Eric Kaufmann, Birkbeck College, University of London Can Narratives of National Identity reduce support for Hard Brexit and Trump? A survey experiment Eric Kaufmann, Birkbeck College, University of London Twitter: @epkaufm

Open and Closed Ethnic Groups Ethnic boundaries may be tight or ‘loose’, depending on whether group open to assimilating outsiders (Barth 1969; Wimmer 2008: 984) Tight: North India, Northern Ireland, Japan Loose: Turkey, Caribbean, sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America (colour line), North America (among whites) Liberal v Illiberal ethnic groups (Kaufmann 2000) Majority ethnic groups in nation-states embody open/closed approach

Ethnic Groups: Continuity and Change Ethnicity as ‘process’ (Brubaker 2006) Ethnic groups felt as discrete entities

Immigration Attitudes in Survey Experiments “Strong attitudes often lead to motivated reasoning where individuals avoid, ignore, or reject information that is inconsistent with their prior opinions…Most past work on over-time political communication focuses on low-salience issues” (Druckman and Leeper 2012: 877, 888) Very difficult to shift restrictionist immigration attitudes in liberal direction (Hopkins 2016)

Cultural more than materialist motivation Economic threat theory (Olzak 1992) or social identity theory (i.e. Tajfel 1981)? Identity motivations more important than material considerations for immigration attitudes (Sniderman et. al. 2004; Mudde 2007; Hainmueller and Hopkins 2014) Policy: Material palliatives unlikely to address underlying anxieties, i.e. “Jeremy Corbyn’s push for a Migration Impact Fund to address the pressures placed on public services by immigration…will not address all public concerns on the issue.” – Progress Online, Sept. 30, 2016

Data and Method Two YouGov surveys, fielded Aug, 20, 2016 N=1968 US; 1677 UK: N=1418 Whites in US, N=1485 White British in UK DV = a) Immigration attitude; b) Immigration salience; c) Hard Brexit/Trump support IVs = (Vignettes/Primes) = 1) Diversity prime (ethnic change, majority group declining); 2) Assimilation prime (despite migration, majority group endures); 3) Control group IVs = Also questions on authoritarianism, conservatism, past vote, demographics. For US: ideology, two big 5 personality traits.

Difference between conservatism and authoritarianism (Stenner 2005) Conservative: 'Things in America/Britain were better in the past.‘ Authoritarian: ‘Please tell me which one you think is more important for a child: 1- To be considerate 2- To be well-behaved’

Trump & Brexit: it’s NOT the economy, stupid 25 points 2 scale points Income not statistically significant in either graph. Controls for age, education, gender. Std. errors clustered on US State or UK Local Authority.

Hypotheses H1: Differentiation: Change narrative will heighten threat for conservative/authoritarian members of majority groups; Continuity narrative will reduce threat for conservatives/authoritarians H2: Polarization: Motivated reasoning. Narratives will not affect, or will merely reinforce, pre-existing positions

Age, education, gender control. Errors clustered on state.

Diversity Prime Assimilation Prime Britain is changing, becoming increasingly diverse. The 2011 census shows that White British people are already a minority in four British cities, including London. Over a quarter of births in England and Wales are to foreign- born mothers. Young Britons are also much more diverse than older Britons. Just 4.5% of those older than 65 are nonwhite but more than 20% of those under 25 are. Minorities' younger average age, somewhat higher birth rate and continued immigration mean that late this century, according to Professor David Coleman of Oxford University, White British people will be in the minority nationwide. We should embrace our diversity, which gives Britain an advantage in the global economy. Together, we can build a stronger, more inclusive Britain. Immigration has risen and fallen over time, but, like the English language, Britain's culture is only superficially affected by foreign influence. According to Professor Eric Kaufmann of the University of London, a large share of the children of European immigrants have become White British. Historians tell us that French, Irish, Jews and pre-war black immigrants largely melted into the white majority. Those of mixed race, who share common ancestors with White British people, are growing faster than all minority groups and 8 in 10 of them marry whites. In the long run, today's minorities will be absorbed into the majority and foreign identities will fade, as they have for public figures with immigrant ancestors like Boris Johnson or Peter Mandelson. Britain shapes its migrants, migration doesn't shape Britain.

