Presidential Nomination (Delegates)

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Presentation transcript:

Presidential Nomination (Delegates) Number of Delegates Needed Democrats (2,025 of 4,049) Republicans (1,191 of 2,381)

Role of National Parties: -- Whether delegates are selected by a “winner- take-all” or a “proportional representation” system -- Determine how many delegates each state party will be given (for candidates to then earn): (i) Primary basis is how populated the state is (ii) Less important is how that state has voted for the party’s previous presidential candidate (e.g., Texas Democrats will get fewer delegates because Obama lost to McCain & Romney in Texas in 2008/2012)

Role of State Parties as ratified by the State Legislatures: -- Determine if primary or caucus -- Determine if primary/caucus is open, closed, or semi-closed -- Determine Date or Dates of primary or caucus (except first four states) -- “Front-loading” may occur here

How Delegates are acquired: -- Republican Party -- Democratic Party (i) Primaries (i) Primaries (most common method for both parties) (ii) Caucuses (ii) Caucuses (iii) Super Delegates (iii) Super Delegates (but very few)

Super Delegates- How are these individuals selected and why does the Democratic Party use them more so than the Republican Party?

Presidential Nomination Process Stage 1: Pre-Primary Positioning Stage -- Preparing the Candidate -- Assemble the Campaign Team (Critical Role: Campaign Manager) -- Establish campaign organizations in key primary/caucus states -- Raise Money -- Collect Endorsements -- Build Name Recognition

Stage 2: Iowa and New Hampshire – Narrowing the Field (but don’t forget “South Carolina” and “Nevada”!) -- Hugely important because they’re “first” -- If expectations are not met for second- tier candidates, they usually quit -- For top tier candidates, meeting/exceeding expectations is virtually a must (In 2012, Santorum wins Iowa, Romney wins New Hampshire, Gingrich wins in South Carolina)

Stage 3: Super Tuesday (Early March this year) -- Because so many states involved, candidates must by now have high name ID and lots of money to compete successfully (which could be helped by good results from earlier primaries/caucuses) -- Usually, the race is over after early March (True for the Republicans in 2008, but not the Democrats in 2008 or the Republicans in 2012)

Stage 4: The Post Super Tuesday Contests (Early March-July) - Usually not important unless race is very close If relevant, organization and money are very important predictors as to who wins these (Obama vs. Hillary in ‘08)

Stage 5: The Transition -- From March to August, the two presumptive presidential nominees usually start to emphasize “general election” themes (e.g., Romney- a greater emphasis on the economy, and a lesser emphasis on social and foreign policy issues) -- Both nominees try to unite the party

Stage 6: The National Party Conventions -- President and Vice-President nominated (Balance the Ticket) -- Party Platform is adopted -- Public Relations is very important (Get popular speakers: Obama gets Bill Clinton while Romney gets Clint Eastwood) -- Keynote speech by presidential nominees are very important! (Kerry is seen “sweating” while giving his speech in 2004- this is not good!)