Impacts of Future Climate Change on Ukraine Transportation System Khomenko Inna Odessa State Environmental University Transportation not only affects climate, but are strongly influenced with the climate conditions, and key hubs of the transportation sector are cities. Transportation professionals are keenly aware of the effects of weather on system performance. Transportation infrastructure was designed for typical weather patterns, reflecting local climate and incorporating assumptions about a reasonable range of temperatures and precipitation levels. Climate change will affect transportation primarily through increases in several types of weather and climate extremes, such as very hot days; intense precipitation events; intense hurricanes; drought; and rising sea levels, coupled with storm surges and land subsidence. The impacts will vary by mode of transportation and region of the country, but they will be widespread and costly in both human and economic terms and will require significant changes in the planning, design, construction, operation, and maintenance of transportation systems. Owing to development of emission scenarios transportation decision makers have an opportunity now to prepare for projected climate changes.

Impacts of Future Climate Change on Ukraine Transportation System Khomenko Inna Odessa State Environmental University In the study impact of climate change on operation of road transport along two highways are analyzed on the basis of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Data contains series of daily mean and maximum temperature, daily liquid (or mixed) and solid precipitation, daily mean relative humidity and daily mean and maximum wind speed, obtained for the period of 2011 to 2050. Figure: Radiative Forcing of the Representative Concentration Pathways. From van Vuuren et al (2011) The Representative Concentration Pathways: An Overview. Climatic Change, 109 (1-2), 5-31. . The light grey area captures 98% of the range in previous IAM scenarios, and dark grey represents 90% of the range.

Impacts of Future Climate Change on Ukraine Transportation System Khomenko Inna Odessa State Environmental University Figure: ‘‘Odesa–Voznesensk–Dnipropetrovsk–Kharkiv’’ highway

Impacts of Future Climate Change on Ukraine Transportation System Khomenko Inna Odessa State Environmental University Figure: ‘‘Vinnytsia–Khmelnytskyi–Ternopil–Stryi–Uzhhorod’’ highway

Impacts of Future Climate Change on Ukraine Transportation System Khomenko Inna Odessa State Environmental University Changes in mean air temperatures along ‘‘Odesa–Voznesensk–Dnipropetrovsk–Kharkiv’’ highway For both scenarios it is revealed that in Odesa city significant increase of average yearly temperature by 2-3С is observed, in Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk slight growth of temperatures takes place and in Voznesensk, on the contrary, decrease in temperatures occurs.

Impacts of Future Climate Change on Ukraine Transportation System Khomenko Inna Odessa State Environmental University Changes in mean air temperatures along ‘‘Vinnytsia–Khmelnytskyi–Ternopil–Stryi–Uzhhorod’’ highway For both scenarios there is considerable decrease in temperatures in Uzhhorod and Stryi cities (both cities are situated in a mountainous area); in other cities we can see faint growth in temperatures (by 0,5C).

Impacts of Future Climate Change on Ukraine Transportation System Khomenko Inna Odessa State Environmental University Changes in mean air temperatures along ‘‘Odesa–Voznesensk–Dnipropetrovsk–Kharkiv’’ highway 99-th percentile 99-th percentile 1-st percentile 1-st percentile Changes in daily mean air temperatures along ‘‘Vinnytsia–Khmelnytskyi–Ternopil–Stryi–Uzhhorod’’ highway 99-th percentile 99-th percentile 1-st percentile 1-st percentile

Impacts of Future Climate Change on Ukraine Transportation System Khomenko Inna Odessa State Environmental University Change in mean air temperatures along ‘‘Odesa–Voznesensk–Dnipropetrovsk–Kharkiv’’ highway Change in mean air temperatures along ‘‘Vinnytsia–Khmelnytskyi–Ternopil–Stryi–Uzhhorod’’ highway

Impacts of Future Climate Change on Ukraine Transportation System Khomenko Inna Odessa State Environmental University Changes in extremum air temperatures along ‘‘Odesa–Voznesensk–Dnipropetrovsk–Kharkiv’’ highway

Impacts of Future Climate Change on Ukraine Transportation System Khomenko Inna Odessa State Environmental University Changes in extremum air temperatures along ‘‘Vinnytsia–Khmelnytskyi–Ternopil–Stryi–Uzhhorod’’ highway

Impacts of Future Climate Change on Ukraine Transportation System Khomenko Inna Odessa State Environmental University Change in daily mean precipitation along ‘‘Odesa–Voznesensk–Dnipropetrovsk–Kharkiv’’ highway

Impacts of Future Climate Change on Ukraine Transportation System Khomenko Inna Odessa State Environmental University Change in daily mean precipitation along ‘‘Vinnytsia–Khmelnytskyi–Ternopil–Stryi–Uzhhorod’’ highway

Impacts of Future Climate Change on Ukraine Transportation System Khomenko Inna Odessa State Environmental University Changes in number of days with events for 1961-1990 and 2021-2050 periods for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios along ‘‘Odesa–Voznesensk–Dnipropetrovsk–Kharkiv’’ highway FP – freezing precipitation ICG – ice-covered ground (refreezing of melted snow on the road) ICG with V≥10m/s – ice-covered ground with wind speed ≥10m/s SSC – ice and snow slippery coat SWG – slippery wet ground No data

Impacts of Future Climate Change on Ukraine Transportation System Khomenko Inna Odessa State Environmental University Changes in number of days with events for 1961-1990 and 2021-2050 periods for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios along ‘‘Vinnytsia–Khmelnytskyi–Ternopil–Stryi–Uzhhorod’’ highway FP – freezing precipitation ICG – ice-covered ground (refreezing of melted snow on the road) ICG with V≥10m/s – ice-covered ground with wind speed ≥10m/s SSC – ice and snow slippery coat SWG – slippery wet ground No data

Impacts of Future Climate Change on Ukraine Transportation System Khomenko Inna Odessa State Environmental University Change in daily mean and maximum wind speeds along ‘‘Odesa–Voznesensk–Dnipropetrovsk–Kharkiv’’ highway

Impacts of Future Climate Change on Ukraine Transportation System Khomenko Inna Odessa State Environmental University Change in daily mean and maximum wind speeds along ‘‘Vinnytsia–Khmelnytskyi–Ternopil–Stryi–Uzhhorod’’ highway