UK: Hard or Soft Brexit?

.25 .15

UK Summary: Differentiation between primes Assimilation prime significantly softens immigration attitudes from reduce to stay the same. Prime affects left voters/liberals more than conservatives Assimilation prime significantly softens Hard Brexit attitudes (trading off material benefits to cut EU migration) among UKIP voters and working-class respondents. Also for conservatives and authoritarians. Modest effect, short of significance, on Leave voters. Much smaller effect on liberals Diversity prime has modest but n.s. effect on raising salience of immigration, especially among working-class. Modestly increases opposition to immigration, little impact on salience

Diversity Prime Assimilation Prime America is changing, becoming increasingly diverse. In 2014, for the first time in the nation’s history, more minority babies were born than white babies. Whites are a minority in 22 of the top 100 US metro areas as well as four states, including the two largest, Texas and California. The Census Bureau projects that in 25 years non-Hispanic whites will be a minority in America. We should embrace our diversity, which gives America an advantage in the global economy. Together, we can build a stronger, more inclusive America. Immigration has risen and fallen over time, but, like the English language, America’s culture is only superficially affected by foreign influence. According to Professor Richard Alba of the State University of New York at Albany, brisk intermarriage between Hispanics and whites, and the fact their children assimilate into the English-speaking traditions of America, mean the share of Americans with European ancestry is likely to grow, not decline. Like the Irish and Italians a century ago, Hispanic and Asian immigrants are assimilating. Now as in the past, immigrant minorities will be absorbed into the majority and foreign identities will fade, as they have for public figures with Latino ancestors such as Ted Williams or Cameron Diaz. America shapes its immigrants, immigration doesn't shape America.

Also significant effects (at p<. 05 or p< Also significant effects (at p<.05 or p<.1) for authoritarianism, right-wing ideology, strong Republican party identity, low openness

US Summary: Polarization by values No significant difference in effects between diversity and assimilation primes Primes have disparate effects on liberals and conservatives Primes increase salience of immigration issue for conservatives Primes lower Trump ratings for libertarians and pro-immigration republicans Modest liberal effect on immigration attitudes for libertarians

Why no differentiation between primes for anti-immigration Americans? Assimilation argument not new? Perceived undocumented nature of US immigration? Latinos as less assimilable than Europeans in UK? Latino welfare dependency or jobs? (but DVs no link with income) Suggests motivated reasoning and polarization for US, possibility for centre ground in UK

Why no rise in salience of immigration in UK? US Whites Reduce immigration a lot: 45%; same or increase: 41 % Immigration top issue: 10%; among those saying reduce a lot: 21% UK White British Reduce immigration a lot: 44%; same or increase: 31% Immigration top issue: 20%; among those saying reduce a lot: 42.5%

UK Differentiation v US Polarization. Why? US Whites Well-behaved: 42.6%; Considerate: 57.4% Better in the past: 58.9%; No: 20.9% Reduce immigration a lot: 45%; reduce total: 59%; same: 28%; increase: 13% Immigration top issue: 10%; among those saying reduce a lot: 21% UK White British Well-behaved: 37.2%; Considerate: 62.8% Better in the past: 38.8%; No: 28.3% Reduce immigration a lot: 44%; reduce total: 69.5%; same: 23%; increase: 7.5% Immigration top issue: 20%; among those saying reduce a lot: 42.5%

Policy Implications UK: Left and soft Brexit Tories should shift from diversity to assimilation narrative. UKIP and hard Brexit Tories should keep diversity threat front and centre. US: Left and Centre should stay silent about immigration on national stage, pro-immigration message for their partisans only. Trump – flag the issue among partisans only. Western Europe?: mainstream parties may need to shift from diversity to assimilation narrative. Further research needed. Risk: Left/Centre needs a reassuring narrative for ethnic majority, but without alienating ethnic minorities