Minerals and metals for a low Carbon Future: the need for ‘Climate Smart Mining’ Kirsten Hund Sr. Mining Specialist World Bank

Without metals there would simply be no low carbon future possible… One 3-MW turbine contains 335 tons of steel. 4.7 tons of copper. 1,200 tons of concrete (cement and aggregates) 3 tons of aluminum. 2 tons of rare earth elements. aluminum. zinc. molybdenum (NW Mining Association)

Electric hybrid cars use twice as much copper as non-hybrid cars the green economy is now driving demand for new minerals & metals – electric car example. The FT this week reported that Lithium is growing at 10% per year. Doubling every 7 years! This is Kiira Ev, the first electric car of Africa, Electric hybrid cars use twice as much copper as non-hybrid cars, and the average hybrid car consumes 19 major mineral groups sourced in over 50 countries; including the above noted Rare Earth Minerals

The Growing Role of Minerals for a Low carbon future Examines the implications of changing material requirements for the mining/metals industry as a result of low carbon energy future. How can resource rich developing countries best position themselves to take advantage of the evolving commodities market ?

IEA’s ETP 2016 Scenarios IEA’s Energy Technology Perspective Scenarios For Electricity Installed Capacity Does not look at material implications Source: IEA ETP 2016

Example: Change in metal demand from Solar PV The report clearly shows that the technologies assumed to populate the clean energy shift - wind, solar, hydrogen and electricity systems - are in fact significantly MORE material intensive in their composition than current traditional fossil-fuel-based energy supply systems. Precise estimates on the actual demand for metals depend on at least two independent variables: The extent to which the global community of nations actually succeeds in meeting its long-term Paris climate goals and The nature of intra-technology choices. In other words, for example, not only is it a function of how many wind turbines, solar panels and low emission road vehicles will be deployed, but which wind, solar technologies and zero/low emission vehicles will dominate. Source: WB Analysis Note: Values are derived from mean value of ‘metal per MW’ demand

Many resources will come from developing countries

Example: Mapping Critical metals: 1: Bauxite/ Aluminium Bauxite Production and Reserves for 2015 (Thousand Metric Tons)   Mine Production Reserves AUSTRALIA 80,000 6,200,000 CHINA 60,000 830,000 MALAYSIA 21,200 40,000 INDIA 19,200 590,000 GUINEA 17,700 7,400,000 JAMAICA 10,700 2,000,000 GREECE 6,600 250,000 RUSSIA 200,000 KAZAKHSTAN 5,200 160,000 SURINAME 2,200 580,000 BRAZIL 2,000 2,600,000 GUYANA 1,700 850,000 VENEZUELA 1,500 320,000 VIETNAM 1,100 2,100,000 INDONESIA 1,000 1,000,000 USA N/A 20,000 OTHER COUNTRIES 8,500 2,400,000 TOTAL 274,000 28,000,000 Developing Countries % of Bauxite Production represents 52%, without China, 30%. Developing Countries % of Bauxite Reserves represents 65%, without China 63%.

Example 2: Mapping Critical metals: Manganese Manganese Production and Reserves for 2015 (Thousand metric tons)   Production Reserves SOUTH AFRICA 6,200 200,000 CHINA 3,000 44,000 AUSTRALIA 2,900 91,000 GABON 1,800 22,000 BRAZIL 1,000 50,000 INDIA 950 52,000 MALAYSIA 400 N/A GHANA 390 13,000 KAZAKHSTAN 5,000 UKRAINE 140,000 MEXICO 240 BURMA 100 USA OTHER COUNTRIES 740 SMALL TOTAL 18,000 620,000 Developing countries % of manganese production 79%, without China 63% Developing countries % of manganese reserves 54%, without China, 47%

The carbon footprint of Mineral extraction and metal production needs to be considered

By investing in clean energy.. WBG Mining and Climate Change-Indaba 2017

By Contributing to Landscape Management ( including infrastructure planning) and Forest Conservation

Climate Change is also impacting mining Adaptation is Needed

And Long term Strategic (and Spatial) Planning Based on reliable and robust data ( which are lacking in most developing countries)

Conclusions Meeting the Paris climate target of not exceeding 2C global warming over this century will require a radical restructuring of energy supply and transmission systems globally; The technologies assumed to populate the clean energy shift are significantly MORE material intensive in their composition than current traditional/fossil fuel based energy supply systems The form in which metal demand will increase depends on both inter-technology choices as well as intra-technology choices within particular technologies; Need for a flexible approach Demand for Key base metals under a low carbon energy shift will increase : copper, silver, aluminum (bauxite), nickel, zinc, and possibly platinum Rare earth elements demand increase: neodymium, indium and lithium among others;

Conclusions More production will have to come from Resource rich developing countries to address demand in relevant commodities: Need for robust Geological data Increased governance and environmental management Factoring in mineral demand and associated footprint implications into climate change strategies A Dialogue between the Mining and Metals Community and the Climate Change/ Sustainable Development Community on developing a coherent approach is needed