Devolution in England Tony Travers LSE

Devolution in England Kilbrandon Report Labour’s post-1997 proposals killed off by the 2004 North East referendum City regions Metropolitan counties (1974 to 1986) GLC (1965 to 1986) then GLA (Mayor and Assembly) Post-abolition AGMA Combined authorities at end of Labour government Greater Manchester Agreement (2014) Cities and Local Government Devolution Bill [HL]

Source: Institute For Government

Scotland and Wales Since 1999 there has been significant devolution to Scotland and Wales The Edinburgh Parliament and Cardiff Assembly are, effectively, permanent Despite the lack of constitutional protection Evidence of a loss of sovereignty by Westminster At least until Brexit… Radical fiscal devolution now in preparation Weakens Treasury’s position re other parts of UK England left as a single, centralised unit Unique compared to other major countries Suggests that national politicians believe sub-national political capacity is incapable of government

England Relatively fewer MPs than Scotland or Wales Total Per head Northern Ireland 18 101,600 Despite the existence of legislative powers in Scotland, Wales and NI Challenge of ‘English votes’ issue….

England and the Union Is under-representation in Parliament, no devolved government and lower public expenditure simply the price the English must pay to keep the Union together? This has long been the case, though devolution to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland has affected perceptions Certainly, ‘England’ cannot assert itself much within the Union Any radical England positioning by English MPs would undermine the UK government and the position of the other three nations But could it be allowed some measure of devolution? Beyond London

City regional mayors - a short history London’s mayor (elected in 2000) was partly a replacement for the GLC, partly co-incident with devolution to Scotland, Wales Non ‘city regional’ mayors introduced elsewhere in England Regional policy for the rest of England doomed after 2004 North East referendum No 78% Yes 22% ‘City regions’ as a policy started towards the end of the Blair-Brown government

City regional mayors - a short history Cameron/Osborne built on the previous government’s policy Separately, Greater Manchester had been developing its own ‘city regional’ economic and policy mechanism Osborne adopted this and evolved the ‘Northern Powerhouse’ City-regional mayors made a condition of greater devolution to combined authorities Legislation to allow ad hoc, ‘bespoke’ (random?) change

Where does this take us? Could lead to radical devolution to GM and other ‘city regions’? Legislation allows wide differences from city to city skills, planning, housing, transport, NHS Also counties, but not London except by its own new deals Or, to very little change? There is still huge resistance to fiscal devolution in England London Finance Commission 1 Little movement so far Areas seen by HMT as ‘too rich’ or ‘too poor’ to sustain fiscal devolution

Sub-national tax-raising

City regional spending and taxation Source: London Finance Commission

The potential impact of devolved taxes

International comparisons

Implied government concern re devolution and related policies Mentions of devolutionary concepts in UK Budget documents Devolution Northern Powerhouse Mayor March 2013 1 March 2014 March 2015 19 10 7 Summer 2015 25 9 12 March 2016 49 24 March 2017 8

Devolution, city-regions and mayors This policy has almost certainly been ‘paused’ No evidence of much ministerial concern with moving further towards a more comprehensive form of ‘English devolution’ ‘Northern Powerhouse’ and ‘Midlands Engine’ policies cover areas significantly wider than city-regions Policy has settled, for the time being on: Delivering the May 2017 elected mayors/combined authorities 2018 mayoral elections in Sheffield Possible ‘North of Tyne’ combined authority with mayor Greater Lincolnshire not progressing

Implications from London Turnouts can vary, but are generally above those of local government 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 34.4 36.9 45.3 38.1 With no district elections in metropolitan areas this year, the mayoral contest will be the only one – except in Cambridgeshire

Being mayor can make you very popular

The geo-politics of the EU referendum vote: does this make a difference? - UK, nations and regions Source: Science 2.0

London: city state… - might this happen in other city regions? The ‘single constituency’ for the mayor appears to have generated a more powerful civic identity for London Reinforced by the 2016 referendum vote But not quite enough (yet) to give London sufficient power to deliver Scotland or Wales-style devolution Might the new collective of city mayors become a lobby for ‘English devolution’? Issue probably now tied up in the future of the Union, the challenge of financing the State and other ‘external’ factors…

Devolution in England Tony Travers LSE