Clean electricity options for a free Burma Chris Greacen Palang Thai Seminar on “Energy: Tragedy in Burma” 20 November 2007 Chulalongkorn University

Outline Default scenarios Addressing the Thai side For revenue: Mega dams, gas exports For electrification: power imports & diesel generation Addressing the Thai side Removing bias in load forecasting Consider clean, decentralized options on level playing field Addressing the Burma side Some clean community energy options

Planned megadams to export electricity to Thailand Tasang 7,000 MW Upper Salween 4,000 MW Lower Salween 500 MW Hut Gyi 1,200 MW Yawatit 600 MW Tanaosri 720 MW Burma government plans to sell a lot of hydropower electricity to Thailand International Water Power & Dam Construction featured Burma as “Southeast Asia’s last great hydropower frontier” The Burmese Ministry of Electric Power has identified 268 sites

Natural gas Used to make 71% of Thailand’s electricity (among highest in world) 1/3 of gas used in Thailand comes from Burma 20% of our (Thai) electricity bills pay for Burmese gas Single largest source of revenue to Burmese military government Accounts for fully half of Burma’s exports in 2006 US$2.16 billion to junta from Thailand. Total, Chevron, PTTEP, Petronas, Nippon Oil, etc. Used to make 71% of Thailand’s electricity (among highest in world) Source: Eamrungroj, S. (2006). Natural Gas Market and Transmission Pipelines Updates. Thai Power 2006, Sukhothai Hotel, Bangkok. Source: Burma: Foreign Investment Finances Regime. Human Rights Watch. 2007. www.hrw.org/english/docs/2007/10/01/burma16995.htm

Sell electricity to Thailand cheap, buy back expensive 1 baht/kWh 8 baht/kWh 2 baht/kWh Thailand sells electricity to (Poipet) Cambodian concession holder at <3 baht/kWh. This electricity resold at >8 baht/kWh to Poipet customers. A similar pattern might happen in Burma in the future.

Diesel Diesel is more expensive – 15 baht/kWh or more. Here’s a typical (dirty) diesel in a village application.

Can we imagine something different?

Addressing the Thai side: 1) Remove bias in Thailand’s load forecasting

Demand growth has been linear over the past 20 years… The R-square with a linear fit is extremely good – 0.989.

But official Thai load forecasts are always exponential… 14,500 MW is more than all the proposed Burma dams put together.

… so they always overestimate actual demand, building power plants that aren’t needed… including new hydropower in Burma… The red line is the actual peak. All the other lines are forecasts.

Addressing the Thai side: 2) Consider clean, decentralized options on level playing field

Summary of PDP 2007 Options considered consist of only gas, coal, nuclear, and power purchase from other countries. A tiny, fixed amount of DSM and renewables are included, but they are not allowed to compete with the centralized options.

Saving electricity is cheaper than generating it Demand Side Management (saving electricity) 1.5 Actual 10-year DSM average cost!!! Source: The World Bank (1993)

The Arun-3 story Planned 201 MW hydro in Nepal Sell electricity to India, rural electrification Nepalese NGOs and small business: “Micro-hydropower cheaper, better for local economy” World Bank pulled out of project, project cancelled 10 years later…the Nepali power system has seen the addition of: over a 1/3 more capacity than the Arun-3 at ½ the cost In ½ the time it would have taken to complete Arun-3

Addressing the Burma side: (… besides the political and human rights problems…) 1) clean, decentralized energy options – especially for rural applications

Renewable energy fuels and uses End use Electricity Mech power / pumping Water heating Cooking Transportation Technology Off-grid On-grid Biomass Gasifier ● Biogas Steam turbine Direct combustion Biodiesel or ethanol Micro-hydro Solar Wind

Biogas from Pig Farms Reduces air and water pollution Produces fertilizer Produces electricity 8 x 70 kW generator Ratchaburi Subsidy: 0.3 baht/kwh Biogas from Pig Farms

Biomass Gasification Rice mill in Nakorn Sawan 400 kW

Gasifier electricity from wood

Biodiesel

Efficient Charcoal

Micro-hydroelectricity Micro-hydropower is particularly appropriate for much of rural Burma, and is a technology I”ve been working with a lot lately. For those not familiar with micro-hydro, here’s a simple diagram. A small weir diverts water into a pipe. The water flows down hill and spins a turbine, making electricity. Source: Inversin, A. R. (1986). Micro-Hydropower Sourcebook.

