E-Mobility Challenges and Opportunities Karoline Augenstein, Wuppertal Institut E-Mobility Challenges and Opportunities Managing Decarbonization| 27-28 October 2016 | Vancouver

E-mobility and the Status Quo: Challenges and Opportunities vs. Challenges Energy transition E-Mobility Mobility transition Storage space for renewable energy Decarbonized transport Innovation and infrastructure New business models Number of new EV registrations in Germany 2003-2016 Fuel type Vehicle stock (2016) Percentage share (2016) Gasoline 29,825,223 66% Diesel 14,532,426 32% LPG 475,711 1% CNG 80,300 0.2% Electric 25,502 0.06% Hybrid 130,365 0.3% Passenger car stock by fuel type in Germany 1/2016 Source: KBA/Statista (2016) 10/28/2016 MD Conference

E-mobility: Perspectives on decarbonization and sustainable mobility Can the introduction and diffusion of electric vehicles provide a solution to sustainability problems? Problems with the diffusion of electric vehicles: High production costs and sales price Limited range Lacking infrastructure Diffusion of electric vehicles is not sufficient: Renewable energy sources are needed Resource use aspects need to be addressed Congestion in urban areas needs to be tackled What is the potential for e-mobility to emerge as a sustainable system innovation? 10/28/2016 MD Conference

The concept of system innovation “A system innovation can be understood as a change from one socio-technical system to another. One aspect of a system innovation is technological substitution, the replacement of old by new technology. The second aspect is co-evolution. System innovations not only involve technological substitutions, but also changes in elements such as user practices, regulation, industrial networks, infrastructure, and cultural meaning. The third aspect is the emergence of new functionalities.” (Geels, 2004, p. 19 f.) 10/28/2016 MD Conference

Analyzing system innovation: Multi-Level Perspective on Transitions Source: Multi-level perspective on transitions (Geels/Schot, 2010, p. 25) 10/28/2016 MD Conference

Integrated Framework: Transformative Capacity for system innovation of new technologies Determined by changes of the: technological profile; (in)formal institutions; patterns of interaction; system boundaries. 10/28/2016 MD Conference

Integrated Framework: Transformative Capacity for system innovation of new technologies System Adaptability Determined by changes of the: technological profile; (in)formal institutions; patterns of interaction; system boundaries. Determined by tensions in the regime: within rule systems: interpretive schemes, norms and guiding principles; within patterns of resource allocation: power constellations, distribution of economic and political power. 10/28/2016 MD Conference

Integrated Framework: Transformative Capacity for system innovation of new technologies System Adaptability Determined by changes of the: technological profile; (in)formal institutions; patterns of interaction; system boundaries. Determined by tensions in the regime: within rule systems: interpretive schemes, norms and guiding principles; within patterns of resource allocation: power constellations, distribution of economic and political power. Patterns of Transformation System Innovation Unit of analysis: socio-technical regime System innovation defined as regime change 10/28/2016 MD Conference

E-Mobility and the case of Germany Hype and disappointment in the past New momentum since around 2007 Energy transition/“Energiewende” Advances in battery technology Economic crisis and pressure on the automotive industry Political pressure at the EU level National Development Plan for Electric Mobility (2009) Electric Mobility in Model Regions (2009-2011) Electric Mobility Showcases (2012-2015) 10/28/2016 MD Conference

Political goals and national funding programmes for E-Mobility in Germany – increasing system adaptability? National Platform Electric Mobility (NPE) “Traditional” approach to innovation and dominated by industry incumbents. Power train technology Framework conditions National Platform E-Mobility Battery technology Education/Qualification Infrastructure/Grid integration Standardization/Certification Materials/Recycling 10/28/2016 MD Conference

Political goals and national funding programmes for E-Mobility in Germany – increasing system adaptability? National Platform Electric Mobility (NPE) “Traditional” approach to innovation and dominated by industry incumbents. Electric Mobility in Model Regions Less than 50% of public funding goes to “system-innovative” projects. Power train technology Framework conditions National Platform E-Mobility Battery technology Education/Qualification Infrastructure/Grid integration Standardization/Certification Materials/Recycling 10/28/2016 MD Conference

Political goals and national funding programmes for E-Mobility in Germany – increasing system adaptability? National Platform Electric Mobility (NPE) “Traditional” approach to innovation and dominated by industry incumbents. Electric Mobility in Model Regions Less than 50% of public funding goes to “system-innovative” projects. Power train technology Framework conditions National Platform E-Mobility Battery technology Education/Qualification Infrastructure/Grid integration Standardization/Certification Materials/Recycling Electric Mobility Showcases Critical mass of vehicles to be deployed More systemic approach, e.g. focus on intermodality, fleet applications, urban planning, integration via ICT 10/28/2016 MD Conference

Discourses around e-mobility: Conflicting goals Positive discourse on future perspectives of e-mobility “Win-win”: sustainability and industry transition Sector convergence (automotive – energy – ICT) Focus on intermodal mobility concepts as the solution to price, range and charging problems Discrepancy between future visions and current strategies Focus on technological innovation (battery and vehicle technology) as the solution to price, range and charging problems 10/28/2016 MD Conference 13

Lessons learnt from the German case Potential for system innovation is emerging in Showcase Region Projects: Expected patterns of cooperation between automotive, energy and ICT actors hardly emerge. Potential for system innovation is more likely to be found in projects carried out by “outsiders” (e.g. housing companies, public transport companies, municipal actors and associations). A crucial role is played by coordinating agencies facilitating stable networks in an innovation system. System adaptability appears to increase not by (incumbent) cross-sector cooperation or typical niche actors, but rather through the involvement of “powerful outsiders”. 10/28/2016 MD Conference

E-mobility – a “captured niche“? Initiated “top-down” with high influence of established actors, strategically positioning themselves in the niche. Funding instruments aim at technological development and demonstration – rather than experiments. Potential for system innovation emerges where: Specific funding programs have a more systemic outlook Powerful outsiders are involved Coordinating actors have a relevant influence Analyzing system innovations requires a good understanding of socio- technical co-evolution. New perspective on technological shortcomings of electric cars: indicating transformative capacity. 10/28/2016 MD Conference

Thank you! karoline.augenstein@wupperinst.org 10/28/2016 MD Conference