Presentation to TMC Government Affairs Council November 15, 2016 Robert D. Miller, Partner Houston

Today’s Discussion National elections Texas elections Local elections Political Observations

President Trump won 306 electoral votes; Clinton won 232 Trump carried 30 states plus Maine CD 2 Clinton carried 20 states As of Sunday afternoon, Clinton was winning the popular vote 47.8% to 47.3% Trump carried Texas by a margin of 52.5% to 43.2%

President

United States Senate Previously, 54 Republicans and 44 Democrats, with 2 Independents who caucus with the Democrats 34 Senate seats were on the November 8 ballot 24 held by Republicans; 10 held by Democrats 7 senate elections were in states carried by President Obama in 2012 – FL, IA, IL, NH, OH, PA, WI Democrats needed to pick up 5 seats net to gain majority control; Democrats picked up 2 seats -- IL and NH

United States Senate Louisiana Runoff election – December 10, 2016 Republican State Treasurer John Kennedy is the likely winner Final results for the Senate are likely to be 52 Republicans 48 Democrats (including 2 independents)

United States Senate

United States Senate -- 2018 Democrats must defend 25 senate seat compared to 8 for the Republicans 10 of the Democratic seats are in states carried by President-elect Trump: FL, IN, MI, MO, MT, ND, OH, PA, WI, WV

U. S. House of Representatives Currently, 247 Republicans and 188 Democrats All 435 seats on the ballot Democrats needed to pick up 30 seats As of Sunday afternoon, it was 238 Republicans and 193 Democrats, with 4 seats still being counted Likely will end up 241 Republicans and 194 Democrats 6 seat pick up for the Democrats

U. S. House of Representatives

Governors and State Legislatures Republicans netted an additional 2 governors Republicans now hold 33 governor seats compared to 16 for Democrats (Alaska is held by an independent) Republicans now control 68 legislative bodies compared to 31 for Democrats (Nebraska is unicameral) Republicans now have 25 trifectas (control governor and both legislative bodies) compared to 6 for Democrats

Governors and State Legislatures

Texas Elections All of the statewide Republicans won easily Last time Democrats won a statewide race was 1994 Senate remains the same: 20 R – 11 D Democrats picked up four seats in Texas House Next session it will be 95 R – 55 D

Texas Elections

Harris County Democrats swept all of the county-wide races, including Sheriff, District Attorney, Tax Assessor-Collector and 24 District Judges Clinton carried the county 54.2% to 41.8% In 2012, Obama carried the county 49.39% to 49.31% for Romney

Houston ISD Proposition One For 37.35% Against 62.65% HISD was seeking approval to begin paying $162 million in recapture to the state beginning next spring Now, approximately $18 billion in commercial property will be “detached” for tax purposes beginning July 2017

Political Observations Big Texas winner: Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick Potentially big Texas loser: Sen. Ted Cruz Texas Democrats’ pace to statewide competitiveness continues to be glacial U. S. Supreme Court and Justice Department likely to continue to pare back Voting Rights Act (VRA) Republicans are likely to control Texas redistricting in 2021. With weakened or absent VRA, Republicans can perpetuate legislative control for another decade Harris County probably elects Republicans for the last time in 2018, a gubernatorial election year In 2020 and thereafter, Harris County will be Democratic

Conclusion/Q&A Robert D. Miller Locke Lord LLP 713.226.1186 rmiller@lockelord.com