Overview Macroeconomic Perspective on Geo Workforce and the Higher Ed environment Strengthening the resilience of geo departments Looking at what defines a geo department Christopher Keane (AGI) and John Geissman (UT-Dallas)

The Changing Economic Landscape of Geoscience Christopher M. Keane AGU Heads & Chairs 11 December 2016

Enrollments Pure online-only majors

Degrees

Exit Survey Punch Points 33% of Bachelor graduates attended community college No link between high school Earth Science experience and becoming a major Marked number reporting not bothering to look for employment in geoscience because they assume there was no hiring

New Visualization of Student Pathways Accompanying Talk: Wed, 4:00pm, Moscone South 309.

What is a Skill Shortage? Rhetoric is there is a shortage of advanced STEM skills Continued <2% unemployment Acute shortage in technician – MS-level STEM Traditional research levels are full Evidence of specific skill shortages, not just “A Degree in X”

Narrowing the Geoscientist Deficit In 2011, projected 135,000 FTE deficit for US Geoscience, 2022 In 2015, now projected to be 95,000 Why? Record enrollments Cross discipline entries because of hot job market Improvements in technology Changes in labor strategy, especially in energy This is the revised human capital deficit in the US – substantial revision from the enrollment and MS growth, but still a yawning gap to fill. My key point on this slide is that the gap can be filled 3 ways: Growth in the # of geoscientists The economic activity that is expect to generate this growth won't happen because of supply contraint Other professionals will fill the gap -engineers, accountants, etc.

The Downside of STEM Rising Employment prospects of current grads Good students getting good jobs Average SAT/ACT of new majors is dropping significantly Geoscience has historically had the lowest SAT scores of all STEM All of STEM is facing rapid deterioration in aptitude scores Rebasing of the SAT? Popular push and record enrollments are bringing STEM towards the mean

A Need for Upping our Entry? University of Maryland Econ Department says this to prospective majors: “You might keep in mind that, generally speaking, quantitative aptitude is relatively hard for many people to cultivate, and thus it is a relatively scarce attribute. At the same time, empirical skills are very much in demand in today's workforce. As a result, people with strong empirical skills tend to earn higher compensation than people whose aptitudes fall in other areas.”

Field Experiences Still Lacking

Advanced Math is a Problem

Distribution of Jobs For Grads

Change is afoot Storm or Opportunity?

Punctuated Equilibrium of the GeoEconomy Irrational Exuberance Truly Good Times Meh Real Despair Irrational Despair

Machine Learning, Unit Testing, oh my! Can you win a Turning Test in Geoscience? Can your work be boiled down basically to: Pattern recognition Model framework construction Spatial analysis Machine Learning is now bulk and cheap $0.42/hour compute time PLUS $0.0001 per prediction. Unit Testing approaches can handle lots of model input dimensions

“Intellectual” Careers and Automation Risks Creator Class Automation-risk population Advanced Scientists New Graduates Automation-risk population Work-a-day Automation-risk population Techs

Being Discipline Vertical Career Path Formal Education Professional Employment Professionalism – Ethics, Business, etc. Licensure and Regulatory Awareness Applied Skills

Critical Externalities Cultural shift to the “practical arts” Move towards competencies approach ROI metrics for universities New era of departmental closures Evolving labor market The permanent skill shortage? Online programs – fight or flight? Alternative credentials Credit eligible definition

Geo is late to the Game Competency frameworks being used extensively Computer science Financial fields Communications/media fields Engineering Geospatial sciences Desired reporting for modern employers Google Facebook

Moving Towards Competency U.S. NSF funded Summit on the Future of Undergraduate Education Sharon Mosher, Jackson School of Geoscience, University of Texas Follow-on workshops with employers and department heads Community convergence into competency model concept First identification of needed competencies for career success in geoscience

Shift to Online Programs ~5000 majors in pure online programs Lower staff and overhead costs Current traditional program trends are improving online attractiveness Heavy use of flipped classroom (Little face-to-face time) Reduction in field experiences Most effective means to expand student body

The College Scorecard A blunt but effective instrument Ideal for state-level decision making Actual out of pocket costs 6-year completion rate 10-year out average In-State earnings Are you in a weak-sister campus? If so, are you a path to the solution? Does anyone know?

Recent Closures Institutions that fare poorly in the College Scorecard Unable to identify how they strengthened their institution Unable to identify how well they place their graduates in-state Did not know how their department rated in alumni giving