CMIP6 Catherine Senior C Senior, WGRC Montevideo, 14th March 2014 MOHC Seminar, December 3rd, 2013 C Senior, WGRC Montevideo, 14th March 2014 © Crown copyright Met Office

CMIP history The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) is organised by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Working group on Coupled Models (WGCM) current WGCM co-chairs are Sandrine Bony and Catherine Senior (just taken over from Jerry Meehl) Within WGCM there is a CMIP panel (chaired by Veronika Eyring) that directly oversees CMIP activities CMIP provides a coordinated multi-model experiment framework to address compelling science questions and new scenarios CMIP is not dictated by IPCC CMIP5 was the first distributed data source and a significant step-up in terms of coordinated experimental design © Crown copyright Met Office

CMIP5 experience CMIP5 experimental design (Taylor et al 2009) has created an enormous resource and enabled a large amount of science Large numbers of idealised experiments Complex RCP process but reasonable scenarios generated Emissions v Concentrations simulations First effort at near term prediction Core v tiers Distributed data sources Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) used for data archival and retrieval Lots of problems/delays in governance and delivering workable solution Metadata Lack of stable funding © Crown copyright Met Office

Development, Evaluation and Characterization (DECK) Experiments CMIP6: Towards understanding past, present and future climate CMIP 6 will be a distributed organization which will; Establish a set of CMIP ongoing model development evaluation and characterization experiments to gain basic information about model performance and sensitivity; done by most groups as part of the development cycle. revisited whenever a new model was developed The basis for the Model Intercomparison Projects Evolve only slowly (10-15 yr time scales) CMIP Panel continues to manage the details of these experiments Provide a benchmarking and evaluation tool run on ESGF Development, Evaluation and Characterization (DECK) Experiments AMIP (~1979-2010), Pre-industrial control, 1%/yr CO2 to quadrupling, Instantaneous 4xCO2, Historical simulation-> RCP8.5 (concentrations for AOGCMs, emissions/concentrations for ESMs?) © Crown copyright Met Office

CMIP6: Towards understanding past, present and future climate CMIP 6 will be a distributed organization which will; Promote sets of experiments to address science questions within the context of the WCRP Grand Challenges and AIMES input specific to CMIP6: Systematic biases Response to forcings Variability, predictability and future scenarios WCRP Grand Challenges Clouds, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity Changes in Cryosphere Climate Extremes Regional Climate Information Regional Sea-level Rise Water Availability Theme for collaboration: biospheric forcings and feedbacks © Crown copyright Met Office

CMIP6: Towards understanding past, present and future climate CMIP 6 will be a distributed organization which will; Around these experiments build CMIP6 with additional, specialized intercomparisons (“MIPs”) that would make use of the same standards and infrastructure. Individual MIPs work with CMIP Panel to coordinate details of experimental design and variable lists and etc.; each MIP would designate which experiments would contribute to the CMIP6 science questions and thus target for wider participation of many modeling groups, and they could have other specialized experiments for their own communities CMIP Panel has oversight and identifies the elements of the MIP experiments that are part of CMIP6 MIPs can run throughout CMIP6 cycle not necessarily all at end MIPs CFMIP, PMIP, CORDEX, Transpose-AMIP, C4MIP, CCMI, Decadal (DCPP), GeoMIP, … LUMIP, ScenarioMIP http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014EO090001/abstract © Crown copyright Met Office

Systematic Bias Response to forcings Variability, predictabiity, Ocean processes Other MIP experiments Cloud feedbacks Model errors AMIP CMIP6 experiments Systematic Bias Chemistry/ stratosphere Paleo- climate CMIP: Ongoing model development,evaluation, characterization standardization coordination, infrastructure, documentation Scenarios Emission engineering Geo- Response to forcings Variability, predictabiity, future scenarios Decadal prediction Carbon cycle Detection/ attribution Regional climate/ extremes Land use 7