Micro-hydropower is suitable for both grid-connected and off-grid electricity. This 40 kW installation in Mae Kam Pong village in Chiang Mai province is producing electricity that is providing electricity to the Provincial Electricity Authority (PEA). Eventually revenues from electricity sales will go to the village micro-hydropower cooperative. The project produces about 400,000 baht per year worth of electricity.

This installation in Mae Kam Pong is not connected to the national grid. It provides electricity directly to about 190 village households. This installation is one of 60 built as a joint project between villagers and the DEDE. 2 @ 20 kW (one pelton, one crossflow) Weir: 2 meters high, 15 meters wide Headrace: 300 mm concrete, 470 meters long Penstock: 300 mm steel, 100 meters long Head: 55 meters Max flow: 120 liters/sec Distribution system: 12 km Transmission voltage: 3.5 kV 190 households 3.99 million baht. Finished in year 2526 (1983). 99,725 baht per kW

This is a much smaller installation – a 3 kW installation that uses a centrifugal pump running backwards as a turbine. The installation is at Huai Kra Thing village, Mae Ramat Amphur, in Tak Province. The pump’s motor is run backwards as a generator. This kind of installation requires some custom electronics, but works quite well. An advantage is that repairs to pumps are easy – Thai mechanics are familiar with pumps. Huai Krating, Tak Province, Thailand Power: 3 kW Head: 35 meter Flow: 20 liters/second

This is an even smaller installation – generating about 1 kW for a school, clinic, and community center in Kre Khi village, Tha Song Yang amphur, Tak Province. It uses a Chinese turgo, which is available for about 10,000 baht. It uses about 15 liters/second of water, and has a head of about 10 meters.

This tiny installation generates 200 watts, and powers lights in a youth training center in Baan Klang Luang village, Doi Inthanon, Chiang Mai. The turbine, purchased from Vietnam, cost 4,000 baht. It is powered by water falling about 1.7 meters. 3000 baht in Vietnam 2000 baht in Laos 200 watt

Hydraulic ram pump www.agr.gc.ca

Hydraulic ram pump

Solar cooking

Solar electricity – off-grid 25,000 baht per household system 120 watts Electricity for 2 lights + TV

Thai solar home systems The Thai government last year started a massive solar home system program, providing a solar panel and battery for each unelectrified household in the country. There’s over 203,000 systems, installed at a cost to tax payers of about $200 million. These systems have had some sustainabilty problems because equipement that was used was not that good. But it represents an admirable effort nonetheless. 203,000 solar home systems Sustainability challenge

Solar water heating

Ruggedized solar electric systems built by Karen medics in 3-5 day hands-on trainings >90 medics trained 35 clinics There are also a handful of primitive medical clinics. One small part of the medical challenges in the area is that there is no electricity. We provide ruggedized solar electric systems that provide lights for nighttime procedures, as well as power to charge radio batteries. We also provide 3-5 day trainings on how to build, manage and repair the systems.

(0.25) Here medics are setting a solar electric system up in a remote clinic. Patients treated in a clinic with solar electricity we provided.

Solar for computer training centers in seven Karen refugee camps 1 kW PV hybrid with diesel generator Each powers 12 computers Solar now powers computer training centers in seven refugee camps.

Thank you For more information, please contact chris@palangthai.org This presentation available at: www.palangthai.org/docs