Stockton/San Joaquin County Ceasefire Summary & Update August 2013 SOMETHING IN TITLE RE SUCCEEDING IN OAKLAND?

The context: summary Over the past 28 years, Stockton has averaged 40 homicides per year. Its violent crime rate is consistently double – and sometimes more than triple – the state average. Over the past five years, homicides have reached an average of 47 per year and a high of 71. Anthony Braga, a criminologist at Harvard and Rutgers University, found that during the implementation of “Ceasefire I” in Stockton (1998-2002), overall homicide was reduced by 43%. This was the longest period of sustained reductions in the past 28 years. During that period, homicides averaged 31 per year. (Today we’ll be talking about Ceasefire II.)

The context: violent crime in Stockton

Context: Groups play a key role Historically, gangs, sets, crews and other groups play a significant role in violent crime in Stockton. These active groups and individuals play a role in over 60% and up to 80% of the homicides in Stockton. There are 34+/- groups citywide, but over the past two years only 18 have been actively violent. These 18 groups have a current membership of approximately 700 – even fewer of these individuals are at very highest risk of violence at any one time.

Findings: Summary of group member-involved violence

Ceasefire: the Research 12/19/2017 Ceasefire: the Research Study Main Outcome Boston Operation Ceasefire -63% youth homicide Indianapolis IVRP -34% total homicide Stockton Operation Peacekeeper -42% gun homicide Lowell PSN -44% gun assaults Cincinnati CIRV -42% GMI homicide, -22% nonfatal shootings Newark Ceasefire No sig. reduction in gunshot wound incidents LA Operation Ceasefire Sig. short-term reduction in violent, gun crime Chicago PSN -37% homicide, -30% recidivism rate High Point DMIs 3 of 4 neighborhoods had -44%-56% in part I UCR crime; all up to -74% in drug offenses Nashville DMI -55% reduction in drug offenses Rockford DMI -22% non-violent offenses Hawaii HOPE -26% recidivism rate Boston Re-entry Init. -30% recidivism for violent crime

Ceasefire: the research (2) Effective – imagine flipping a coin 13 times & getting heads 12 times – effective across different cities, groups & economic conditions. Driven by communication: Makes highest-risk individuals & groups aware of the personal & community costs involved in violence by sharing in a direct, respectful manner. Ceasefire’s hard. Many cities that start fail to fully implement/sustain. Long term correlations between quality of implementation & results (Boston, Cincinnati).

The role of direct communication Percentage decrease in Log(Homicide Rate) associated with a one-unit increase in PSN “treatment” -1 -40.1 -2.2 -2.7 -0.8 -11 -45 -40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 5 10 Control Variables Forums Gun Recoveries Prosecutions Sentence Length Combined Effect Numbers are meaningless here….point is the magnitude: forums having biggest effect. BUT, remember that this is a PER GUN number. Translated in English: 100 guns = 1 body. That’s actually pretty big if you consider Chi recovers an AVERAGE of 14,000 guns a year. In Chicago, the impact of direct communication (“call-ins”) on violence was the most powerful part of the strategy. **N.B.: Random Effects Poisson Regression

What we mean by “communication” SMALL MEETINGS: “CALL INS” Places of community importance: churches, community centers. Seating: square or circle. Highest-risk young men (& families, supporters): 5-20+. Neighborhood leaders, formerly incarcerated, LE speak: 8-10, to the point (3-4 mins), 1 hr max. Message: we care about & respect you, cost of violence to them & community (including consequences): no lectures/scare tactics: clearly stated that violence must stop SCP

Call-Ins: The Basic Set Up Supporters Time-keeper

Call-ins: Speaker Order CO-HOSTS: CLERGY LEADER, POLICE CHIEF FORMERLY-INCARCERATED COMMUNITY LEADER FORMERLY- INCARCERATED COMMUNITY LEADER CLERGY/SPIRITUAL LEADER VICTIM OF VIOLENCE HIGH SCHOOL PRINCIPAL PD REP DISTRICT ATTORNEY: PROBATION OFFICER: US ATTORNEY: CO-HOSTS: SUMMARIZE MESSAGING… (…TRANSITION TO DINNER, STATEMENTS OF COMMITMENT BY SERVICE PROVIDERS & CONVERSATIONS W/COMMUNITY VOLUNTEERS) 45 Min TOTAL

Implementation update, early results Night walks begin in fall 2012. One-on-one Ceasefire messaging begins in mid- November 2012. Call-ins convened on April 11 & August 8, with next scheduled for November 2013 (Analysis is ongoing, including May 7, 2013 SPD/Probation Dept. Social Network Analysis workshop w/Andrew Papachristos of Yale University. YTD 2013 homicides are down approx. 60% compared to 2012, YTD non-fatal injury shootings are down approx. 50%.

ANALYZE PROBLEM/ ASSESS RESULTS TAILOR APPROACH TO STREET DYNAMIC Next steps: institutionalize & expand reach, with continued focus on core implementation cycle ANALYZE PROBLEM/ ASSESS RESULTS TAILOR APPROACH TO STREET DYNAMIC COMMUNICATE FOLLOW THROUGH