Communication and responsibilities CMIP Panel (5 people) facilitates communication between MIP co-chairs and the model group contacts to help with coordination between MIPs, and between the MIPs and the modeling groups. Assisted by WGCM members CMIP Panel: Coordinate diagnosis and evaluation simulations with the community Approve experiments and variable lists etc. that are to be part of CMIP6 Coordinate with WCRP Grand Challenges MIPs: Address WCRP Grand Challenges and science questions Suggest model simulations to address these science questions Work with CMIP Panel for output list for CMIP6 data request, and supply rationalization for relevance of experiments to address science questions MIPs determine which experiments are run when © Crown copyright Met Office

Infrastructure Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) provides the backbone for the increasingly integrated system for distributing model (and observational) output Ability to use the software effectively critically depends on development and maintenance of standards for file formats, metadata, cataloguing, publication, node management etc – huge challenge as delegation of effort to MIPs increases Urgent need to find a route for modelling groups to participate in increasing numbers of MIPs without required logistical effort becoming untenable. Proposed WGCM Infrastructure Panel (WIP) which will consist of those responsible for infrastructure and also users e.g. those from modelling centres managing data provision and retrieval Establish and maintain standards for MIPs Possibly seek funding to provide properly tested standardised software © Crown copyright Met Office

Systematic Bias Response to forcings Variability, predictabiity, Ocean processes Other MIP experiments Cloud feedbacks Model errors AMIP CMIP6 experiments Systematic Bias Chemistry/ stratosphere Paleo- climate CMIP: Ongoing model development,evaluation, characterization standardization coordination, infrastructure, documentation Scenarios Emission engineering Geo- Response to forcings Variability, predictabiity, future scenarios Decadal prediction Carbon cycle Detection/ attribution Regional climate/ extremes Land use 10

CMIP6: next steps Lots of upcoming workshops and meetings Plans for CMIP6 to be published in EOS and the open for comment Final design will be agreed at WGCM18 in October 2014 © Crown copyright Met Office

HadGEM3-GC2 experiments Plan to perform a small sub-set of runs at N216 (60km) and N96 (135km) from CMIP5: AMIP (3.3) 1979-2008 Pre-industrial control (3.1) 100 to 500 years Historical (1850-2005) (3.2) 2?x156 years RCP 8.5 (2005-2100) (4.1) 95 years 1% year-1 to 4xCO2 (6.1) 140 years Step change to 4xCO2 (6.3) 150 years Emphasis initially on idealised scenarios rather than realistic RCPs. Understand impact of resolution (TCR, ECS, mechanisms of regional climate change) rather than focus on new projections.

ScenarioMIP A pair of two new scenarios (high/low) run by all models with new 20th century (to 2015) and 21st century forcings Scenario MIP matrix, modeling groups that subscribe run a pair of two additional new scenarios (Sample different combinations of scenario pairs and AOGCMs/ESMs (sampled in an appropriate way, e.g. climate sensitivity, enough realizations) Paired non-mitigation/mitigation scenarios Scenario Pair 1 Scenario Pair 2 Scenario Pair 3 Scenario Pair 4 Scenario Pair 1 IAM and climate modeling community decides which scenario pairs make most sense: baseline/mitigation scenario pairs for research on benefits of mitigation related to land use change, short lived climate forcers, etc. An overshoot scenario Model 1 AOGCMs and ESMs x Model 2 x new emissions and concentrations need to be generated) 3 x x 4 .

Summary CMIP6 will be a distributed organisation with much more engagement from MIPs in designing experiments and responsibility for diagnostics Science focus will be around WCRP Grand Challenges Challenge for data service and delivery through ESGF. Communication and application of standards will be critical to success New scenarios for near and long term and strong links to Climate Services HadGEM2-GC2 is our first step in ‘continuous model development’ and we are essentially running DECK experiments now © Crown copyright Met Office

Radiative feedbacks © Crown copyright Met Office