Daniel Tong NOAA Air Resources Lab & George Mason University

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Presentation transcript:

Daniel Tong NOAA Air Resources Lab & George Mason University Rapid Update of Anthropogenic NOx Emissions with Fused Satellite and Ground Observations (Photo credit: action.earthday.net) Daniel Tong NOAA Air Resources Lab & George Mason University Li Pan1,2, Lok Lamsal3, Pius Lee1, Youhua Tang1,3, Hyuncheol Kim1,2, Jeffrey McQueen1, Jianping Huang1, Hochun Huang1, Shobha Kondragunta1, and Ivanka Stajner1 1 – NOAA; 2 – UMD; 3 - NASA January 9, 2017 The 8th IWAQFR, Toronto, Ontario

The 8th IWAQFR, Toronto, Ontario Emission Modeling Air Quality Forecast Meteorology Forecast Emission Forecast Real World Emissions Model-ready Emission Emission Inventories The 8th IWAQFR, Toronto, Ontario

How to overcome this problem? Emission for Air Quality Forecasting Time lag is a major obstacle for AQF. Forecasters want: emissions for tomorrow; Data availability: emission data 4+ years old. How to overcome this problem? NAQFC Practices: Option 1, no update (2007-2011); Option 2, use EPA projection (2012-2016). Option 3, emission data assimilation. The 8th IWAQFR, Toronto, Ontario

NAQFC Ozone Forecast 2009: NEI Only Peak 8h Ozone (ppb) 2012: (NEI: National Emission Inventory) Peak 8h Ozone (ppb) 2012: NEI with Projection (Tong et al., 2015) The 8th IWAQFR, Toronto, Ontario

The 2008 Global Economic Recession Cause: Housing bubble in 2007 followed by a subprime mortgage crisis in 2008; NO2 Changes from OMI 2005 2012 Impacts: - Unemployment rate: 10.1% in 2009. - Poverty rate: 16%; - GDP: contract by 5.1%; Worst economic recession since the Great Depression Difference Question: Was the change reflected in NAQFC emissions? The 8th IWAQFR, Toronto, Ontario

NOx Trends from OMI, AQS and NAQFC Atlanta Philadelphia Comparison to 2005 values OMI = Ozone Monitoring Instrument on NASA’s Aura Satellite AQS = Air Quality System OMI (Space) AQS (Ground) NAQFC (Model) Philadelphia Atlanta The 8th IWAQFR, Toronto, Ontario

NOx Trends during the Great Recession Consistent trends from OMI and AQS; Faster NOx reduction during the Recession and slower after that. (Tong et al., 2015) The 8th IWAQFR, Toronto, Ontario

Recession Impact on Surface Ozone To what extent has the 2008 economic recession affected US air quality? 2011 Meteorology; NOAA NAQFC testbed (revised CMAQ 4.7). The 8th IWAQFR, Toronto, Ontario

“Recession” Emissions Use fused satellite (OMI) and ground (AQS) data to obtain realistic emission changes Fusing AQS & OMI State-level Changing Factors Comparison of OMI and AQS (x100) Samples (Source: Tong et al., 2015) (2005 to 2012) 9 The 8th IWAQFR, Toronto, Ontario

O3 Changes with/without Recession (2005 – 2011) (Tong et al., 2015) The 8th IWAQFR, Toronto, Ontario

Will more “realistic” emissions produce better O3 prediction? Comparison between model and observations BAU – Emission projection Recession – Emission adjusted with fused obs. The 8th IWAQFR, Toronto, Ontario

Research to Operation with NOAA NAQFC An Experiment in Summer 2016 Can the observation-based emission adjustment be used to improve real-time forecasting? NAQFC Setup: CMAQ 5.0.2, NEI 2011, NAM; NO2 observations: AQS, GOME2, OMI (2011 – 2014); Same emission adjustment algorithm; Period: July – August 2016; Evaluation conducted by early-adopter users; The 8th IWAQFR, Toronto, Ontario

Peak 8h O3: Experimental vs Operational Difference in Peak 8h O3 (Courtesy: Joel Dreessen, Maryland Dept. of Env.) The 8th IWAQFR, Toronto, Ontario

O3 Forecast Over Maryland (Courtesy: Joel Dreessen, Maryland Dept. of Env.) The 8th IWAQFR, Toronto, Ontario

O3 Forecast Over New England (Courtesy: Michael Geigert, Connecticut DEEP) The 8th IWAQFR, Toronto, Ontario

The 8th IWAQFR, Toronto, Ontario Summary Development of emission data assimilation capability; Impact of socioeconomic events on air quality; Initial application to NAQFC showing promises; More challenging to forecast peak ozone with decreased emissions in North America ; Reference: Tong, D., L. Pan, W. Chen, L. Lamsal, P. Lee, Y. Tang, H. Kim, S. Kondragunta, I. Stajner, 2016. Impact of the 2008 Global Recession on air quality over the United States: Implications for surface ozone levels from changes in NOx emissions. Geophys. Res. Let., 43(17), 9280-9288. Tong, D., L. Lamsal, L. Pan, C. Ding, H. Kim, P. Lee, T. Chai, and K.E. Pickering, and I. Stajner, 2014. Long-term NOx trends over large cities in the United States during the 2008 Recession: Intercomparison of satellite retrievals, ground observations, and emission inventories, Atmos. Environ., 107, 70-84. The 8th IWAQFR, Toronto, Ontario

ARL Science Review, June 21-23, 2016 Acknowledgment NOAA National Air Quality Forecast Capability. Funding support from NOAA Weather and Air Quality Program and NASA Health and Air Quality Applied Science Team. Data producers of AQS, OMI and GOME2 NO2 products. ARL Science Review, June 21-23, 2016