Hurricane Sandy Follow-up Vulnerability Assessment & Resilience Study 2016 Annual Meeting of the Metropolitan Area Planning (MAP) Forum North Jersey Transportation Planning Authority December 16, 2016 Heather Holsinger FHWA Sustainable Transportation and Resilience Team

Hurricane Sandy Study Background Builds on a FHWA 2011 NJ pilot Learn from experience of 2012 Hurricane Sandy and identify strategies to improve resiliency Research project launched in Fall 2013 SLR 1 Meter, 2100, Coastal Study Area (Roadways). Source NJTPA

Hurricane Sandy Study Partners Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) Federal Transit Administration (FTA) State Departments of Transportation in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut Metropolitan Transportation Authority Port Authority of New York & New Jersey Metropolitan Planning Organizations: New York Metropolitan Transportation Council North Jersey Transportation Planning Authority Western Connecticut Council of Governments Connecticut Metropolitan Council of Governments WCCOG Western Connecticut Council of Governments Consulting Team: Cambridge Systematics AECOM Abt (Stratus Consulting) Office of Radley Horton C2E

Hurricane Sandy Study Objectives Enhance the tri-state region’s resiliency to climate change and extreme weather in the longer term, while informing the ongoing Hurricane Sandy recovery process Identify feasible, cost-effective strategies to reduce and manage extreme weather vulnerabilities amid the uncertainties of a changing climate Advance the state of knowledge and develop methods to assist agencies in the tri-state region—and nationwide—to plan and invest for long-term climate resilience

Key Elements of Work Plan Task 3: Regional, multi-modal damage/disruption assessment based on recent storms Task 4: Asset-level assessments Test engineering-based adaptation assessment process on 10 assets All three state DOTs, PANYNJ, MTA, two counties Task 5: System-level vulnerability and risk assessment Regional vulnerability analysis (primarily exposure) “Mesoscopic” application of vulnerability and risk assessment process; one each in CT, NY, and NJ

Task 3 - Regional Damage and Disruption Assessment Analyzed historical data from recent storm-related damage and disruption Sandy, Irene, Lee, and Storm Alfred (nor’easter) Collected information on existing climate projections Conducted gap analysis of climate data to inform our assessment of future scenarios

Task 4 – Engineering Assessment and Adaptation Analysis for Transportation Assets Test the Engineering-Based Adaptation Assessment Process Provide case studies and detail to process Develop useful adaptation strategies for each asset

Task 4 – Engineering Assessment and Adaptation Analysis for Transportation Assets

10 Transportation Assets Task 4 - Engineering Assessment and Adaptation Analysis for Transportation Assets 10 Transportation Assets 6 in New York, 3 in New Jersey, 1 in Connecticut A mix of bridges, highways, a port, and a railroad track Range of Climate Stressors Covered Sea level Rise and Storm Surge (7 assessments) Extreme Precipitation (2 assessments) Extreme Heat (1 assessment) Range of Adaptation Strategies Proposed Physical modifications (e.g., installation of seawalls) Updating regulatory guidelines (e.g., updates to zero thermal stress temperature, updates to IDF Curve)

Engineering-Based Adaptation Assessments: Example: Loop Parkway Bascule Bridge, NY Source: NYSDOT Rehabilitation of Loop Parkway over Long Creek, 1991 and AECOM, 2014.

Task 5: Regional Transportation System Vulnerability Assessment Work Products GIS input files and outputs of analysis Climate projections Compilation of other reports and resources Intent Provide information and resources so that agencies can conduct their own follow-up analyses Help identify candidates for subareas assessment

Regional Vulnerability Overlays - SLOSH

Regional Vulnerability Overlays – NFHL

Transportation System Criticality # NHS Evacuation Rt. Reg. Freight Reg. People Intermodal Hub 1 l 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

Subarea Selection Criteria Range of geographies and climate impacts One per state Relatively high vulnerability Avoiding duplication of effort Usefulness of results

Subareas Selected Norwalk-Danbury Corridor Long Island South Shore Raritan Bayshore

Task 5: Mesoscopic Analysis of Adaptation Strategies in Vulnerable Subareas Work Products More detailed vulnerability and risk assessment, including benefit-cost analysis of adaptation strategies Intent Demonstrate how a vulnerability and risk assessment process can be performed at a “mesoscopic” level Bridge the gap between system-level analysis and asset-specific assessment

Next Steps Finalize project work products and report (December 2016) Stakeholder Review (December 2016-January 2017) Report release (Target late February 2017)

Hurricane Sandy Study and Beyond FHWA Goal: Mainstream consideration of climate change vulnerability and risk in transportation decision making Hurricane Sandy project is informing our collective understanding on integrating climate resilience at multiple levels Planning Regional Long Range Transportation Plans Corridor Analysis Project Engineering Design Operations and Maintenance Emergency Relief Asset Management Plans

Thank you! For more information: http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/environment/climate_change/adaptation/ongoing_and_current_research/hurricane_sandy My Contact Info: Heather Holsinger Heather.Holsinger@dot.gov