Effects of War Losses on Mortality Estimates for Italy and France Dana A. Glei University of California, Berkeley Silvia Bruzzone Istituto Nazionale di Statistica Graziella Caselli Università di Roma "La Sapienza" Acknowledgements: We gratefully acknowledge financial support for this project from the National Institute of Aging (grant RO1 AG11552).

Effects of War on Mortality Estimates Underestimate period mortality during wartime. Cohort mortality underestimates the true experience for cohorts with heavy war losses. Civilian population estimates during wartime may be inaccurate if war mortality and mobilization of military troops are not taken into account. Creates problems in using the intercensal survival method to estimate population size.

Vallin’s Work for France Adjusted wartime death counts and population estimates to represent the “total” population. Adjusted civilian (or “de facto”) population estimates to account for wartime mobilization/demobilization of troops, migration, and refugees. Derived estimates of deaths and population size by age and calendar year based on available information and various assumptions.

France: Period e0, Total vs. Civilian, Males, 1910-50

France: Period e0, Total vs. Civilian, Females, 1910-50

French Males aged 20-24: Deaths, Total vs. Civilian, 1910-50

French Males aged 20-24: Exposure Estimates, Total vs French Males aged 20-24: Exposure Estimates, Total vs. Civilian, 1910-50

French Males aged 20-24: Death Rates, Total vs. Civilian, 1910-50

French Male 1895 Cohort (turned age 20 in 1915): Death Rates, Total vs French Male 1895 Cohort (turned age 20 in 1915): Death Rates, Total vs. Civilian 1915 1920

Age Pyramid of resident population in ITALY January 1st 1978 Age distribution of the “real” population Age 57-63 WWI effects decrease and consequent increase of fertility in 1915-1921 Age 31-37 WWII effects decrease and consequent increase of fertility in 1941-1947 decrease and consequent increase of fertility in 1973-1977 Age 0-4 AGE MALES FEMALES WWI effects on these cohorts Birth year WWII effects on these cohorts Age Pyramid of resident population in ITALY January 1st 1978  

Accounting for Italian War Mortality, World War I Military-reported deaths during 1915-20 total 651K (Mortara, 1925). Subset of deaths (378K) available by calendar year. Distribute remaining deaths by year. Another sample of deaths (10,085) available by age group. Within each year, distribute deaths by age group. Problem: No data on number of troops mobilized/demobilized during war (to adjust civilian population estimates).

Approximation for Military Exposure Assume Italian military suffered same death rates (by age group) as the French military. Italian military death counts (by year and age group) are divided by French death rates to get exposure estimates. In general, results reasonable except: Total estimated exposure appears too high for 1919 (9.1 million; another source estimates the total number of Italian troops was 5.6 million). Military exposure for males aged 20-24 in 1917 implies that 99.6% of all males were in the military.

Military Deaths and Population Exposure, Totals by Year, World War I, Italy

Military Deaths and Adjusted Population Exposure, Totals by Year, World War I, Italy

Population Exposure, Total vs Population Exposure, Total vs. Civilian, Males aged 20-25, 1910-25, Italy

Accounting for Italian War Mortality, World War II Military deaths including missing persons (291K) are available by calendar year and by age group (Istituto Centrale di Statistica, 1957). Redistribute 1,115 deaths and 5,845 missing persons where year is unknown. Redistribute 2,800 deaths and 4,033 missing persons where age is unknown. Within calendar year, apply age distribution (by pre- and post-armistice) to estimated number of deaths. Again, lacking data on number of troops mobilized and demobilized during the war.

Italian Males: Deaths all Ages, Total vs. Civilian, 1910-50

Italian Males: Deaths at Ages 20-24, Total vs. Civilian, 1910-50

Italian Males: Death Rates at Ages 20-24, Total vs. Civilian, 1910-50

Italian Males: Life Expectancy at Birth, Total vs. Civilian, 1910-50

Male e0, HMD, France vs. Italy

Male e0, Total Population, France vs. Italy

Conclusions For France, war had a huge impact on mortality estimates. Evidence shown here suggests that war also had a substantial effect on Italian mortality. Adjustments for wartime population movements can have a big effect on civilian population estimates, and as a result, mortality estimates. Appropriate inter-country comparisons during wartime require data with comparable population coverage.