corporations, the natural gas industry, and households earning $200k+ are seen as those not paying their share. For each, please tell me if you think they are paying more than their fair share of state taxes, about the right amount, or less than their fair share. LESS

Who is seen as paying MORE than their fair share of state taxes? The middle class, small businesses, and low-income workers are those seen as forced to pay more than their share. For each, please tell me if you think they are paying more than their fair share of state taxes, about the right amount, or less than their fair share. MORE

When asked to assign blame for the budget shortfall, nearly half blame tax breaks for those at the top, with fewer saying the state did not cut enough. And if you had to choose one policy to blame for the state’s budget shortfall, which do you think is most to blame?

Raising taxes on corporate landowners, corporate landowners, and those earning $200K+ are broadly popular. An increase in the soda tax is also acceptable to a large portion of the electorate. Now I’m going to read you a list of potential sources of revenue for state government. Assuming that the new revenue would go to fund important needs in West Virginia, please tell me if you'd favor or oppose each. Revenue Sources % Strongly Favor Add $10.00 per acre tax on corporate landowners who own more than 500 acre parcels 49% Raise income taxes by 3% on households making more than $200,000 a year 46% Add a new, $0.01 per ounce tax on soda and other sugar sweetened beverages 47% Raise income taxes on corporations from 6.5% to 9% 35%

There is less voter appetite to raising the state sales tax or addressing the severance tax on natural gas. Now I’m going to read you a list of potential sources of revenue for state government. Assuming that the new revenue would go to fund important needs in West Virginia, please tell me if you'd favor or oppose each. Revenue Sources % Strongly Oppose Raise the severance tax on natural gas from 5% of the wellhead price to 10% 33% Raise the state sales tax by an additional penny from 6% to 7% 43% Reinstate the retail sales tax on grocery items 52%

Require that any new taxes would be temporary and expire after 3 years Making revenue measures temporary or including a refundable state Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) are both elements of a tax proposal that make voters more likely to line up in support. Proposals to Raise Revenue Require that any new taxes would be temporary and expire after 3 years Require that any new taxes include a state EITC, which would provide an average refund of $330 for low-income workers and offset the impact of any tax increases for these workers

KEY FINDING #3 Voters are very protective of education funding.

There is majority opposition to all of the possible cuts tested, with education cuts followed by DNR considered the most objectionable. Potential Cuts Layoff 800 teachers and an additional 500 bus drivers, cafeteria workers and teachers' aides 89 Cut K-12 education 88 Close state parks and layoff over 1,000 employees who work for the DNR 83 Increase tuition at colleges and universities by 20% 83 Cut state community colleges 80 Close between 7-10 colleges and universities around the state 79 Cut state four-year colleges and universities 78 Close county health departments, which would cut treatment programs for heroin and opioid addicts, including anti-overdose medication 72 Eliminate the Promise scholarship, which provides a merit based financial aid to state colleges and universities 71