Current Feed Situation and Outlook Iowa Egg Industry Symposium Ames, Iowa Nov. 5, 2014 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1

U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Area Planted (mil. acres) 88.2 91.9 97.2 95.4 90.9 Yield (bu./acre) 152.8 147.2 123.4 158.8 174.2 Production (mil. bu.) 12,447 12,360 10,780 13,925 14,475 Beg. Stocks 1,708 1,128 989 821 1,236 Imports 28 29 162 36 25 Total Supply 14,182 13,517 11,932 14,782 15,736 Feed & Residual 4,795 4,557 4,329 5,125 5,375 Ethanol 5,019 5,000 4,648 5,130 Food, Seed, & Other 1,407 1,428 1,403 1,374 1,405 Exports 1,834 1,543 731 1,917 1,750 Total Use 13,055 12,528 11,111 13,546 13,655 Ending Stocks 2,081 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 5.18 6.22 6.89 4.46 3.40 Source: USDA-WAOB, with adjustments for stocks 2 2

U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Area Planted (mil. acres) 77.4 75.0 77.2 76.8 84.2 Yield (bu./acre) 43.5 41.9 39.8 44.0 47.1 Production (mil. bu.) 3,329 3,094 3,034 3,358 3,927 Beg. Stocks 151 215 169 141 92 Imports 14 16 36 72 15 Total Supply 3,495 3,325 3,239 3,570 4,034 Crush 1,648 1,703 1,689 1,734 1,770 Seed & Residual 130 88 90 98 113 Exports 1,501 1,365 1,320 1,647 1,700 Total Use 3,280 3,155 3,099 3,478 3,583 Ending Stocks 450 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 11.30 12.50 14.40 13.00 10.00 Source: USDA-WAOB, with adjustments for stocks 3 3

U.S. Soybean Meal Supply and Use 2011 2012 2013 2014 Production (thou. short tons) 41,025 39,875 40,975 42,035 Beg. Stocks 350 300 275 Imports 216 245 165 Total Supply 41,591 40,420 41,600 42,500 Domestic 31,550 28,969 29,700 30,200 Exports 9,741 11,176 11,600 12,000 Total Use 41,291 40,145 41,300 42,200 Ending Stocks Season-Average Price ($/short ton) 393.53 468.11 490.00 350.00 Source: USDA-WAOB 4 4

U.S. DDG Supply and Use 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Production (mil. metric tons) 38.7 38.6 35.9 39.5 Imports 0.4 0.5 Total Supply 39.1 39.0 36.3 40.0 Domestic 30.9 31.4 28.1 27.5 Exports 8.3 7.5 8.2 12.5 Total Use 39.2 38.9 Average Price ($/ton) 188 222 257 205 161 My estimates, so take with a grain (or pound) of salt 5 5

Projected Corn Yields Top: 2014 Yield Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bu/acre Source: USDA-NASS

Projected Soybean Yields Top: 2014 Yield Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bu/acre Source: USDA-NASS

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 8 8

World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB 9 9

U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10

Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Soy Meal Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

DDG Exports Source: USDA

Corn Grind for Ethanol

Current Corn Futures 3.80 3.47 Source: CME Group, 10/22/2014

Current Soybean Futures 9.51 9.41 Source: CME Group, 10/22/2014

Current Soybean Meal Futures Source: CME Group, 10/22/2014

Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/