Responding to Climate Change in China By Dr. R.K. Pachauri Former Chairman, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2002-2015 EU – China NGO Twinning Workshop, Changsha August 20, 2016

The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report A clear and up to date view of the current state of scientific knowledge relevant to climate change. Working group I The Physical Science Basis 259 authors 39 countries 54,677 comments 2 million gigabytes of numerical data from climate model simulations Over 9200 scientific publications cited Working Group II Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability 309 authors 70 countries 50,444 comments Over 12,000 scientific references cited Working Group III Mitigation of Climate Change 235 authors 57 countries 38,315 comments Close to 1200 scenarios of socioeconomic development analyzed Close to 10,000 references to literature

The IPCC Synthesis Report Integration of three Working Group Reports of the 5th Assessment, 2013-2014 WGI: The Physical Science Basis WGII: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability WGIII: Climate Change Mitigation 51 members of the Core Writing Team 18 members of the Extended Writing Team 18 countries 8105 comments Chaired by the IPCC Chair R.K. Pachauri Member governments approved the SPM on 1 November 2014 (total membership of IPCC is 195 governments)

Key Messages Human influence on the climate system is clear The more we disrupt our climate, the more we risk severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts We have the means to limit climate change and build a more prosperous, sustainable future Source: AR5 WGI SPM, AR5 WGII SPM, AR5 WGIII SPM

Humans are changing the climate It is extremely likely that we are the dominant cause of warming since the mid-20th century Year Globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperatures Source: AR5 WGI SPM

Temperatures continue to rise Each of the past 3 decades has been successively warmer than the preceding decades since 1850 Year Globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperatures Source: AR5 WGI SPM

Oceans absorb most of the heat More than 90% of the energy accumulating in the climate system between 1971 and 2010 has accumulated in the ocean Land temperatures remain at historic highs while ocean temperatures continue to climb Source: AR5 SYR

Source: AR5 SYR SPM

Source: AR5 SYR SPM

Source: AR5 SYR SPM

Agriculture, forests and other land uses Sources of emissions Energy production remains the primary driver of GHG emissions 6.4% 24% 21% 14% 35% Building Sector Agriculture, forests and other land uses Transport Industry Energy Sector 2010 GHG emissions Source: AR5 WGIII SPM

Some of the changes in extreme weather and climate events observed since about 1950 have been linked to human influence Source: AR5 WGI SPM

Impacts are already underway Tropics to the poles On all continents and in the ocean Affecting rich and poor countries Source: AR5 WGII SPM

Projected climate changes Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and changes in the climate system Oceans will continue to warm during the 21st century Global mean sea level will continue to rise during the 21st century It is very likely that the Arctic sea ice cover will continue to shrink and thin as global mean surface temperature rises Global glacier volume will further decrease Source: AR5 WGI SPM

Potential Impacts of Climate Change Increased displacement of people Food and water shortages Increased poverty Coastal flooding Source: AR5 WGII SPM

Climate Change Poses Risk for Food Production Percentage of yield projections Source: AR5 SYR SPM

Impacts of Climate Change on China Major increase in temperature, particularly Northern China Over the period 2046-2065 major temperature increase projected Annual mean soil moisture projected to decrease Annual run off, i.e. water discharged from major rivers, projected to decrease Adverse impacts on yields of rice, particularly in Eastern China Maize yield likely to decrease by 25% by the 2080s Shanghai likely to face high risk of floods Adverse impacts on health, such as from dengue fever Overall adverse impact on water availability

Limiting Temperature Increase to 2˚C Global GHG emissions reduction of 40-70 % in 2050 compared to 2010 Net zero or negative GHG emissions in 2100 Global emissions to curb within next 5-15 years Source: AR5 WGIII SPM

Mitigation Measures More efficient use of energy Greater use of low-carbon and no-carbon energy • Many of these technologies exist today Improved carbon sinks • Reduced deforestation and improved forest management and planting of new forests • Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage Lifestyle and behavioural changes Source: AR5 WGIII SPM

The window for action is rapidly closing 65% of our carbon budget compatible with a 2°C goal already used Amount Remaining: Total Carbon Budget: 1000 GtCO2 Amount Used 1870-2011: 2900 GtCO2 1900 GtCO2 Source: AR5 WGI SPM

What will Paris achieve? Will exceed the 2oC target Does not involve binding commitments No provision for penalising failure Ignores the message of urgency in IPCC’s AR5 Upgradation of INDCs only in 2018 and then again in 2023

All stakeholders on board Essential for governments, businesses and research organisations to evaluate compliance with 20C limit Greatest assurance of 20C limit lies in RCP 2.6 scenario Hence, essential for global society to constantly evaluate commitments against RCP 2.6 as a pathway INDCs dependent on level of ambition in different societies Hence, crucially important to raise the level of ambition worldwide

Mitigation opportunities and the role of technology Ultimate objectives of Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Mitigation scenarios reaching about 450 to 500 ppm CO2eq by 2100 show significant co-benefits. Infrastructure and products with long life could lock societies into rigid technologies. Substantial cuts in GHG emissions required by mid-century through large-scale changes in energy systems. Global CO2 emissions from energy supply sector required to decline over the next decades by reductions of 90% or more below 2010 levels between 2040 and 2070. Behaviour, lifestyle and culture have a considerable influence on energy use and associated emissions, with high mitigation potential in some sectors, in particular when complementing technological and structural change.

Mitigation opportunities and the role of technology (contd…) Decarbonization of electricity generation is a key component of mitigation strategies. Renewable energy technologies are very attractive options with rapid cost reduction and efficiency improvements Aggregate economic costs of mitigation vary widely, and would require coordinated pricing of carbon

What is the POP Movement? Addresses the Urgent Need to Share Information and Knowledge Among Youth About Solutions to: Achieve Sustainable Development Goals Mitigate Climate Change Adapt to the Impacts of Climate Change PROTECT OUR PLANET

Why the POP Movement? Current Lack of Knowledge, Awareness and Inertia to Implement Climate Change Solutions are a Major Gap in Action The POP Movement Will Create and Serve the Massive Demand for Action That Can Be Implemented in Schools, Colleges and Communities Worldwide Knowledge About Climate Change Solutions Will Be Provided as Part of the POP Movement PROTECT OUR PLANET

What Does POP Do? The POP Movement: Mobilizes Young People Globally to Protect Our Planet Promotes Collective Action, Especially Among Youth to Implement Solutions Needed to Mitigate Climate Change Recognizes and Reward Youth-Led Actions, Exemplary Initiatives, and Success Stories PROTECT OUR PLANET

POP in 2016

International Advisory Board PROTECT OUR PLANET

Global Partnerships PROTECT OUR PLANET

Launch in Mexico POP Launches on Earth Day 2016 Address in the Mexican Parliament Talk at the Annual Environmental Film Festival at Cuernavaca PROTECT OUR PLANET

Upcoming Dominican Republic Launch Launch with DREFF in the Dominican Republic – September 2016 PROTECT OUR PLANET

POP Festival in New York, 2017 POP Will Host a Festival in New York Showcase Youth Action to Protect Our Planet Launch US Partnerships Support Networking and Cross-Learning PROTECT OUR PLANET

“Speed is irrelevant if you are going in the wrong direction” - Mahatma Gandhi If you think in terms of a year, plant a seed; if in terms of ten years, plant trees; if in terms of 100 years, teach the people. - Confucius