Good news, driverless vehicles biggest ever traffic safety improvement; Bad news, 30 million deaths by 2050 Leonard Evans President, Science Serving Society President-Emeritus, International Traffic Medicine Association (ITMA) Bloomfield Hills, Michigan, USA

This not research findings This not research findings – but rather some judgmental observations about the future of traffic safety This not research findings As with all predictions about the future, there is pretty good chance they are wrong 2

This presentation about neither This presentation about neither – but rather some judgmental observations about the future of traffic safety This presentation about neither As with all predictions about the future, there is pretty good chance they are wrong 3

This presentation about neither This presentation about neither – but rather some judgmental observations about the future of traffic safety This presentation about neither As with all predictions about the future, there is pretty good chance they are wrong 4

Elevator history

But eventually the driverless elevator became universally accepted

Driverless trains now widely acccepted

Airline safety:  Crashes very rare  Nearly all preventable if pilot replaced by automatic system  But, passengers reluctant to board a driverless aircraft

Road traffic  About 200 million crashes occur annually on world’s roads  These kill over a million road users  Victims mainly healthy young males 9

Road traffic  About 200 million crashes occur annually on world’s roads  These kill over a million road users  Victims mainly healthy young males – but include large numbers of babies, infants, children, old people, etc. 10

A clear picture has resulted Science has been applied for over 80 years to better understand traffic crashes A clear picture has resulted 11

UK and US large scale studies performed in 1970s 12

UK and US large scale studies performed in 1970s 4 6 27 24 3 1 road user environment vehicle 2 57 65 28 / 34 95 94 8 12 US UK UK and US large scale studies performed in 1970s 13

UK and US large scale studies performed in 1970s 4 6 27 24 3 1 road user environment vehicle 2 57 65 28 / 34 95 94 8 12 US UK UK and US large scale studies performed in 1970s 14

4 6 27 24 3 1 road user environment vehicle 2 57 65 28 / 34 95 94 8 12 UK 15

4 6 27 24 3 1 road user environment vehicle 2 57 65 28 / 34 95 94 8 12 UK 16

4 6 27 24 3 1 road user environment vehicle 2 57 65 28 / 34 95 94 8 12 UK 2 17

US study supported by NHTSA 4 6 27 24 3 1 road user environment vehicle 2 57 65 28 / 34 95 94 8 12 US UK 2 US study supported by NHTSA 18

USA has obsessively focused on vehicles USA priorities are not random - they are almost perfectly opposite to where benefits are greatest USA has obsessively focused on vehicles And continues to focus narrowly on vehicles and other technological factors I suggested, in AJPH, that the: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration would be better named the National Highway Vehicle Safety Administration 19

Most basic scientific findings can be summarized as:  Vehicle factors are important 20 20

Most basic scientific findings can be summarized as:  Vehicle factors are important, but less important than roadway factors 21 21

Most basic scientific findings can be summarized as:  Vehicle factors are important, but less important than roadway factors  Roadway factors are important 22 22

Most basic scientific findings can be summarized as:  Vehicle factors are important, but less important than roadway factors  Roadway factors are important, but less important than driver performance factors 23 23

Most basic scientific findings can be summarized as:  Vehicle factors are important, but less important than roadway factors  Roadway factors are important, but less important than driver performance factors  Driver performance factors are importantctors 24 24

Most basic scientific findings can be summarized as:  Vehicle factors are important, but less important than roadway factors  Roadway factors are important, but less important than driver performance factors  Driver performance factors are important, but less important than driver behavior factorsfactors 25 25

Consequence of US focus on vehicles provides a lesson for the world  From 1972 to 2015 US traffic fatalities declined by 35.7 %  Every one of the other 25 countries in an international data base had far larger declines (average decline 75.0%)  9 countries had declines >80% 26

US is extreme outlier having far worse safety than any of the 25 other countries

 Driver behavior is at heart of traffic crash problem Conclusions  Driver behavior is at heart of traffic crash problem  The only way to dramatically reduce crash risk is to remove drivers 28

autonomous vehicles

Big difference – human vs autonomous  Each generation of humans has much in common with previous generations  Humanity doesn’t learn much from experience  Computer-based systems keep improving  So crash risk for autonomous vehicle can keep declining, generating more dramatic safety improvements than ever 30

Sensible traffic-safety law sensibly enforced Good news  Technology will produce ground vehicles with crash experience approaching that of aircraft Bad news  On the world’s roads there are more than a billion vehicles driven by humans  Even under the most optimistic assumptions, it will take many decades to replace most of them with new technology  Main safety research should focus on policies that address driver behavior  For many decades to come the most effective way to reduce harm in traffic remains Sensible traffic-safety law sensibly enforced 31