Lee-Anne McKinnell and Mpho Tshisaphungo Managing Director Space Science South African National Space Agency (SANSA) The Significance of Operational Space Weather Practices in the South African region

SPACE SCIENCE PROGRAMME AT SANSA Located in Hermanus operating as a Directorate of SANSA Part of the worldwide network of magnetic observatories. Responsible for research infrastructure and data which is used to monitor the near Earth space environment. Activities includes: fundamental and applied space science research, post-graduate student training, science advancement, and the provision of Space Weather and Magnetic Technology services.

SpAce weather

SPACE WEATHER: REGIONAL WARNING CENTRE FOR AFRICA Monitoring the Earth-Space system, predictions and forecasts Distributing data and creating new knowledge on the system

Space weather center Activities SW Forecast HF predictions Warning/Alert Bulletins Space weather research Model developments Expansion and usage of data network Weekly tours Information days Training

HF frequency predictions Space Weather Centre HF frequency predictions Space Weather Website Daily Space Weather bulletins Space Weather Warnings Space Weather Information to Defence, Energy, and Aviation sectors.

Space Weather Centre Provide forecasts, alerts and warnings to government, defence and the public Delivery of training courses to users Provision of space weather information Provision of applicable tools to assist users Building capacity through internships, bursaries etc Developing additional products/services in collaboration with research group Global partnerships to enhance space weather access (ISES) Focus has been on HF Communication impacts

DATA & infrastructure measuring space from the ground

SPACE WEATHER DATA Measuring space from the ground in support of space weather research and applications SANSA operates an extensive geophysical instrumentation network across Southern Africa, Antarctica and the Atlantic Islands This is complimented with available satellite data

GEOPHYSICAL LABORATORY PROVIDING THE DATA TO INVESTIGATE SPACE Ionosondes GPS receivers (dual frequency & scintillation) VLF receivers Doppler Radar Magnetometers (variation & pulsation) Riometer MT Stations Radar Lidar Lightning detectors Neutron Monitor

Space Science in Remote Areas Marion Gough SANAE

RESEARCH Building an application foundation

SPACE WEATHER RESEARCH Current Space Weather Research Projects Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs) - measuring and modelling High Frequency (HF) propagation paths frequency sensitivity analysis Ionospheric modelling and characterisation Thermospheric neutral density – using EISCAT radar Space Weather impacts on Aviation – understanding, service level development Economic benefits of space weather

IONOSPHERIC STORM-TIME INDEX FOR SOUTH AFRICA Using South African Ionosonde Data Modelling technique of neural networks Output is delta foF2 Scientific research towards the operational space weather product for user applications

GIC PROXY MODELLING Solar wind-based model performs well for initial storm phase During recovery magnetospheric reconfiguration drives the disturbance Such a model (SW-only inputs) cannot work for entire storm Magnetospheric, ionospheric input parameters are needed in real time

MT DATA ANALYSIS Utilising MT stations to provide surface impedance for GIC modelling 13 Stations deployed, 9 currently operational Data from 7 stations retrieved and results are being processed

ImPACT ON AVIATION Fairly new area for South Africa Create awareness and needs analysis within SA Aviation Sector Primarily focus on Airline communication; navigation & Avionics with some research into radiation impacts

INTERNATIONAL PARTNERSHIPS Working together to accelerate capacity and capability

SANSA - NRC SANSA – Natural Resources Canada (NRC) partnership started several years ago through the ISES relationship Covers both operational applications and research Has included forecaster exchange to South Africa Research has been mostly in Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs)

UKSA IPSP Project Partnership with the UK Met Office to share knowledge and develop operational capabilities: Participation in UKSA IPSP project SANSA visits to MO in August to October 2015 Daily teleconference between MOSWOC and SANSA since December 2015 Met Office Space Weather Advisors seconded to SANSA during January through to March 2016 Increased access to Space Weather models run at the Met Office including WSA-ENLIL

Space Weather Capacity Development Partnership with the DLR to develop capacity and interest in Space Weather 2016 Joint Space Weather Camp

CONCLUSION

FOCUS AREAs Focus areas include: Expand on services (e.g. in aviation) Solar flare and eruption prediction models Development of Regional Space Weather Models Establish Forecast Verification Methods Space weather data networks Economic benefit study Dst Index SANSA

INTERNATIONAL BENEFIT FOR SW OPERATIONAL REQUIREMENTS Benefits of working together: Forecaster exchange for skills development Sharing ideas for outreach activities around SW Forecast verification comparisons Providing data to international databases (INTERMAGNET, DIDBASE) Access to industry and industry requirements Participation in international research and operational projects

http://www.sansa.org.za http://spaceweather.sansa.org.za