European Parliament, 30th March 2017

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Presentation transcript:

European Parliament, 30th March 2017 The employment and social situation in the USA in an increasingly digitalised labour market European Parliament, 30th March 2017 Professor Chris Forde Professor Mark Stuart

Background US ECONOMY Changes in labour market over last decade – but how much? Digitalisation Recession and recovery Assessing the Obama administration and looking forward

Key questions about US labour market How much has changed over the last decade? Effects of recession and recovery? How is the labour market regulated: Federal versus state? What forms of social protection are in place? Similarities and differences with EU?

Participation and employment rates Long-term falls. Why? ‘Discouraged workers’? Ageing workforce? Recession effects Disability rises Delayed retirement/increases in FT education

Participation rates 2000-2016, USA

The rate of unemployment in the USA

Youth unemployment in the USA, 2004-2017

Long-term unemployment in the USA, 2016

Responses to the recession Unemployment Insurance length extended American Recovery and Reconstruction Act (ARRA) - training Strong recovery? Underlying problems Digitalisation programmes – apprenticeships; high-tech training

Self-employment ?

Employment forms Part-time employment Temporary help employment Self-employment: BLS data: Bespoke surveys: Alternative workforce: 14.2m in 2005 to 23.6m in 2015. 0.5% working through online intermediary

Growth in employment: key sectors

Nominal wage growth, USA, 2008-2016

Wage inequality in the USA, 1979-2014

Employment protection More lightly regulated than EU At-will employment is common law Only ratified to ILO Conventions Federal labor law plus some state level legislation

Key elements of labour market protection in US No statutory rights to paid holidays Termination of contracts without notice Equal treatment legislation National Labor Relations Act and Board Union representation and ‘right to work’

Social protection: a laissez-faire approach Earned Income Tax Credit: ‘the nation’s largest anti- poverty programme’ (Reich, 2015). Social Security Act: old-age benefits Unemployment insurance

Healthcare protection/insurance USA: ‘hybrid’ system Workplace based insurance Gaps in coverage: 11% of population

The Affordable Care Act From January 2014, ‘individual mandate’ to have health insurance 10 million more covered Medicaid expansion at state level Trump - changes?

State level protection: the Minimum Wage Federal rate = $7.25. Value fallen in real terms Most states set own minimum wage The highest rate $11.5 Campaigns for $15 per hour

Thank you Any questions?