Political Legitimacy – The acceptance by the people and leaders of an exchange of power from one leader to the next.

Was the election legitimate? When the popular vote declares one winner (Hillary Clinton) and the electoral college declares another (Donald Trump) there is usually an outpouring of sentiment to get rid of the electoral college. Donald Trump was widely criticized for saying he wasn’t sure if he’d accept the outcome of the election because this peaceful exchange of power is so critical to our democracy. When popular vote and electoral vote both declare the same winner – clearly there are no issues of legitimacy

Three kinds of elections Primaries/Caucuses – to determine who will run in the general election General Election – a contest between the chosen candidates of the party Policy elections – not national Referendums – voters can approve or disapprove of proposals made by the legislature ~ or approve or disapprove of proposed amendments to the state constitution Initiative petitions – Through a petition drive (with signatures of at least 10 percent of the voters that voted in the last election) an proposal to change the state constitution is added to the ballot.

Initiatives and Referendums Policy entrepreneurs often initiate ballot proposals They can be ordinary people with a particular passion

So how important are these campaigns we are spending ALL THIS MONEY ON? Political campaigns are less crucial in elections than most politicians believe. Reinforcement – Yes I still do like Democrats Activation – I love The Donald – I’m going to give him money Conversion – I was a Democrat – but I’m going to be a Republican So how is that working out? Reinforcement – helpful Activation – helpful Conversion – not so much…

Incumbents have substantial advantages starting with name recognition Most people have “selective perception” – they only pay attention to things they already agree with and they interpret events according to their predisposed ideas. Things like party identification influence voting the most and tend to make your identification stronger Incumbents have substantial advantages starting with name recognition If you want to be elected in MI – change your name to Levin or Ilitch

So are they (campaigns) useless? Wedge issues – one thing that may cause a person to select the opposing party in that election. If you passionately disagree with your preferred candidate on one issue – you may switch. Getting out the vote – targeting your audience in such a way that they feel compelled to vote. Democrats did not do this in this election. Republicans did not vote in higher numbers nor did they switch parties – the Dem’s simply did not get their voters out.

Who has suffrage? 15th Amendment – suffrage for blacks 19th Amendment – suffrage for women 26th Amendment – voting age dropped to 18 Non-Citizens cannot vote – even those here as permanent residents that work, own businesses and pay taxes Prisoners cannot vote Most parolees cannot vote 10 states permanently revoke the right to vote on felons

Why people don’t/do vote Have to take time off work or school Causes lost wages – so inadvertently expensive Some states have early voting to increase participation Absentee voting is also possible – but requires additional steps If you see big policy differences in the parties – you are more likely to vote If you have a high degree of political efficacy – you believe your vote matters – you are more likely to vote If you have a sense that voting is your civic duty you are more likely to vote

Voter Registration – a good idea? Decreases Voter Turnout Some states allow registration on election day MI requires you register ahead of time – as do most states Motor Voter Act requires states to allow eligible voters to register when they get their drivers license.

Politicians pay attention to groups that vote – so – who votes?

Who Votes? Education – more you have the more likely you are to vote – the single most important factor in determining who votes Age – older people are more likely to vote than younger people Race – Hispanics and Blacks are underrepresented largely due to low levels of education. Educated minorities are more likely to vote than whites of similar education level Gender – women turn out more than men Married/Single – Married people vote more than single people Government workers (like your favorite government teacher) – vote more than other professions. If you identify with several of these – you increase the likelihood of voting (elderly, educated and married)

Mandate Theory of Elections Follow the logic – Politicians like this theory People vote for one candidate over the other because they agree with the policy agenda of one candidate more than they agree with the policy agenda of the other The winner therefore has a “mandate” from the majority of the people Bush “When you win there is a feeling that the people have spoken and embraced your point of view and that’s what I intend to tell the Congress

Political Scientists don’t think much of the Mandate Theory Three things need to be considered How closely the voter identifies with a party Parties rely on groups that make up their coalition Voters don’t have to know every stance taken – they know where the party stands on issues that are meaningful to them and vote in accordance with that Fewer voters are actually aligned that closely with one party or the other anymore.

The voters’ evaluation of the candidate The voters’ evaluation of the candidate. What is the candidates image – what attributes do voters look for? Integrity (read morality – family/religious values)

Reliability (don’t be a flip-flopper)

Competence (incumbents have the advantage – think Obama and Sandy

The match between the voters’ policy positions and the candidates – policy voting. This type of voting can only occur if all four of the following are true: The voter has a clear sense of their own stand on policy issues The voter knows where the candidates stand on policy issues The voter sees the differences between the candidates stands on the issues The voter actually casts their vote based on which candidate lines up most closely with their own stand. These are what kind of voters? Many voters find they agree with one candidate on some issues and the other candidate on other issues

Candidates are often vague If you take too strong a stand – you lose voters If you don’t take a strong stand or don’t explain HOW you will accomplish your goals – you leave the voters puzzled The media spends most of it’s time focusing on the “horse race” not the issues.

Up until 1968 – candidates focused on party bosses who would give them the nomination.

Today candidate have to appeal to activists in the primaries – they have to take clear positions on issues.

Again Three Types of Voting Party voting (No issue content voter) Candidate Evaluation Voting (Nature of the Times/Group Benefits Voters) Policy Voting (Ideologues)

The Electoral College It was created to give the nation's elite the power to choose the president and vice president rather than the people directly. Electoral votes = # of Senators + Reps – Electors are picked by the party – seen as a reward All but Maine and Nebraska are winner take all Electors meet in their states in December and mail vote to the Vice President (because he is the president of the Senate) who announces the the new president in Congress No winner – the House picks from the top three electoral vote winners. Each state gets one vote. If you can’t compromise – NO VOTE

Small states are “over – represented” Each state gets the same number of electoral votes as they have representatives in the House. Since House representation is based on population – the states are equally represented. However – each state also gets an electoral vote for each Senator. Since all states have 2 senators – small states get as much say as big states. Small states are therefore over-represented in the Electoral College.

Battleground States Where the polls show that the contest is likely to be closest. AKA – swing states Should we make all states battlegrounds? Elect by popular vote What happens to small states What happens to counties in MI that have few people How important do California, Texas, New York, etc. become

The greater the difference between candidates – the more likely it is that voters will steer policy by their choices Candidates are not always clear – they talk around the issue instead of providing a clear choice Politicians are often ambiguous When politicians are clear – and voters elect them based on their stands – then the politician can follow through.

Retrospective Voting What have you done for me lately? Very much like “nature of the times” voting. People ask what the person in office has done most recently to improve their life. This impacts incumbents as a newcomer would have nothing to offer. The mid-term election in 2010 is a good example. The House lost the Democratic majority because people were unhappy with the pace of the recovery. The re-election of Obama was unusual in that the incumbent remained in office – even though most people were unhappy with current economic conditions.

Citizens in a Democracy look to benefit from the government If you believe as an individual that you can influence government action – then you concurrently believe that the government should have more power. Voters want the government to “accomplish” things for them As democracy increases – government responsibility increases and so too does the scope and size of government.