NOAA Working In Partnership Marine Partnership-MIST Cluster New Orleans, Louisiana August, 2016 Tim Osborn, NOAA Partnerships- NAFSMA and NOAA- Inundation and Water Management and Protection

Looking to the Future Landscape and Rising Risk to Coastal Areas and Populations is Critical- Managing the Risk and Trying to Avoid Catastrophic Impacts to Coastal Areas and People are Important Actions Now

The Economy and Employment and Trade All Depend Upon Gulf Industries, the Environment and How We Work Within This Environment

New Orleans- Present Day, Approximately 50% at or Below Sea Level in Elevation

A Home in New Orleans East- Subsidence of the Ground has left the home (supported by piles underneath the house) perched well above the surrounding landscape

Dynamic Considerations in the Operation and Maintenance and Enhancements of Flood Protection Levees and Structures Relative to Changing Coastal Elevations and Rising Sea Levels

Absolute Gravity Studies Supported by NOAA- Showing 9 Absolute Gravity Studies Supported by NOAA- Showing 9.1 mm of Subsidence in the New Orleans Area (not counting ~2.5 mm of SLR)

NOAA’s Resources in the Measuring and Reporting of Sea Level Rise Trends is a National Effort Joined into an International Collaboration to Observe and Report on Sea Level Trends

Use of these Trends and the Analysis of Coastal Elevations has assisted the State and Lafourche Parish and Port Fourchon Assess the Flooding Outlook of Louisiana LA-1 for the Unelevated Section below Golden Meadow

Impact of Rising Water Level Values Being Updated by NOAA on Critical Infrastructure- Louisiana Highway LA-1 – The Only Road Access to Port Fourchon and Grand Isle NOAA studies of the rise of water and subsidence of the land in south Lafourche Parish shows that Louisiana Highway LA-1 (from Golden Meadow to Leeville) will be closed over 150 days a year from high tides by 2040, and 365 days of the year by 2066 Increasing Rate of Flooding and Closures of Louisiana LA-1 South of Golden Meadow as Water Levels Rise

With a Very High Rate Trend for SE Louisiana from the Long Term Observations by NOAA and Others for Grand Isle

Present Trends Shown with Two Possible Trend Increases that Both NOAA and USACE have Reported for the Grand Isle and SE Louisiana Area

An Effort was Implemented by NOAA CO-OPS to Update the Posted Water Levels of Various Coastal Areas on a Shorter- 5 Year Cycle

Continued Updates on a Five Year Cycle is Planned in the Future Posting of Adjusted Values to Mean Sea Level Occurred Last Week by NOAA CO-OPS for the Time Period 2007-2011 The Adjustment was 1.32 inches for the Station and a Listing of Subordinate Stations with Coverage across SE Coastal Louisiana This Adjustment in just a Five Year Period is in Response to the Large Shifts in Such a Short Timeframe for a Coastal Area that has Such Low Coastal Elevation Profiles Continued Updates on a Five Year Cycle is Planned in the Future

Use of NOAA’s Relative Sea Level Rise Rates are used to Project the Coastal Land Areas that will be at or below Sea Level in elevation by 2050

Use of NOAA’s Relative Sea Level Rise Rates are used to Project the Coastal Land Areas that will be at or below Sea Level in elevation by 2100

Looking Forward at the Future of the Coast, 7 Large Parishes are Projected to have well over the majority of their land areas at or below sea level in elevation

Indeed, A Lot of Discussion Around this High Rate of Relative Change is Very Common

Coastal Residents Assessment of Risk from Flooding and Storms Have a Large Impact on Coastal Population Movement and Economic Impact

View of the Interior of the Caminada Headland- Found Between Fourchon and Grand Isle As the Coast Converts Back to Open Water- Flooding Risks to Coastal Cities and Communities Grow Rapidly and We See Populations Moving Farther Inland Today at Rapid Rate

NOAA and Spot Weather Forecasting NOAA NWS EDD

NOAA and Spot Weather Forecasting NOAA NWS EDD

NOAA and Spot Weather Forecasting NOAA NWS EDD

Integrated Northern Gulf Operational Forecast System (NGOFS) NCEP’s G-RTOFS NGOFS Coastal/Shelf Models (Bridge between Global model and Estuarine/Bay models) Bay/Estuarine Models (high-resolution to resolve navigational needs) NGOFS This is an example from a global (RTOFS) to shelf (NGOFS) and to a estuary/bay OFS NWGOFS NEGOFS

Products from NGOFS Surface Currents Water Level Surface Temperature The primary users’ requirement for having NOS forecast systems is to support the safe & efficient navigation, which includes; the needs of water levels for under-keel clearance, the currents for Coast Guard right-of-way decision making and pilot maneuverability Finally, for coastal zone management including the ecosystem applications and marine geospatial applications Surface Salinity

Higher Density Grid - Currents GBOFS NWGOFS

Technology and Information Transfer and Partnerships are Critical We need your help in applications and use of technology and science we are advancing Coastal Gulf States are Critical to the movement forward in new jobs, industries, institutions and use of technology The population and economy of the Nation is moving to the Coast