Oceanic Observation and Typhoon Forecast in CMA Xiaoxia Li, Meteorological Observation Center, CMA Hua Gu , National Meteorological Center, CMA NPOMS-4, Busan Korea, 2-4 November 2015

Outline Oceanic Observation Typhoon Forecast

Oceanic Observation in CMA Oceanic observations in CMA mainly rely on the following ways: Moored buoys The Coastal-Marine Automated Weather Station(AWS) Shipping AWS Weather radars、 Wind profiler radars、GNSS/MET stations、Synthesized experiment bases、satellites and so on.

Moored buoy There are approximately 31 moored buoys. They are deployed in the coastal and offshore waters, mainly within 200km.

3-meter moored buoy(Dalian) 10-meter moored buoy(Hebei) Mainly measure barometric pressure, wind direction, speed, visibility, air and sea temperature, salinity, and wave energy spectra from which significant wave height, dominant wave period, and average wave period are derived. Even the direction of wave propagation is measured on moored buoys. CMA's moored buoys maily include 2 types: 3-m and 10-m.

(2) The Coastal-Marine Automated Weather Station There are nearly 400 Automated Weather Stations. It includes stations which located in Coastal-Marine and some oil platforms. The quantity of the stations on land are more than 1000.

AWS station data typically include barometric pressure, wind direction, speed, precipitation, relative humidity, and air temperature; however, some AWS stations are designed to also measure visibility. Most data are processed and transmitted real-time to users. In addition to the conventional method of data transmission, certain AWS stations are equipped with modems that allow more conveniently transmit.

(3) Shipping AWS There are approximately 50 stations on board. However, due to complex ship resources and some other reasons, the utilization of shipping AWS is not efficient. It’s important for us to advance.

(4) Synthesized experiment base CMA gradually build synthesized experiment bases in recent years, for example in Maoming, guangdong province. 100-meter iron tower Total height: 53m The platform height: 28m

(4) Synthesized experiment base(continued) There are many types of equipment on the experiment base. Such as Wind profiler radar, radiometrics, AWS, visibility equipment, moored buoy, and so on.

(5) The designing drift buoy CMA have no drifters run till now. We are doing some research in designing the drifters which would meet the observation and forecast requirements. The drifter would be designed to measure barometric pressure, wind direction, speed, air and sea temperature and salinity.

Outline Oceanic Observation Typhoon Forecast

Typhoon Forecast in CMA Main tasks of typhoon subjective forecast in CMA Typhoon monitoring and warning services for Northwest Pacific and the South China Sea Typhoon Track and Intensity forecasts/GTS reports, fax, bulletins, alerts, newsletters Bay of Bengal storms monitoring and forecasting 48-h forecasts and bulletins

Recent improvements in Typhoon Forecast 1） Enlargement of warning areas TC Warning Areas in 2013 TC Warning Areas in 2014 Since April 18th 2014, the 24h warning areas entirely includes the South China Sea and 48h warning areas is also enlarged correspondingly.

Recent improvements in Typhoon Forecast 2）Increasing forecast frequency during 0-24h 18h 06h 24h 12h

Recent improvements in Typhoon Forecast 3）Including gale wind radii analysis in four quadrants WTPQ BABJ160000 SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS NOGURI 0801 (0801) INITIAL TIME 160000 UTC 00HR 13.1N 113.1E 985HPA 75M/S 30KT WINDS 200KM NORTHEAST 180KM SOUTHEAST 150KM SOUTHWEST 120KM NORTHWEST 50KT WINDS 80KM NORTHEAST 80KM SOUTHEAST 80KM SOUTHWEST 80KM NORTHWEST 64KT WINDS 40KM NORTHEAST 40KM SOUTHEAST 40KM SOUTHWEST 40KM NORTHWEST MOVE WNW 25KM/H P+06HR 13.9N 113.4E 985HPA 25M/S P+12HR 15.0N 111.7E 980HPA 30M/S P+18HR 15.9N 111.2E 980HPA 30M/S P+24HR 16.4N 110.5E 975HPA 33M/S P+36HR 17.7N 109.7E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 18.8N 109.1E 985HPA 25M/S P+60HR 19.7N 109.1E 985HPA 25M/S P+72HR 20.7N 109.2E 990HPA 23M/S P+96HR 22.3N 110.1E 995HPA 18M/S P+120HR 23.8N 111.6E 1000HPA 16M/S 34kt wind radii 50kt wind radii 34kt wind radii 50kt wind radii 65kt wind radii Before After

Recent improvements in Typhoon Forecast Before After

Recent improvements in Typhoon Forecast 4）TC intensity certification based on DVORAK technique Specialized training and workshop on Dvorak technique Improvements of Satellite monitoring system Make our operational TCs intensities more reliable

Up to 15 Oct. 2015 During the period of 2011-2015, China Meteorological Administration (CMA) has sustained a steadily descending trend for typhoon track forecast errors. As of 15 October 2015, the 24h-120h typhoon track forecast errors were 66 km, 116 km, 174 km, 238 km and 329 km

During the period of 1 January to 15 October 2015, the Northwest Pacific and the South China Sea registered 25 tropical cyclones. 6 of them made landfall over China's coastal areas

Up to 15 October 2015, 8 tropical cyclones had affected China, and 6 of them made landfall. Typhoon MUJIGAE is the strongest typhoon landed on China in 2015. Of the six typhoons, SOUDELOR claimed the most affected population, death toll, missing person, emergency aiding population, damaged home, and MUJIGAE claimed the most direct economic loss.

Up to 15 Oct. 2015 Statistics of evacuated people in emergency responses to potential typhoon-induced disasters in 2015

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