Higher Education - many pathways Margaret Farragher, Head of Policy and Qualifications m.farragher@ucas.ac.uk

Themes Widening participation Qualification reform Apprenticeships

2016 Cycle – The story so far Headlines 10/12/2017 2016 Cycle – The story so far Headlines Slight slowing of demand Record numbers of applicants enter HE Difference in entry rate between men and women is larger than ever before Further increase in the number of disadvantaged learners entering HE, but progress slows Majority of growth driven by BTEC learners to middle Tariff institutions

Applications: Scotland and Wales 33% 2016 numbers… Applications: Scotland and Wales 33% 48% Northern Ireland 37% England Acceptances: 522,000

Flat UK demand…but an uplift from the EU EU (excl. UK) up 6% International down 2% first fall.

Population is set to fall by 80,000 by 2020 Falling UK 18 year old population Population is set to fall by 80,000 by 2020

WP as a political priority ‘We have made strong progress to open up access to higher education but I’m still concerned about low participation rates for disadvantaged white boys and we must do more to raise outcomes for those from black and minority ethnic communities’ Universities Minister Jo Johnson MP

What is the WP challenge? Key objectives of the government’s National Strategy for WP: Raising levels of attainment at Level 3 amongst disadvantaged and under-represented groups Encouraging more learners from disadvantaged and under-represented groups to apply to HE Supporting effective transition to HE and successful completion of the course of study and progression to graduate employment or postgraduate education

45.9% of most advantaged population Slowing progress towards widening participation 45.9% of most advantaged population 18.6% of least advantaged population Vs

UCAS Through the student lens report Disadvantaged concerned about practicalities More advantaged concerned about growing a network Those knowing by age 10 are 2.6 x more likely to be placed in high tariff Cost and logistics are barriers to open days Lack of grade transparency causes confusion Findings Be clear about actual entry requirements Give information about the cost of living and study Open days − consider timing, structure and funding Explain link between subjects and career paths Actions

The qualification landscape Decoupled AS – England New Core Maths – England New Nationals – Scotland New A levels – England, Wales and NI New Highers – Scotland Science practical grades – England VQ reform – England New Welsh Bacc – Wales Coupled AS – Wales and NI New GCSEs – England, Wales and NI

74% schools in England continuing to offer AS Response to qualifications reform 74% schools in England continuing to offer AS “Insufficient information about course content and structure is provided and it is difficult for colleagues to plan when the information is being drip fed as the course progresses.”

10/12/2017 GCSE reform 9-1 A- G Wales 9-1 and A- C*- G

Vocational reform underway Overhaul in England 91% of Level 3 qualifications that previously counted towards performances tables removed from 2016 Classification Applied General –support from three universities Tech Level –recognised by a professional body or five+ employers Criteria External assessment: Applied General – 40% Tech Level – 30% …and synoptic assessment Vocational reform underway

Technical Education Pathways to come… ‘Our recommendations call for a fundamental shift. This is a chance to systematically reform technical education for the long term; ensuring individuals can develop the technical knowledge and skills that industry needs through their education and training’ (Independent Panel on Technical Education, April 2016)

UK 18 year old acceptances by qualification group − 2008 vs. 2015 70% A levels 64% 19% BTECS, BTECs taken with A levels 9%

19 year olds holding Level 3 DfE data 2010-2014, extrapolated to 2020 and relative to 2014 value This data uses the UCAS interpretation of the population of 19 year olds domiciled in England and applies the proportion of those achieving various level 3 qualifications sourced from Table 3 of DfE’s SFR_11-2015 “Level 2 and 3 attainment by young people in England measured using matched administrative data: Attainment by age 19 in 2014” (https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/418381/SFR_11-2015.pdf). For the extrapolation from 2014 it is assumed that the growth of proportion of English 19 year olds holding Vocational qualifications is 1 percentage point a year and proportion taking A levels remains constant (38.5%). Vocational >20% growth Table 3: Percentage of 19 year olds qualified to Level 3, by qualification type and cohort Coverage: England Cohort (19 in…) Number in cohort (Not used in UCAS extrap) Qualification Type attained Number with a Level 3 by age 19** Percentage achieving a Level 3 by age 19** A-Levels, Applied A levels AS Levels Advanced Apprenticeship* Vocational qualification outside of Apprenticeship International Baccalaureate 2004 614,564 37.1 1.5 0.5 3.0 0.0 259,312 42.2 2005 618,397 37.0 0.7 6.4 282,332 45.7 2006 633,117 36.4 1.0 7.7 0.2 296,841 46.9 2007 653,657 35.9 1.6 9.4 0.3 314,956 48.2 2008 647,457 35.2 1.1 11.4 321,506 49.7 2009 658,408 35.7 1.7 1.2 12.5 338,402 51.4 2010 665,139 36.0 14.3 358,357 53.9 2011 661,689 37.2 15.3 374,197 56.6 2012 640,619 37.7 1.9 16.0 0.6 371,302 58.0 2013 640,930 38.0 16.9 378,916 59.1 2014 626,238 38.5 1.4 17.7 375,164 59.9 * The Apprenticeship figures include those achieving a full level 3 qualification while on an apprenticeship framework (not necessarily completing the framework) and may also include some cases where qualifications have been achieved on other Work Base Learning/Employer Responsive routes ** Includes a small number of individuals achieving via a combination of qualifications. Due to this and independent rounding the sum of the different qualification types may not equal the total achieving L3 by 19 These qualification type figures are based on the qualifications held at 19 prioritised in the following order, A levels, IB, AS levels, Advanced Apprenticeship, Vocational Qualification outside of apprenticeship, rather than strictly the first qualification achieved that meets the level 3 threshold. Combined similar to 2014 A levels decreasing

What does this mean? Non A level learners drive growth and high grade A level learners in demand Fewer have high grade A levels Fewer have A levels Fewer 18 (and 19) year olds available to recruit % of those with ≥ 3 predicted grades: Year ≥ 3 predicted grades Predicted ABB Achieved ABB %Predicted %Achieved 2010 163,090 86,780 66,580 53.2% 40.8% 2011 162,865 90,510 67,810 55.6% 41.6% 2012 155,795 91,530 65,910 58.8% 42.3% 2013 155,280 94,430 65,350 60.8% 42.1% 2014 153,830 95,130 63,260 61.8% 41.1% 2015 157,715 98,750 63,490 62.6% 40.3%

10/12/2017 Progression Pathways

10/12/2017 Progression Pathways

UCAS and Apprenticeships UCAS has supported Apprenticeships as follows: Search services – UCAS Progress displays Intermediate and Advanced level Apprenticeships. Admissions services – Learners can apply directly to the training provider or via UCAS Progress - 10,000 applications in 2016 Information and advice services – We provide information and advice about academic and vocational pathways New Higher and Degree Apprenticeship course display service

Apprenticeship I&A

Higher and Degree Apprenticeships via UCAS

Presenting the Higher and Degree Apprenticeship offer to young people What are they? How get on one? How ensure success?

How can we continue supporting you?

Questions? Margaret Farragher Head of Policy and Qualifications  01242 543 765  m.farragher@ucas.ac.uk