Part 1: The Conceptual Framework Hazard → Disaster Risk/Probability of a Disaster

The Language of Disaster Hazard Event Damage Change in Function Disaster Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

The Language of Disaster Hazard Event Damage Change in Function Disaster Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

Hazard Anything that may pose a danger Natural or human-made phenomenon or mixture of both Has the potential to adversely affect human health, property, activity, and/or the environment “potential energy” Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

Hazards Natural Human-made (anthropogenic) Mixed (natural + human) Seismic Climatic Infectious diseases Mixed (natural + human) Health related Human-made (anthropogenic) Technological Stored chemicals Unstable structure Unexploded bomb Material transport Potential Conflict Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

The Language of Disaster Hazard Event Damage Change in Function Disaster Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

Event An occurrence that has the potential to affect living things and/or the environment The actualization of the hazard Primary (precipitating) event: event responsible for initiating the damage; example-Hurricane Katrina Secondary event: events that result from the primary event: example: flood of New Orleans as a result of Hurricane Katrina Release of energy Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

event hazard Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

Events Natural Human-made (anthropogenic) Seismic Technological Earthquake Volcanic Tsunami Climatic Wind Precipitation Lightning Temperatures Erosion Drought Desertification Floods Human-made (anthropogenic) Technological Substance release Transport Structural failure Explosions Fire Environmental interference Conflict Armed (war, terrorism, complex) Unarmed (sanctions, embargo) Mixed Landslide Epidemic Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

Characteristics of Events Onset Scope Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

Components of scope Amplitude: measure of power Flood crest, storm surge height, Richter scale Intensity: amplitude/sample time Rainfall/hour Scale: intensity in an area (intensity x area) Incidence of disease in county, hectares flooded Magnitude: total energy of the event (scale x duration) Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

Characteristics of Events Scope Amplitude Time interval Intensity Area Scale Total Duration Magnitude (total energy) Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

The Language of Disaster Hazard Risk 1 Risk Modification Event Damage Change in Function Disaster Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

The Language of Disaster Hazard Risk 1 Modification Event Damage Change in Function Disaster Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

Damage Harm or injury impairing the value or usefulness of something, or the health or normal function of persons The negative result of an event on structures Humans and other living things Human-built structure Environment Adverse consequence of energy release Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

event damage Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

The Language of Disaster Hazard Risk 1 Modification Event Risk 2 Absorbing Capacity Damage Change in Function Disaster Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

Absorbing capacity The ability to absorb the free energy of an event without sustaining damage Levees Building codes Reforestation Boarding windows Bomb shelters Bullet proof vests Armor Air bags Mitigation is anything done to increase absorbing capacity Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

Relationship between Damage and Absorbing Capacity Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

The Language of Disaster Hazard Risk 1 Modification Event Risk 2 Absorbing Capacity Damage Change in Function Disaster Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

Change in Function Damage can result in a change in function Broken pipe leads to loss of water supply Damaged bridge leads to loss of means of transportation Broken leg leads to loss of mobility Collapsed building leads to loss of shelter Flooded field leads to loss of food supply Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

The Language of Disaster Hazard Risk 1 Modification Event Risk 2 Absorbing Capacity Damage Risk 3 Buffering Capacity Change in Function Disaster Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

Buffering Capacity The ability of a society to cope with damage and to function despite damage The ability to maintain essential functions for a change in available resources Surplus Evacuation Emergency Medical Services Shelters Caches of supplies Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

The Language of Disaster Hazard Risk 1 Modification Event Risk 2 Absorbing Capacity Damage Risk 3 Buffering Capacity Change in Function Disaster Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

Disaster A serious disruption of the functioning of a society, causing widespread human, material, and/or environmental losses, which exceed the ability of an affected society to cope using only its own resources Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

The Language of Disaster Hazard Risk 1 Modification Event Risk 2 Absorbing Capacity Damage Risk 3 Buffering Capacity Change in Function Risk 4 Responses Disaster Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

The Language of Disaster Hazard Risk 1 Modification Event Risk 2 Absorbing Capacity Damage Preparedness Risk 3 Buffering Capacity Change in Function Responses Risk 4 Disaster Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP Resilience

Preparedness Preparedness = risk management = absorbing capacity + buffering capacity + response capacity Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

The Language of Disaster Hazard Risk 1 Modification Event Risk 2 Absorbing Capacity Damage Preparedness Vulnerability Risk 3 Buffering Capacity Change in Function Responses Risk 4 Disaster Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

Figure 3.4 Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

The Language of Disaster Must distinguish between Hazard Event Damage Disaster Their at at least four (4) different risks (probabilities) that comprise the risk for a disaster Must separate Absorbing Capacity Buffering Capacity Response The Event IS NOT the Disaster!!!!!! Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

What is depicted below? A. Hazard B. Event C. Damage D. Disaster E. Change in function E. Change in Function Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

What is depicted below? A. Hazard B. Event C. Damage D. Disaster Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

What is depicted below? A. Hazard B. Event C. Damage D. Disaster Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

What is depicted below? A. Response B. Absorbing Capacity C. Buffering Capacity D. Disaster B. Absorbing Capacity Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

Which of the following was a health disaster? A. 1994 Northridge Earthquake B. 1995 Oklahoma City bombing C. 2001 World Trade Center attack D. 2001 US anthrax letter attacks E. All of the above D. 2001 US anthrax letter attacks Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

Task 1 Tables to complete Exercise 1 A few participants will present results to group for discussion Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP