Airport In come and Expenses Forecast Allan Nõmmik

Operating expenses Airfield expenses Airfield maintenance Airfield lighting systems maintenance Service of airport equipment Utilities for the airfield Others (maintenance of fire fighting equipment, airport service roads etc)

Operating expenses Operating and maintenance expenses associated with the terminal include: Buildings and grounds – maintenance and security services Improvements to the land landscaping Loading bridges and gates – maintenance and security services Concession facilities and services Observation facilities - maintenance and security services Passenger, employee, and tenant parking facilities Utilities (electricity, air-.conditioning and heating, and water) Waste disposal – maintenance Other equipment like air-conditioning, heating, baggage handling) - maintenance

Operating expenses Cargo, hangars Building and grounds Improvements to the land and landscaping Access roads - maintenance Employee parking - maintenance Utilities (electricity, air-conditioning and heating, and water) Waste disposal – maintenance

In comes Aviation in comes Landing fees (per MTOW) Security fees Passenger fees Aircraft parking charges Fuel flowage Other in comes Food and beverage concession Travel services and facilities Specialty stores and shops Personal services Amusements Display advertising Outside terminal concessions

Forecasting Aircraft operations, types Passengers ternover, cargo Additionaly: Passengers biheviour Competition between airports and trends Competition on the airlines market and trends

Forecasting of airport Peaking characteristics Types of aircraft General aviation quantity The performance and operating characteritics

Forecasting methods? Qualitative methods Quantitative methods Short-term forecast 5years Medium-term forecast 6- to 10 years Long-term forecast 10 to 20 years multiple scenarios: "pessimistic" scenario, “optimistic” scenario..

Qualitative methods Questionnaires: Management and administration Experts (Delphi method) Different sales personnel Customers

Quantitative methods Time series methods Market share method Ecomentric modeling Simulation modeling All of them needs a historical data but using philosophy and tehnics are different.

Time series method This method is based upon an examination of the historical pattern of activity and assumes that continue to exhibit similar relationships in future. year Passenger’s turnover Area population 1995 1000000 500000 1996 1020100 504700 1997 1109000 510000 1998 1217800 540900 1999 1349700 550000 2000 1427500 560000 2001 1567900 555000

Market share method This meetod has been the dominant technique for aviation demand forecasting . .. This methods are particulary useful in applications in which it can be demostrated that the market share is a regular, stable, or predictible parameter.

Ecomentric modeling Econometrics combines economy and statistics There are a wide range of economic, social, market, and operational factor which affect air transportation. Yest = a0 + a1 X1 + a2 X2 + a3 X3 + …. + an Xn Yest variable which is being forecast X1 , X2 variables being used to explain the variation in dependent variable a0, a1 constants used to calibrate the equation