Alternative ways to address growth Chris Stokes

Passenger numbers continue to grow strongly Virgin West Coast (VWC) passenger kms increased by 21% from 2010/11 to 2014/15 Average passenger loadings per train were 192 in 2014/15 (240 on Virgin East Coast) But average VWC load factors are still only 35%

But additional capacity into Euston is not an obvious priority.....

There are practical, affordable ways of increasing capacity on the West Coast Main Line (WCML) Pricing policy Adjusting the train service Longer trains Train configuration Demand management Signalling enhancements Infrastructure enhancements

Pricing policy At the time of initial privatisation, the long distance “saver”fare was regulated, and unrestricted tickets weren’t. This resulted in the structure for walk-on fares being frozen in time, resulting in artificial peaks, before and after the times when off-peak tickets can be used. The heaviest loaded trains from Euston are the first trains for each destination immediately at or after 1900. In contrast, Virgin services in the “peak period” are often poorly loaded (eg 41% loading for the 1840 Euston – Manchester) A more rational pricing structure would smooth peaks, without increasing average fares.

Train service pattern Train loadings can be equalised by fine tuning stopping patterns Significant additional evening peak capacity can be provided from Euston to Milton Keynes at no cost - at present 6 VWC trains stop to pick up only, even though the services involved have an average loading of less than 50%. This restriction is unique to the WCML; InterCity trains carry commuters to Reading, Luton, Bedford and Peterborough.

Longer trains Longer trains are almost always the most cost effective way of increasing rail capacity (passenger and freight) VWC trains are currently either 9 or 11 cars – lengths could be increased to 12 cars (11 for Liverpool) Euston commuter services are a mix of 8 and 12 car trains – could all be increased to 12 cars Birmingham, Manchester commuter trains could be increased from 3/4 cars to 8 (and HS2 does nothing for Manchester commuter capacity) Some expenditure would be required to lengthen depots and platforms – but at a tiny fraction of the cost of HS2

Train configuration Current 9 car trains are 3 first/6 standard, with 468 seats Current 11 car trains are 4 first/7 standard, with 589 seats. 12 car trains could be 3 first/9 standard, with 693 seats – an increase of 48% on the existing 9 car sets

Demand management Modern IT will allow introduction of instant seat reservations, with fully reservable trains – and maintain rail’s advantage as a walk-on mode. Together with a rational fares structure, this will deliver peak smoothing, and generate increased revenue This can be achieved years before HS2 opens “Reserve your seat as you walk across Euston concourse”

Signalling Enhancements Network Rail are claiming that “moving block” signalling and modern control systems can increase line capacity by up to 40% This is unrealistic: existing signalling provides 80 – 90 second headways on the WCML, but capacity is constrained by terminals, junctions, station stops and differential speeds eg 125 mph non-stop vs 30 mph average speeds of stopping trains on some sections. But with state of the art signalling, WCML peak capacity can be increased by, say, 2 trains an hour in each direction

Infrastructure Enhancements Rail routes do not have uniform capacity, nor single points where capacity is constrained. WCML capacity can be increased by, for example: Grade separation at Ledburn Junction, south of Milton Keynes Provision of a second northbound track between Brinklow and Nuneaton Provision of “dynamic loops” between Coventry and Birmingham Grade separation at Colwich, south of Stafford

Shouldn’t these actions be properly considered before committing to a £55bn project?