الدولة الإسلامية في العراق والشام‎ ISIS, ISIL, IS, Da’ish, Daesh or al dawla al Islamiya fi al Iraq wal sham? Not to be confused with “Daes” – to crush.

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Presentation transcript:

الدولة الإسلامية في العراق والشام‎ ISIS, ISIL, IS, Da’ish, Daesh or al dawla al Islamiya fi al Iraq wal sham? Not to be confused with “Daes” – to crush underfoot

Heir to the Caliph? Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi Sultan Abdulmecid

In reality the heir to AQI (al Qaeda of Iraq) Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi Killed by US special forces in a small cinder block farm house 40 miles north of Baghdad in 2006 Alienated al Qaeda leadership due to his brutality Tapped into hostility/humiliation of disenfranchised Sunni 2006 Anbar Awakening

Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham

Who makes up ISIS? Three Factions Foreign Sunni Volunteers Former Iraqi Sunni Bathist Army officers True Ideologues – Abu Bakr al Baghdadi & his apocalyptic version of Islam

WHY? US invasion in 2003 US Withdrawal Chaos in Iraq and Syria “Hamsa Rules” in Syria Failure of al Maliki government in Iraq Stoking of sectarian tensions by both govts. Western failure to support “moderate” rebels in Syria Kurdish desire for independence RD in the Arab World – US mistake of “overestimating the power of religious ideology and under appreciating the impact of misgovernance.”

Who are the enemies of ISIS? US Russia Turkey Kurds Yazidi Barzani Talabani PKK YPG (Syrian People’s Protection Brigades) Iraqi Army Syrian Army Nusra Front Al Qaeda Shia Militias Badr organization Madi Army (Muktada al Sadr)

Areas of Kurdish inhabitants 25 Million live in Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Iran and Armenia The largest nation without a state

Putin’s Intervention And Pullout? Goals: Bringing Russia back to center stage in the global arena Preventing Regime Change in Syria (particularly by outside powers) Strengthening Pres. Assad Maintain base in Syria Picking off Russian Jihadists on the battlefield

Tactics, Future & Solution Abu Bakr al Baghdadi’s ex-wife says “he was a good father and not a violent man”.

“The enemy of my enemy is my friend”

A Syrian Civil War a “The enemy of my enemy is my friend”………….Not Likely in Syria

A war against ISIL

The Kurds and Turkey Attaturk’s 1924 Decree Sheik Said Rebellion “Mountain Turks” 1978 PKK (Partia Karkarem Kurdistan 40 K fatalities Erdogan’s 1991 law change

Discussion Questions Why did ISIL/Daesh rise to prominance? Why is ISIL/Daesh important? Why have they been able to recruit so effectively? Who are their friends and enemies? Have they been controlled and are they in decline? What should the U.S. do?

Paris 2015 Ankara 2015 Brussels 2016 Next?