Celina Independent School District New 2017-18 Boundary Review

Economic Conditions- Dallas-Fort Worth MSA Unemployment Rate OCTOBER 2016 4.4% 3.4% Texas Collin County 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% USA DFW 4.7% 3.6% 1.7% Annual Job Growth Rate OCTOBER 2016 USA 3.3% DFW Texas 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% Source: Texas Workforce Commission

Celina ISD Home Sales January – October 2016 Sales by Transaction Type The district has had 372 home sales in 2016, and roughly 22% were of new homes The average sale price in 2016 for a new home is $345,203 The average sale price in 2016 for an existing home is $365,536 Source: Metrostudy and Collin County Deed Transactions

DFW New Home Ranking Report ISD Ranked by Annual Closings – 3Q16 Rank District Name Annual Starts Annual Closings VDL Future 1 Frisco ISD 2,755 2,597 3,637 7,828 2 Denton ISD 2,055 1,977 2,400 17,000 3 Prosper ISD 2,417 1,814 4,227 28,278 4 Lewisville ISD 1,358 1,295 1,637 3,849 5 Northwest ISD 1,464 1,247 2,112 20,991 6 Little Elm ISD 1,044 1,204 1,381 4,817 7 Dallas ISD 1,361 1,154 2,484 6,010 8 Eagle Mt.-Saginaw ISD 850 906 783 20,462 9 Keller ISD 772 844 931 1,881 10 Rockwall ISD 965 721 1,949 8,143 11 Mansfield ISD 765 674 1,054 6,324 12 Crowley ISD 769 666 612 9,392 13 McKinney ISD 784 625 1,683 5,701 14 Wylie ISD 733 606 889 4,769 15 Forney ISD 611 578 818 14,601 16 Allen ISD 580 497 1,104 1,529 17 Coppell ISD 482 469 728 355 18 Burleson ISD 426 466 564 3,188 19 Plano ISD 476 453 970 2,775 20 Waxahachie ISD 467 435 661 10,064 Added: Dynavest (11,000 futures); Old Celina LTD (1,250 futures); Kirk Ranch (5,362 futures); Homestead at Ownsby Farms (400 futures) ; Collins Celina (1,950 futures); 1,652 futures to Green Meadows; 42 Everman ISD 111 150 254 4,542 43 Celina ISD 134 147 367 31,621* 44 Lancaster ISD 222 145 286 3,219 * Based on additional research by TD staff Source: Metrostudy

New Housing Activity Celina ISD Starts 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016   Closings 1Q 20 10 16 31 39 37 21 23 33 28 2Q 18 25 77 54 15 53 34 3Q 22 45 26 62 4Q 17 60 51 12 38 59 Total 76 69 73 196 189 83 66 135 207 88 Celina ISD is on pace to start more than 100 homes in 2016 The district has closed 88 new homes in the first 3 quarters of 2016, down from the same period in 2015 Celina ISD currently has a healthy 6.0 month’s supply of new homes Source: Metrostudy

District Housing Overview Over 130 Annual Starts Almost 150 Annual Closings About 50 homes UC More than 350 VDL More than 30,000 future lots in various stages of development Future Subdivision Active Subdivision

Ten Year Forecast By Grade Level Year (Oct) EE PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Total Growth % Growth 2012/13 5 53 120 149 146 156 152 143 164 167 173 174 144 140 2,035   2013/14 10 35 169 138 148 159 154 170 186 165 145 134 2,075 40 2.0% 2014/15 38 150 155 176 166 171 182 180 147 2,201 126 6.1% 2015/16 9 47 183 157 175 181 190 185 2,353 6.9% 2016/17 8 32 200 178 163 179 192 203 195 160 2,378 25 1.1% 2017/18 212 188 189 193 204 207 201 158 2,480 102 4.3% 2018/19 205 248 197 172 208 226 2,661 7.3% 2019/20 251 233 246 258 209 213 217 236 196 2,894 8.8% 2020/21 289 301 280 256 273 230 244 234 219 3,188 294 10.2% 2021/22 347 332 331 300 238 229 242 214 3,522 334 10.5% 2022/23 399 409 382 345 312 310 224 276 227 221 3,935 413 11.7% 2023/24 423 469 450 405 348 343 311 335 271 252 274 220 4,370 435 11.1% 2024/25 465 499 525 464 415 383 355 336 305 250 265 215 4,872 502 11.5% 2025/26 530 548 584 536 478 457 396 356 400 303 259 5,512 640 13.1% 2026/27 557 625 603 605 549 526 473 427 406 401 397 293 237 6,139 627 11.4% *Yellow box = largest grade per year *Green box = second largest grade per year Celina ISD may enroll more than 2,600 students by 2018, and more than 3,000 by 2020 5 year growth = 1,144 students 2021/22 enrollment = 3,522 10 year growth = 3,761 students 2026/27 enrollment = 6,139

New Boundary Criteria Attendance areas should be largely contiguous and create clear divisions of boundaries such as highways, subdivisions, bodies of water and natural land marks Neighborhoods should be assigned to the same school Transportation routes should be as efficient as possible, giving consideration to minimal ride times within established boundaries Attendance zone plans should be designed to serve the district 3 to 5 years without additional boundary changes Allow for initially smaller school populations in schools with higher than anticipated growth rates Least amount of moved student

New Boundary Map Least amount of moved student

New Boundary Projections Complete new elementary campus East of Carter Ranch Convert Celina Intermediate in to an early childhood center for all EE-K New elementary campus and current Celina Elementary will house 1st – 5th graders Celina MS becomes 6th grade center Celina JH and HS remain at current configuration Least amount of moved student