Analysis of winning and losing the bronze medal in International Women’s Judo Competitions. Geert Claes (University of Chichester) Dr. Mike Callan (University of Chichester)

The importance of the bronze medal in judo ? Olympic Bronze medals by discipline 1992 – 2016.

How to get a bronze medal in judo ? Only the contestants who reached the quarter final From losing the quarter final : loser’s pool or ‘repechage’ Finally : contest against the loser of the opposite semi-final Winner of this fight wins the bronze Other Olympic sports with 2 bronze medal winners: Boxing, Taekwondo, Wrestling Freestyle & Wrestling Greco-Roman.

Losing before quarter final = no repechage Losers quarter final = repechage Loser semi final Loser semi final

Losers quarter final = repechage Women +78 Kg Losers quarter final = repechage Loser semi final Loser semi final

Importance of a Ranking List Evidenced based information to support the development of a players career (Reid et al.2014) Indication for selection of a lower ranked judoka to increase the probability of a medal (Krumer, 2017) World Ranking List represents the most accurate prediction of Olympic Result (Lascau & Rosu, 2013). Contradicted by Franchini, 2015

The IJF Ranking List Is inspired by the ATP Tennis Tour (Franchini & Julio 2015). Points for results of the previous 12 mths 50 % of the points for results looking back 13 – 24 mths. An athlete can be seeded (protected) in the draw

Approach for this work: Analysis of the WRL (IJF) to find the main determining factors to obtain the bronze for female judoka’s (period 2013 – 2016). - Analysis of 1.763 bronze medal fights - The use of two major rankings lists : result each time analysed with the IJF - ranking list at the end of the previous year and with the IJF - ranking list at the end of the competitions’ year.

1. Winner and loser effect: Documented in a large number of animal studies (Oyegbile et al., 2005 – Fuxjager et al., 2011- Fuxjager et al., 2013 - Altmann & Alberts, 2015) – Goubault et al., 2012 . Sports related : mainly studies about the correlations amongs factors of winning/losing. (Aldridge & Lynley, 2012 – Wilson, 1999) Few studies in human competitions : ‘hot hand fallacy” for many years not evidenced but recently mixed evidence (Page & Coates, 2017)

1. Winner and loser effect: Referencing period : loser semi final his last fight before the bronze medal fight was always a loss – the last fight of the opponent is always a win . Total 1.763 fights : loser semi final wins in average over the 4 years in 58,14 % of the fights the bronze. Ranking list (beginning year or end year) has no influence in this comparison.

1. Winner and loser effect: This is opposite to the ‘winner effect’, even when comparing the different weight categories.

2.Colour of judogi: In his work ‘Theory of Colours’ von Goethe (von Goethe, 1810) described the influence of colors on emotional experience. Matsumoto et al, 2007 : males but not females have a winning bias, wearing a blue judogi Confirmed by Julio et al, 2015 Critised by Dijkstra & Preenen (2008) because top seeded athletes were given blue

2.Colour of judogi: Elliot, 2015 : most of the studies are related to red colour; mainly team sports (Garcia-Rubio et al., 2011, 2005, Ilie et al, 2008 – Abramov & Gordon, 1994). Only a minor number about other colors ex. Black and white (Caldwell & Burger, 2011). Elliot, 2015 : review of theoretical and empirical work of colours and psychological fuctioning : existing theoretical / empirical work is at early stage of development with a number of weaknesses.

2.Colour of judogi: For the referencing period (loser semi-final is always blue) : total fights 1.763 Blue won in average 58,14 %; this is in line with the ‘blue effect’ but in those cases the highest ranked judoka won 70,16 % - ranking at the end of the actual year - (this confirms the study of Dijkstra). Even if compared with the ranking at the end of the previous year, the highest ranked won 61,27 % of the bronze medal fights which is still higher than the ‘blue’.

3.Consistency: bronze medal & ranking list for 2013 - 2016: Ranking end of actual competition year : The highest ranked judoka wins in average 70,16 % the bronze medal (from 67,22  75,36 %). The loser of the semi-final wins in average 58,14 % the bronze medal (from 51,34 %  63,90 %). The highest ranked bronze is always higher than the bronze winning loser of the semi-final. The linear evolution shows that differences are higher in the beginning of the Olympic Cycle compared to the end of the Olympic Cycle.

3.Consistency: bronze medal & ranking list for 2013 - 2016: Ranking end of the previous competition year : The highest ranked judoka wins in average 61,27 % the bronze medal (from 54,05  61,86 %). The loser of the semi-final wins in average 58,14 % the bronze medal (from 51,34 %  63,90 %). The highest ranked bronze is not always higher than the bronze winning loser of the semi-final but the lineair evolution is almost equal. The linear evolution shows that differences are higher in the beginning of the Olympic Cycle compared to the end of the Olympic Cycle.

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